A dollar in secular decline may be the final piece in the puzzle that shows the insanity of our current fiscal and monetary policy. The U.S. bubble economy rests on the foundation of the dollar's status as the reserve currency. If that status is lost, the entire house of cards may just come crashing down.
For fiscal year 2020, the federal budget deficit is expected to hit a massive $1 trillion—the first time in U.S. history that it will have expanded so rapidly in a time of peace and economic stability.
Ray says our current situation is essentially the reciprocal of the 1970s inflationary blow-off. The last historical parallel to what we now face was the 1930s. Both those analogues, while not perfect, carry valuable lessons we should consider.
Not surprisingly, the higher the valuation at the bull market peak, the longer the subsequent period of disappointing returns, in several instances extending more than a decade, though not without intermittent failure-prone bull market rallies to add excitement. This is what I often call ‘going nowhere in an interesting way.’
The balance of the macro data remains positive. A recession starting in 2019 is unlikely, but, for the first time, a recession in 2020 is a rising possibility.
The importance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in investment decisions continues to grow exponentially—to the point where an understanding of ESG now appears critical to carrying out a skillful investment process.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its growth outlook for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, Japan and China.
While the longest economic expansion in US history continues, investor skepticism regarding its staying power seems to be rising. In our view, indicators suggest the economy is in the downturn phase of a mini-cycle—a period of slower economic growth but not outright GDP decline.
As European investors and market practitioners return from their summer vacations and prepare for the final third of 2019, our Head of European Fixed Income David Zahn highlights the issues he thinks will drive markets in the coming months.
There are a number of lessons investors can learn from the sensation that is the Popeyes chicken sandwich. One of those lessons is that people often put a premium on scarcity.
Two decades after inception, the eurozone countries’ arranged marriage-type of union looks shaky at best, and now it is even more challenged by ongoing, global disruptive forces.
My learning goal each year is to read at least 40 business-related non-fiction books. Here is what I’ve read in the past year.
For years, economists have disagreed whether ageing is inflationary or dis-inflationary. Ever since IMF published a controversial paper in 2015, the debate has raged, but I have finally concluded that ageing is most definitely dis-inflationary (and perhaps even outright deflationary), and here is why.
I think the last few weeks marked a turning point in the economic narrative. It’s more than the trade war. A sense of vulnerability is replacing the previous confidence—and with good reason. We are vulnerable, and we’ll be lucky to get through the 2020s without major damage.
Global trade tensions are taking their toll, leaving Europe struggling for solutions.
In some parts of the world, bonds are yielding less than zero. Karen explains how that can happen, what it means for your portfolio and moves to consider.
China's ambitious infrastructure initiative points to the potential of global cooperation.
As China embarks on a transition to a more consumption-based economy, its health is likely to have an increasing impact on the well-being of the global economy.
“Quality” stocks are said to offer a measure of portfolio stability ― a trait that becomes more valuable when markets are volatile and/or the business cycle is growing older. Both are true today. Tony DeSpirito offers his take on investing for quality.
While cash can be comforting, it may come at a cost to an investor’s ending wealth.
It’s okay to encourage and receive online reviews, as long as certain guidelines are met.
The Financial Crisis consumed what was in many ways an overgrown and brittle economic system within the world’s developed countries. The conflagration destroyed many traditional politicians identified with the highly globalized economy and encouraged disruptive, populist leaders to begin reaching for their place in the sun.
This FAST Graphs analyze out loud video will cover a mid-cap dividend growth stock that many may not be familiar with. However, I believe this particular dividend growth stock offers an intriguing opportunity of high current yield, above-average growth yield and enticing capital appreciation potential based on its low valuation.
Annuities have no place being owned by an IRA or, as the SECURE Act would allow, a 401(k) plan.
Unrest in Hong Kong and limitations of monetary policy have no easy solutions.
As the topic of recession remains top of mind for many investors, now is the opportune time to consider preparing your portfolio in the event of a pullback.
To me, fair value, as it relates to common stock investments, is manifest when the current earnings yield provided by the company’s profits compensates me for the risk I am taking by providing both a realistic and acceptable return on my invested capital.
How much longer could America's record-setting economic expansion continue?
Forget the either/or. When it comes to investing your hard-earned money for retirement, wouldn’t you want as many options as possible?
Planning has become table stakes in our industry, but I say that with a note of caution. When a financial plan feels like a box-checking exercise, it can be seen as a commodity. When you position your own planning process to your clients, be intentional.
The performance of U.S. value stocks over the last decade has led many to wonder whether the value premium has been completely eroded. New research from GMO shows that this was due to changes in relative valuations that favored growth over value, but now value stocks are priced attractively.
Stock markets have become more volatile as trade tensions have worsened and weakness in the manufacturing side of the economy has caused increasing concern. Swift resolutions to these issues seem unlikely and a dovish Fed may not be the elixir to what ails the economy. With the likelihood of persistent volatility in the coming months, we recommend investors stay broadly diversified and focused on the long term. From a tactical perspective, we remain neutral to U.S. and global equities; with a bias within the U.S. market toward large cap stocks relative to small caps. Investors should not attempt to trade around short-term moves in the equity markets; but instead remain disciplined, diversified, and use rebalancing as necessary.
More than a year after the start of the U.S.-China trade war, we’re finally starting to see consumer prices increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose to a six-month high of 2.2 percent year-over-year in July.
In our view, the specific market dynamics that influence a company's sales growth prospects have a greater impact on equity returns than the overall direction of the economy.
This is the longest U.S. economic expansion ever. And while expansions don’t die of old age, it’s prudent for investors and central bankers to think now about the potential consequences of the next global recession.
The most closely watched part of the US yield curve inverted this week for this first time since 2007, suggesting that a recession may be around the corner. We’re not convinced that’s true.
The transition from LIBOR to SOFR has been slow. We present some key reasons for the delay in SOFR’s broader integration into markets. Important bottlenecks include lags in the evolution of SOFR-based swaps and derivatives markets and in the development of a term SOFR structure.
Global growth is slowing. Corporate profits are shrinking. Business investment is waning. And the seemingly-perpetual bull market, buoyed by the longest U.S. expansion on record as evidenced by the S&P 500, may be entering its final stages.
Investors who have watched the U.S. stock market over the last decade might be wondering whether the appeal of value stocks has been whittled away by a long run of underperformance.
Before you rush out to search for retiring financial advisers whose practices you can purchase, understand that acquiring another firm will create more problems than it solves.
Current economic conditions do not look recessionary, but risks are rising and if we’re heading into one, it’s possible it already started.
Gold headed for its best week in nearly two months as the value of negative-yielding debt touched a new record of $15 trillion. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2 percent, pushing gold above $1,500 an ounce for the first time since September 2013.
Trade tensions are a symptom rather than a cause of the world’s underlying economic and financial malaise. Moreover, an excessive focus on trade could deflect policymakers’ attention from other measures needed to ensure faster and more inclusive growth in a genuinely stable financial environment.
At the moment, there are roughly 15T dollars of debt “earning” negative interest rates in the global economy, a state not anticipated in modern macroeconomic theory first proposed by Keynes and Samuelson during the 30s and 40s.
The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century. Many investors still fear local markets due to FX volatility, but EM local bonds have performed better overall than US Treasuries and US stocks.
Choosing the wrong broker-dealer is a nightmare beyond reckoning.
A broker-dealer isn’t just somewhere to hang your licenses or clear your trades. And the best deal isn’t necessarily the one that is the most financially lucrative on paper on day one. It’s about finding an ecosystem that allows you to grow your practice to its full potential.
This webinar will be full of concrete examples of broker-dealer transitions that did and did not work out. From these real-life examples, advisors will learn how to judge a broker-dealer firm based upon the following:
Kestra Financial leads the industry in wealth management, service and technology solutions, and practice enrichment. Our independent RIA and broker/dealer services have over 20 years of industry experience and are taking flight to elevate the level of personalized service you need. To learn more about how Kestra Financial can support your business check the box in the registration form to the left.
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CFA®, CPWA®, CIMA®, CIMC®, and RMA® CE approved
Investments & Wealth Institute® accepts this webinar for 1 hour of CE credit towards the CIMA®, CPWA®, CIMC®, and RMA® certifications. If you provide the required information during the webinar registration process and stay for the entire LIVE event we will report your attendance to IWI. If you watch the ON-DEMAND event please email us at [email protected] for the IWI® webinar ID to self-report your attendance.
To understand how impact management can be applied in practice, our Franklin Real Asset Advisors team, in collaboration with consulting firm Tideline, took an example from the real estate sector and considered the specific demands of social infrastructure.
China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the decline is as worrisome as it may seem.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Having worked closely with entrepreneurs in the independent wealth advisory space, it is apparent that their psychology follows a relatively defined path. However, there is a psychological arc that aligns with their decision-making and thought process.
