China’s Critical Role in Technology and Geopolitics
For some time now I have been concerned about the state of American competitiveness looking out a decade ahead. Innovation has been the lifeblood of our economic success, and nowhere has this been more apparent than in information technology since the advent of the Internet and the Smartphone. China has risen from being a largely agricultural economy when Mao died in 1976 to become the second most important economy in the world today. Still, many thought leaders believe its growth, even at modest rates, is unsustainable and that the country is good at copying the technology of others, but not as strong as an innovator of fundamental technologies on its own.
Are ICOs Replacing IPOs?
My keynote address on Tuesday focused on quant investing in gold mining and the booming initial coin offering (ICO) market. I’m thrilled to share with you that the presentation was voted the best, for which I was awarded an ounce of gold. I want to thank the London Bullion Market Association, its members and conference attendees for this honor.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 0.51% from Thursday, 15% YTD
The S&P 500 opened Friday well above yesterday's close and climbed throughout the day, closing with a daily gain of 0.51% and a weekly gain of 0.86%. Year-to-date, the index is up 15.02%.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up Again
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 146.6, up 1.4 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.17%, up from 3.67% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.3, up from 1.3 the previous week.
Five Reasons Why It’s Not Too Late to Invest in Emerging Markets
In baseball terms, we believe the upward cycle of emerging markets (EM) is in roughly the third inning of a nine-inning game. In other words, we still see plenty of upside ahead and think it remains a good time to buy.
Australian Interest Rates: Like Watching Grass Grow
If the pace of monetary tightening in the U.S. is any sort of leading indicator for policy tightening in the rest of the world, including Australia, then in Australian parlance, it will be “like watching grass grow.”
Quarterly Strategy Update: Dynamic Undercurrents
Since the start of this year, the US Treasury market is signaling a scenario of rising growth expectations and falling inflation expectations, as reflected by the various components that comprise interest rates.
The Metamorphosis of Emerging Markets
The relative performance of emerging markets has been unremarkable over the past decade, however meaningful changes have taken place in the fundamental and financial construct of the asset class that are relevant for asset allocators. Most notably, the composition of the index has seen dramatic shifts in sector, country, and stock constituents...
5 Things to Know About Emerging Markets
Emerging markets debt and equity have many overlapping traits, but also differ in their exposure to countries and risks. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index contains 27 countries, with the five largest accounting for 70% of market value. Three countries in Asia - China, South Korea and Taiwan - comprise more than 50% of the index.
Ten Investor Takeaways From the IMF/World Bank Meetings
Global central bankers, ministers of finance and representatives from the private sector and civic groups gathered in Washington, D.C., last week for the Annual Meetings of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the World Bank Group.
Putting Geopolitical Tensions into Perspective
When world leaders talk, markets react. And with social media becoming mainstream, politicians have a new way of getting their message to the masses.
China’s Congress Convenes
This month, China’s leadership kicks off its 19th Communist Party Congress, a meeting which sets the agenda for China’s political, economic and even social path in years to come. More than 2,000 delegates from China’s ruling elite attend the Congress, which takes place every five years.
North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part I
We begin our study of the historical relationship between North Korea and China, including a review of the Minsaengdan Incident and a broad examination of the Korean War.
"Lower and Longer" Has Legs
For the 18th straight year, Baird Advisors held its Institutional Investors Conference in Kohler, Wisconsin. Attendees listened to legendary Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward’s perspective on the Trump White House in the context of previous administrations he has covered and to global risk expert Ian Bremmer, President and founder of Eurasia Group, who introduced the concept of a geopolitical recession and mapped a new macroeconomic landscape where the institutions that defined the post-war world order are becoming less relevant.
Drying Paint or Boiling Frog?
Last Month in Perspective: The convoy of developed world central banks reducing policy accommodation appeared to gather steam. Global political developments continued to capture headlines. Interest rates moved higher on the hawkish tilt in central bank rhetoric, and equities gained on generally positive economic data.