Reflecting on the months of travel as we wing our way back to Tampa at 38,000 feet, one of the more interesting encounters in those travels was spending time with Steve Forbes (Forbes Magazine). Although Steve is a staunch Republican, he suggested that Republicans worship at the altar of the CBO (Congressional Budget Office). 

Should tighter monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic worry bond investors? We don’t think so. Bonds have historically delivered positive returns when interest rates rise—particularly when they rise gradually.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to begin the process of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. Here’s what it may mean for investors.

We have a light calendar for economic data. The week’s focus will be the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday. Given the resilience of the market rally in the face of various natural and human threats, the punditry will turn to a favored topic. Expect people to be asking: Will the Fed be the catalyst for a market correction?

The “Big Lie” is that you can “beat an index” over an extended period of time. You can’t, ever. Let me explain.

All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through September 18. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 28.0%, followed by India's BSE SENSEX at 21.77%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 11.84%.

No one expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the meeting this week. A rate change of any kind, either up or down, would be a complete stunner. Instead, the big news on monetary policy this week is very likely to be the Federal Reserve announcing it will begin gradually trimming its balance sheet at the start of October.

In her post-FOMC press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is expected to provide a concise evaluation of the current economic situation. That includes a discussion about the recent trend in low inflation and the economic impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. She is not expected to signal what the Fed will do with short-term interest rates in the months ahead.

Value stocks have underperformed most other styles of investing, as well as the broad market, by a wide margin since the beginning of 2015. We see several reasons why, which point to the catalysts for a potential recovery; we do not think Value is past its prime.

With the top two positions at the Federal Reserve soon to be open, Russ discusses how the easy money era goes back a long way.

This is the first of a four-part empirical research study into the fallacy of the “random walk” view on investment reward and risk.

Last week, investors were lamenting the lack of inflation. This week, they’re fixated on its rise. On Thursday, data showed consumer prices climbed 0.4% in August from a month earlier and 1.9% from a year earlier, a sign that inflation is once again on the upswing after months of soft readings.

This is part one of a comprehensive primer on cryptocurrencies and blockchains.

Stock market performance has not been driven by the improving health of the global economy. Just as negative interest rates are not a positive for the continued health of the economy, current stock market performance does not augur rosy future returns for stocks. In fact, the opposite is true.

At the October 2002 market low, the S&P 500 stood -49.2% below its March 2000 peak (-48.0% including dividend income), with the Nasdaq 100 having lost more than -82.8% from its high, on the basis of both price and total return. The loss wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bills, all the way back to May 1996.

The major US indices all recorded new all-time highs (ATH) this week. The very broad NYSE, covering 2800 stocks, also made a new ATH, suggesting the rally is supported by adequate breadth. Longer-term studies and the fundamental macro data continue to indicate that further upside into year-end is odds-on. On a short-term basis, there are several reasons to be on alert for weakness over the next week or two. An important FOMC meeting is on deck for Wednesday.

With its ability to validate all transactions in an immutable electronic ledger, the blockchain has the potential to be as disruptive as Amazon was in the late 1990s. When the company went public in 1997, there were serious doubts whether people would willingly give up their credit card information just to buy a book. Since then, Amazon stock is up 8,000 percent, and founder Jeff Bezos briefly overtook Bill Gates in July to become the world’s wealthiest person.

September has historically been a tough time for stocks and there are multiple potential pitfalls to look out for this year as well. But economic and earnings growth—both domestic and global—continues to look healthy and we expect the bull market to continue. Remain globally diversified, but also disciplined around target asset allocations; and use any volatility for rebalancing purposes.

Elected officials at all levels have promised workers they will receive pension benefits without taking the hard steps necessary to deliver on those promises. This situation will end badly and hurt many people. Unfortunately, massive snafus like this rarely hurt the politicians who made those overly optimistic promises, often years ago.

The S&P opened Friday near its Thursday close and began to climb around 2pm. The index closed the day over 2500, another all-time high and a 0.18% gain from Thursday. The index is up 11.68% YTD.

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August released this morning showed a decrease over the revised July figures. Headline sales came in at -0.2% month-over-month to one decimal. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.1%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.2% MoM. Figures were revised going back to July 2016.

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 143.3, up 1.5 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.08%, down from 3.65% last week and its tenth consecutive week of declines. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.3, also down from the previous week, its lowest since March of 2016.

The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for September came in at 95.3, down from the August Final reading of 96.8. Investing.com had forecast 95.1.

Robo advice is the newest disruptor in the financial industry and many advisors are not sure how to interpret this new investment advice solution. Some are writing it off as a solution for lower asset customers, some are concerned about the competitive threat, while others are embracing the technology for use in their own business.

Over my lifetime I have invested in many different things. In the process of doing that, I have learned that there are really only two types of investors. As an investor, you are either active or passive. Being active implies directly managing or being in control of your investment.

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

China is dropping its focus on “dirty” industrial growth, while making a massive shift toward renewable energy and a less resource-intensive path to economic success. This reorientation could open up substantial opportunities for equity investors.

So, I am sitting here in downtown Saint Petersburg, Florida at 7:30 a.m. Sunday morning awaiting the “great flood.” It was just a few days ago the computer models had hurricane Irma heading up the east coast of Florida, but Irma changed her mind.

The investing industry is constantly devising new acronyms and buzzwords. Sometimes these can be dangerous. The rise of the FANG stocks highlights how clusters of stocks may create investing hazards that standard risk models struggle to detect.

For the first time since we’ve been keeping track, two separate Category 4 hurricanes struck the mainland U.S. in the same year. It should come as no surprise, then, that the combined recovery cost of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma is expected to set a new all-time high for natural disasters.