The Global Markets Channel

The Impossible Math of the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve officially signaled the beginning of its balance sheet run-off. At this point, that’s old news. But, today the Fed released the Z.1 Flow of Funds, which adds to the intrigue of the balance sheet run-off. Why?

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: YoY Lowest in 12 Months

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 143.4, unchanged from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.83%, down from 3.09% last week and its eleventh consecutive week of declines. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.0, also down from the previous week, its lowest since March of 2016.

High Yield Market Update

The U.S. high yield bond market has grown substantially to around $1.3 trillion today. At the same time, the global high yield market has become more geographically diverse. North America’s share of the market has fallen from 87.1% in 2005 to 62.6% in 2016.

Emerging Markets in the Digital Age

My colleagues and I have been actively speaking about the evolution taking place in many emerging markets over the past few decades. We’ve seen dramatic shifts occurring, with the often one-dimensional economic models of the past giving way to new and diverse growth drivers.

Interest Rate Outlook: Long-Term US Rates Could Rise on Global Growth and Stabilizing Inflation

Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on rates around the world.

The Blockchain Could Potentially Be as Disruptive as Amazon Was in the 1990s

With its ability to validate all transactions in an immutable electronic ledger, the blockchain has the potential to be as disruptive as Amazon was in the late 1990s. When the company went public in 1997, there were serious doubts whether people would willingly give up their credit card information just to buy a book. Since then, Amazon stock is up 8,000 percent, and founder Jeff Bezos briefly overtook Bill Gates in July to become the world’s wealthiest person.

S&P 500 Snapshot: At 2500, All-Time High to End Week

The S&P opened Friday near its Thursday close and began to climb around 2pm. The index closed the day over 2500, another all-time high and a 0.18% gain from Thursday. The index is up 11.68% YTD.

Time to Reset Expectations?

Global markets have been relatively calm this summer despite many uncertainties. Geopolitical risks have continued across the globe, and in some areas, looming monetary policy changes also appear likely. A key question for many investors is whether the sleepy summer period of low volatility will give way to a more turbulent autumn.

Losing Religion?

Many investors no longer view the US as the global safe haven to turn to during bouts of volatility. We argue that US and global fundamentals remain strong, however, many global investors seem to be losing religion.

War With North Korea Could Spark New Bear Market

The United States is increasingly being provoked toward a war with North Korea by its seemingly insane young leader Kim Jong-un. Not only has Jong-un acquired nuclear bomb capabilities much faster than US intelligence sources had estimated for years, he has also recently developed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching US soil.

The Emerging-Market Rally Is Far from Over

Afraid you’ve missed the rally in emerging-market (EM) assets? Don’t be. Responsible policies and pragmatic politics have taken hold in many developing countries. That bodes well for growth and suggests the rally has room to run.

Choosy Investors Choose J.M. Smucker and The Dividend Adds Value

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a “Dividend Contender” that has increased its dividend for 20 consecutive years. After being overvalued for most of fiscal year 2017 (fiscal year ends in April) the company has since fallen into attractive valuation territory.

Getting More From Your LDI Portfolio

Our approach to investing in long duration and long credit portfolios has delivered meaningful alpha over most market cycles.

On Travels and Travails

As the focus of my work is emerging markets, I don’t spend a lot of time in the United States anymore, even though I grew up there. But like many people, I took a bit of time off this summer to enjoy a visit with family. We traveled to Mackinac Island in the state of Michigan, situated in Lake Huron.

Income Opportunities in CEFs and Emerging Markets

Closed-end funds and emerging-market debt offer opportunities for income investors. We also look at Vanguard’s most recent announcement about its bond ETF and what to expect from the FOMC this month.