We've always been skeptical that bond yields carry deep meaning about the future. Low Treasury bond yields in recent years were said to be a signal of slower growth, or possibly a recession, ahead. And the bond world said stocks were over-valued.

Small caps have materially outperformed large caps in 2018, with the S&P SmallCap 600 Index outpacing the S&P 500 Index 7.80% to 2.58% between Dec. 29, 2017, and May 25, 2018. Below, I highlight the drivers of small-cap returns this year, and why I believe the trend could continue.

We have used this quip from the book Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation by Fred C. Kelly many times in our missives over the past nearly five decades because the wisdom of its message is timeless. We recalled it last week in many of our meetings in New York City when we heard certain individual investors, as well as portfolio managers (PMs), say “I should have!”

Recent posts from the diversified fixed income team have discussed how bond investors should be prepared to navigate a market that may look very different from what they've grown used to. In other words, it might be time to reassess the old bond-investing playbook.

Much has been written about residential mortgage modifications, yet hardly anything has been said about the problem of re-defaults on modified mortgages. In large part, this is due to the paucity of accurate data about borrowers re-defaulting. It is time to clearly lay out how extensive this problem really is, what it means for mortgage markets and the dangers it poses for investors.

Of the two certainties we face – death and taxes – only taxes can be purposefully delayed or avoided altogether. Here are some ways to do that with highly appreciated securities.

My first book, The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need, was first published 20 years ago, in May 1998. With its 20th anniversary in mind, let’s see how my recommendations worked out for investors who followed them.

The U.S. inflation story made further inroads this month, with year-over-year price growth for consumers and producers alike hitting multiyear highs. U.S. consumer prices expanded at their strongest pace in more than six years, climbing to an annual change of 2.8 percent in May. Prices for final demand goods, meanwhile, grew 3.1 percent, their strongest annual surge since December 2011.

The pension crisis alone has catastrophic potential damage, let alone all the other debt problems we’re discussing in this series. You are sadly mistaken if you think it will end in anything other than a train wreck. The only questions are how serious the damage will be, and who will pick up the bill.

The S&P 500 spent the majority of the week seesawing until Friday when it opened lower than Thursday and dropped midday. The index was down 0.11% from Thursday and is up a measly basis point from last Friday. The index is up 3.10% YTD and is 3.25% below its record close.

Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended Friday at 2.93% and the 30-year bond closed at 3.05%. The 2-10 yield spread is now at 0.38%.

Fears of new threats to emerging markets have cooled stock returns after two years of hot performance. But the concerns may be overstated. The long-term risk profile of emerging markets is continuing to improve.

To put Procter & Gamble’s current valuation into perspective, this blue-chip can be purchased today with a 3.7% current dividend yield which is hovering around the highest it has been over the past two decades. Furthermore, Procter & Gamble appears attractively valued over virtually every rational valuation metric that prudent value investors might consider.

This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 149.3, up 0.08 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.40%, up from 3.22% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.7, up from the previous week.

Investors and their advisors must be alert to managing both pre-tax and after-tax alpha in order for investors to realize the highest possible return from their taxable portfolios. Increasingly, the opportunities to accomplish both goals are within reach of investors through, for example, tax-advantaged smart beta strategies and tax-efficient vehicles such as ETFs.

The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for June came in at 99.3, up 1.3 from the May Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 98.5.

Every quarter we ask bond and currency managers to consider valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months. Today, we’ve put the spotlight on U.S. rates and inflation expectations, credit markets and casualties from rising U.S. interest rates.

The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite.

In predictable fashion, the Fed increased borrowing costs again today. How long could the central bank stick to its quarterly rate-hiking rhythm?

Russ discusses why tech stocks are not only not in a bubble, but reasonably valued.

Based on the logical, risk-based explanations for the value premium, and the lack of evidence pointing to shrinking valuation spreads, my conclusion is that the most recent 10 years of performance is likely just another of those occasionally occurring but fairly long periods in which the value premium is negative.

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.8% month-over-month to one decimal and was above the Investing.com consensus of 0.4%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.80% MoM (to two decimals). Revisions were made to reflect new seasonal factors, samples, and the results of a 2016 annual survey.

The federal deficit and the cost to service that debt are rising at the same time. This historical anomaly is putting the U.S. on a “suicide mission,” according to Jeffrey Gundlach.

As the Trump administration continues to threaten tariffs targeting a variety of imported goods, from electronics to washing machines to automobiles, many market commentators have suggested the US-led trade skirmishes could turn into a trade war.

Matthews Asia Portfolio Manager Michael Oh says South Korea’s economy may benefit from closer ties to North Korea, but costs and risks remain.

Risk to the euro resurfaces in an unlikely governing coalition and challenging economic agenda, but Italy’s top stocks don’t face the same perils as its government bonds.

Discover the methodology behind Vanguard's one-of-a-kind liquidity factor ETF.

The liquidity factor is a hidden gem waiting to be mined. Target its precious premium.

We believe the math of common stock investing is pretty simple. When you buy a stock without leverage, you can only lose your original investment. Your gains can be unlimited over the longest term (long duration). Most of the benefit (90%) of diversification is reached by owning a twelve-to-eighteen stock portfolio...

This week financial market participants were delivered a cogent explanation for the weakness in EM stocks, bonds and currencies by India’s central bank governor, Mr. Urjit Patel.