The Global Markets Channel

Beyond the Headlines: Finding Opportunities in Today’s Markets

With markets reacting in part to geopolitical events, it’s hard not to be distracted by news headlines. To help sift through some of the noise, several of our senior investment leaders recently participated in a roundtable discussion of the events shaping the global markets today, the implications for investors and where they see potential opportunities ahead.

If Trump Gets Taxes and Infrastructure, Who Pays, and What Does it Mean for Stocks?

With the dissolution of health care legislation barely final, murmurers out of Washington seem to suggest tax reform/cuts and infrastructure may be tackled in tandem in a way that attracts bipartisan support.

China in 2017: A Year of Uncertainty

The paper discusses a wide range of issues facing China’s economy in 2017, from the selection of Xi Jinping’s successor, to relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, to the outlook for China’s One Belt One Road initiatives in Asian infrastructure development. China’s currency volatility should continue this year, but geopolitical risks to its economy may be overstated.

Strategist: Keep Calm, Tax Reform Is On Its Way

Regardless of its failure to be repealed, tax reform is on its way. Just today, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reassured Americans that we could still expect “comprehensive” tax reform by August. It’s also worth recalling that, even though he failed to reform health care during his eight years in office, President Bill Clinton still managed to tackle tax reform with the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993.

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down from Last Week

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.6, down 0.8 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 10.96%, down from 11.76% the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 9.0, also down from the previous week.

Why Things Aren’t What They Used to Be in Emerging Markets

The prospect of stabilizing commodity prices and improving corporate earnings has helped rebuild investor interest in emerging markets over the past year. But returning investors may find the constituents of today’s emerging markets are very different from those of the past.

Characteristics of Capital Preservation: A Look at the US Energy Sector

In a market experiencing the largest pullback since the election, investors are rightly looking for places to hide. At present, according to our work, the US energy sector is the only truly oversold sector.

S&P 500 Snapshot: Biggest Loss in Five Months

Today's S&P 500 opened at its daily high and proceeded to tumble throughout the day, ending the selloff with a 1.24% loss, its largest since October.

The Biggest Trends in Family Wealth

Family wealth has emerged as the financial-industry topic of this decade, akin to what estate planning was in the ‘70s, investment planning in the ‘80s, financial planning in the ‘90s, and wealth management in the ‘00s. Today family wealth advisors serve 35,000 households that all together account for more than $5 trillion in assets.

Bogged Down…

I know that I am not the only one feeling it. You can see the increasing risk in the markets and uglier action on the tape. Credit is seeing selling even as recession fears are distant. Bank stocks are rolling over even with the Fed raising interest rates.

Risk: What Really Matters

Recent months have been unusually eventful, characterized by a swing in the global political landscape, U.S. dollar strength, geopolitical flash points, demonetization in India and military coups in Turkey (among many others), all feeding into general market nervousness and a significant rise in volatility. This was certainly the case in emerging markets.

Middle-Class Wage Stagnation Is a First-World Problem – The World is Getting Richer

A common lament during the presidential campaign was over middle-class income stagnation and the wealth of the top 1%. But are most people getting poorer while the rich get richer? In a sparkling – and delightfully short – new contribution to the econo-optimist genre, Johan Norberg, author of Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future, emphatically answers “no.”

America’s New Emphasis on Fiscal Policy

Investor exuberance is being supported by proposed fiscal policy such as lower corporate taxes, deregulation and historically large budget cuts to help finance the rebuilding of the nation’s infrastructure and military.

China: Making solid progress on its Five-Year Plan

As the National People’s Congress convenes, we highlight three government priorities to watch.

How Do Alternative Investments Perform in a Rising Interest Rate Environment?

The proliferation of liquid alternative mutual funds happened in response to the 2008-2009 recession, which was followed by an extended period of unusually low interest rates.