The Big Picture Heading into 2018
Investors are cautioned not to extrapolate 2017’s performance into 2018, and we expect more frequent bouts of volatility. The global bull market is intact, supported by solid global growth and strong corporate earnings. But with the expectations bar now set quite high heading into next year, pullbacks are increasingly possible. Discipline is important looking ahead.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI at Another Record High
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 147.3, up 0.4 from the previous week and a record high. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.87%, down from 4.44% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.9, up from the previous week.
China Clears Way for More Foreign Participation
At this time of the year, smog in Beijing, China, can be overwhelming. Throughout the city this fog/smog prevents the sun from shining through. But, the pollution problems have not clouded financial activity.
What Should Europe’s Bond Investors Be Watching in 2018?
This year may be remembered for its low volatility and the strong performance of nearly all asset classes across almost all geographic markets. But 2018 may follow a different playbook.
Thoughts on GOP Tax Cuts & China's Faltering Economy
I veer from our usual roster of topics this week to bring you an update on China and its prospects for continued hot economic growth, or lack thereof. China is the second largest economy on the planet, behind the US, and many (if not most) Americans believe that it won’t be too long before China overtakes the US as the largest economy in the world.
2018 Outlook: Guard Against Real-World Inflation
The gradual reversal of expansionary monetary policies – at differing paces globally – will require some investors to adjust their approaches. Protecting purchasing power will remain a priority as official inflation understates real-world costs.
Emerging Market Performance Dispersion Set to Rise After Strong 2017
Emerging markets have benefitted from both improving fundamentals and bullish sentiment driving inflows to the asset class. Individual country risks, however, are poised to rise. Be selective.
Gold Looks Like a Bargain Just in Time for Christmas
“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is,” Warren Buffett famously said. “The time to get interested is when no one else is.” The same logic applies to Christmas decorations, gold and mining stocks.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 1.53% from Last Week
The S&P 500 plummeted on open Friday, but began climbing just before noon and continued to rise until closing 0.20% below Thursday. Year-to-date, the index is up 18.02%.
Cash is an Asset Class Again!
In a US Dollar bull market with interest rates at zero, cash is rightfully dismissed as a non-asset class. But, when the US Dollar is in a bear cycle, things change, irrespective of what US interest rates are.
A Megatrend is Underway
Lately, investors have been focused on headlines about China’s twice-a-decade congress reshuffling, looking for signs of leadership changes to come in the world’s second-largest economy. But a different kind of leadership change in China is well underway – and investors should take note.
How Much Runway Is Left for the U.S. Expansion?
The U.S. economic expansion is now the third-longest on record. Does this mean a recession is looming? Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman digs into the data and assesses the risks.
Finding My Roots in Germany, and a Piece of Musical History
While emerging markets have been my area of focus for several decades, I also travel extensively to developed countries, too. It’s quite enlightening to see how once “emerging” countries still cherish their heritage.
Move Over, Tesla! China Holds the Keys to Electric Vehicles
Earlier this month, I shared with you a quote from Arnoud Balhuizen, chief commercial officer of BHP Billiton, the largest mining company in the world. In a September interview with Reuters, Balhuizen called 2017 the “revolution year [for electric vehicles], and copper is the metal of the future.”
Global Economic Perspective: November
The economic backdrop has remained supportive, both in the United States and globally, and should allow the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue raising interest rates at a measured pace, in our view. Jerome Powell’s nomination as Fed chair points to continuity in monetary policy in the near term...