There They Go Again...Again
I’m in the process of writing another book, going into great depth regarding one of the most important things discussed in my book The Most Important Thing: cycles, their causes, and what to do about them. It will be out next year, but this memo will give you a preview regarding one of the most important cyclical phenomena.
Mid-Year Outlook: Be More Selective in the Second Half
After a strong first half to 2017 for equities, the message for the remainder of the year is to look for returns more carefully in the second half says Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors. The “country factor” will be key: We believe investors can no longer rely on a rising tide of cyclical data to lift all boats.
China and Emerging Asia: A New Dawn for the Capital Markets
Asia’s integration into world financial markets may be accelerating.
Dynamic Asset Allocation for Practitioners Part 1: Universe Selection
In 2012 we published a whitepaper entitled “Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer” in which we built upon the simple, robust momentum framework proposed by Mebane Faber in his 2009 study “Relative Strength Strategies for Investing.”
The first week of earnings did little to change the overall market’s trend. In fact, it may have provided reasons to reinforce it. While the week's reports were mostly beats at the top and bottom lines (just like three months ago), the reception to some of the more cyclical company earnings reports (Banks and Industrials) were very unwelcoming.
“Mother of All Bubbles” Keeps Gold in Focus
Today I want to discuss reports that global debt levels are at all-time highs, and what this means for your investment decisions going forward.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation"
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.8, up from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.99%, down from 5.12% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.6, up from the previous week.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Continues to Climb
The S&P opened near its daily high and oscillated around a 9 point range, closing in the middle just below yesterday's all-time high. The index saw a fractional daily loss of 0.02% and a YTD gain of 10.48%.
The Chinese economy delivered many surprises in the first half of the year, disappointing (yet again) the pundits who predicted a hard landing. Macroeconomic data published over the weekend is consistent with a healthy economy, driven by impressive wage growth and consumer spending, and supported by strong earnings growth.
How the Asian Financial Crisis Reshaped Emerging Markets
Twenty years ago, the world was standing on the brink of the Asian Financial Crisis. Here, Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab looks at how the response of local policymakers in the subsequent two decades has impacted emerging markets in general.
I am not quite sure how I met Leon Tuey, but meet him I did a few years ago, much to my benefit. My guess it was through either a mutual friend or a Canadian reporter that we both speak to.
Revisiting the Traditional Emerging Market Equities Allocation Framework
Bhartia, a portfolio manager on GMO’s Emerging Markets Equities team, and his colleague Mehak Dua, explore the benefits of combining a risk-based approach with valuation in an asset class that has grown considerably more complex over the last three decades.
Looking for Emerging-Market Opportunities? Go Local.
For investors in search of a way to boost income and diversify their bond portfolios, now may be the time to consider what local-currency emerging-market bonds offer.
Fixed Income Outlook
“It is a Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma: but Perhaps There is a Key” - Winston Churchill