Future market performance depends on a question that bullish commentators seem to be glossing over.
We took a close look at the "Big-3" recession precursors and concluded it's too soon to bet on a U.S. recession.
Checklist, anyone? Here’s an unconventional but effective forecasting approach that uses a simple checklist. Instead of treating the business cycle as a single, uniform force, the approach pivots on six key component cycles.
The Fed’s positions on quantitative easing and quantitative tightening are curiously contradictory, at least on the surface, but we can unravel the effects of both with financial flows data. In a single chart, we show that bank and broker-dealer behavior fails to match the Fed's expectations.
We update a spending-power indicator that has an excellent track record predicting the economy.
We describe a spending-power measure that has an excellent track record predicting the economy. As financial markets struggle to regain their nine-year-long buoyancy, our measure bears watching.
Investors might be interested in this month’s alarming debt projections from the CBO, which beg the question: Is America’s near-vertical debt trajectory bullish or bearish for bond holders? Here’s my answer.
Just about everyone keeps a close eye on the economy’s borrowers these days, but there aren’t as many eyes on the lenders. After subdividing debt by the type of lender, we find a recession indicator that demands our attention.
Our bear market dashboards compare current conditions to the conditions that shaped past market cycles. Those comparisons look favorable today, but several risks bear watching.
I continue to track the similarities between President Kennedy’s stock market and President Trump’s market. To help determine whether those similarities will continue, I describe a market indicator called VCURVE, and then I discuss what the indicator might be telling us about the market’s performance in Q1 2018.
Our economic dashboard shows how current conditions compare to the conditions that shaped past business cycles. Although the dashboard looks favorable today, it begs a closer look at financial flows data.