Picking the wrong niche is one of the worst decisions you could make for your practice.
What distinguishes an overvalued market that continues to advance from an overvalued market that often drops like a rock? In my view, it’s the psychological disposition of investors toward speculation or risk-aversion.
An escalating China-U.S. trade war sent stocks reeling, as markets weighed potential impacts to U.S. consumer spending, corporate earnings and job growth.
In May the Congressional Budget office (CBO) updated its 10-year fiscal estimates for federal revenue, spending, and annual deficits through 2029. The CBO is a non partisan agency tasked with analyzing data to provide Congress estimates for GDP growth and the impact on government spending and revenue from changes in tax laws.
Once again Facebook is at the center of controversy, this time with its plans to introduce its own cryptocurrency, Libra. It must overcome four key challenges, however, and even then it is not clear what Facebook ultimately hopes to accomplish with this venture.
Say what you will about this past week, it certainly wasn’t dull. The Federal Reserve, seemingly capitulating to President Donald Trump and Wall Street, became just the latest central bank to cut interest rates.
One reason the economy is so fascinating is the way things just… happen. Growth blossoms if everyone just follows their own incentives and nothing gets in the way. The courage, vision and passion of entrepreneurs and those who risk their money backing them is one of the most inspiring aspects of modern civilization.
For the most part, the second quarter saw a continuation of the first quarter’s positive performance across many asset classes. This furthered a reversal of the dismal 2018 when every primary asset class was negative.
The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in over a decade today, but stocks still moved lower. Why?
The “dog days” of summer are upon us, and the “out of office” email bounce backs have increased accordingly. But while many Northern Hemisphere workers may be taking their summer breaks, the global economy continues to grind along.
With the pound sliding to two-year lows, currency markets are signalling a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit. But the fallout from no deal would hurt the rest of Europe, too, and add to downward pressure on euro-area bond yields.
Under today’s current market conditions, real assets may provide an opportunity for portfolio diversification and growth.
How does an advisor know when the time is right to merge their practice?
It was just over six months ago that we penned a piece about the then market sell-off, cautioning against knee-jerk reactions to short-term headlines such as “Worst December Since 1937” amongst others. Well, it did not take long.
The fact only roughly 1 in 20 annuity quotes include a COLA suggests that advisors are not considering, and retirees are not being provided with, information that is essential for determining the optimal annuity benefit payment structure.
The Fed is poised to join the global easing bandwagon, fueling a surge in risk asset prices. As market distortions from easy money grow, so does the importance of security selection and portfolio allocation.
Checklist, anyone? Here’s an unconventional but effective forecasting approach that uses a simple checklist. Instead of treating the business cycle as a single, uniform force, the approach pivots on six key component cycles.
I’m a firm believer that your thoughts manifest your future. It’s very hard to make money and be successful when you’re always expecting the worst to happen.
This week the economics team discusses: Surveying fiscal conditions as the FOMC prepares to meet; Japan gets aggressive in trade with South Korea; and One less fiscal worry for the U.S.
The financial press is replete with stories about what possible calamity awaits if the Federal Reserve (the Fed) does not cut the fed funds rate soon. Services that track the odds of a cut (at this writing) are calling with near certainty for one in July.
Global markets have taken heart from a truce in the trade war and signs of yet more monetary-policy stimulus. Easy money may well give a short-term lift to asset prices, but longer-term prospects look more challenging, especially for Europe.
Rick Rieder argues that anemic growth in Europe is a longstanding problem that today requires a bold solution. Institutionally, the ECB can offer potentially effective, if unconventional, help.
Boris Johnson, one of the most enthusiastic supporters of Brexit, is the United Kingdom’s new prime minister. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s Head of European Fixed Income, doubts Johnson will have much of a honeymoon period in the new role as he faces stiff challenges domestically and internationally, with global markets scouring his every move.
If the signs of a recession prove true, the Fed will be in panic mode, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. The economy will weaken, rates will go up and the Fed will have to “do something,” to protect against a “spiral” of higher rates feeding and slower growth.
Our annual summer reading list, with a twist: Our top 3 books on counterintuitive thinking.
When I talk to an advisor who is unhappy with their current broker dealer firm but scared to make a change, I understand why. Here’s how I chose the wrong firm and what I would have done differently. There’s a powerful lesson in it for advisors who are making the same decision.
It has been nearly 20 years since the tech bubble reached its peak. We see an investment pricing behavior similar to the tech boom. Then it was tech versus non-tech. Now, it is high growth versus everything else. As a new dementia takes over, we position differently.
Now that gold has broken through the $1,450 an ounce level, a six-high year high, the next big test is $1,500. And as I’ve said before, it can do this in the blink of an eye under the right conditions.
Despite structural regional challenges, Russ provides insight on several factors that support European equities.
This article is a refresh and an update of an article I originally posted in 2015. However, the principles I am presenting are timeless and worthy of being revisited. Moreover, I have updated the supporting examples to more precisely reflect our current market environment.
During the second quarter, the stock market continued to rebound from last year’s fourth quarter swoon. This reflected the recognition that neither the trade war nor Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy was about to torpedo the long, slow recovery from the 2008 housing debacle.
At the start of 2019, I compiled a list of predictions that so-called financial gurus had made for the upcoming year for a consensus on the year’s “sure things.” The turn of the calendar means it is now time for our second quarter review.
Many observe the impacts of e-commerce growth as decimating commercial retail properties, leaving empty big-box warehouses and strip malls in its wake. While this may be true to a certain extent, it ignores the potential opportunity this new trend is creating in the industrial property sector.
Let’s cut to the conclusion: Does an ESG-related mandate require a performance hit? No.
In early 2007, delinquencies in subprime mortgages began to spike but few took notice. The first real headlines were made in June 2007 when two Bear Stearns hedge funds specializing in the area went down, but few were worried about Bear itself.
By now I’m sure you have at least heard something about the new “Libra” currency that Facebook plans to roll out in 2020. There are those who welcome the new currency and believe there’s a chance it could rival the US dollar in the future.
I will share some general thoughts and observations about things I see, teach and understand about the challenges financial advisors face. Here are five themes to consider.
Sooner or later you will arrive at a plateau, a place where your routine becomes monotonous and your performance might even slowly decline.
Passive investment funds have grown in popularity and offer one key benefit, immediate market beta. However, investors beware! A passive approach to investing in emerging markets equity has several explicit and implicit ramifications. We consider seven here.
When the Fed began a new easing cycle while the economy was expanding, stocks went up 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and 12 months later
Today in my final reply to Ray I sum up my previous letters and describe one possible path for dealing with the deficit and related problems. My idea will be controversial for most people. I am totally open to another, better solution if anybody knows one.
The technology sector has helped fuel one of the longest economic expansions in the history of the United States. It’s worth looking back to the late 1990s to recognize what expectations were created for the tech sector and better understand where we are today.
While the willingness to abandon long held beliefs for political gain has always been a common trait among public figures, the spectacle has recently taken on shocking levels of casual audacity.
What really makes us “old" – our chronological age or our attitude?
Based upon our model research and decades of experience in managing portfolios, we believe that now is a time to assume a bit more defensive posture towards portfolio allocations as the risk of a material correction...
In today’s missive, we would like to discuss the tribulation arising out of political scrutiny and the sectors or companies suffering at the hands of political football.
Trade tensions continue to plague confidence about the trajectory of economic growth. Trade tension-induced cost pressures, disrupted supply chains, capital tied up in excess inventories, and the uncertainty which impedes business investment plans continue to be headwinds.
The opioid crisis in the U.S. is a true tragedy, but drug distributors are not responsible for it – an important point to remember when you read another heartbreaking article.
