The Capital Growth Channel

Yawn…

Expectations for U.S. growth continue to slow as distractions in Washington D.C. take away from the aggressive legislative agenda.

Equity Growth Stars: Bargains in Disguise

Investors are wary about US stock multiples. But elevated valuations of high-growth stocks may be deceiving. Growth overachievers that can deliver persistent fundamental strength often make a mockery of their short-term valuations in hindsight.

Jeremy Siegel versus Robert Shiller on Equity Valuations

Should you reduce allocations to U.S. equities given the conventional wisdom that prices are “rich” and “due for a correction”? Jeremy Siegel says no; investors should expect 5% real returns from stocks over the long term. But Robert Shiller thinks that number should be much lower.

Our Five Year Forecast for the S&P 500

The vast majority of businesses manage their operations according to a plan. That plan may be as simple as an entrepreneur writing down a few goals on a napkin, or as complex as a massive set of instructions covering the day to day, month to month, year by year, or decade by decade actions required to maximize profits.

Gimme Three Steps … and a Stumble?

"Three steps and a stumble" was first illustrated by Edson Gould, the legendary market technician from the 1930s through the 1970s. Ultimately the baton was passed from Gould to another legendary market analyst (and my mentor/boss for my first 13 years in this business), Marty Zweig, who incorporated the "rule" into his monetary policy indicator.

7 Come 11

On a craps table, if a 7 or 11 rolls on the first throw of the dice, you are an automatic winner if you are betting the “pass line.” But, if you roll a 2, 3, or 12 on the first roll, you lose.

Brazilian Markets Tumble as Political Turmoil Returns

Brazil’s stocks and currency took a beating as President Temer was implicated in a corruption scandal, endangering the government’s reform agenda and fragile economic recovery.

What does the election of Emmanuel Macron mean for Europe?

Former Minister for the Economy, Emmanuel Macron, defeated the populist Euro-skeptic candidate Marine Le Pen. He did this by taking more than 60% of the French Presidential runoff vote.

And if you try sometimes…

Following the election, stock market participants gained optimism on the view that the new administration would push through a reduction in regulations, sharply boost infrastructure spending, and achieve broad tax reform.

The Sources, Benefits and Risks of Leverage

When evaluating investment strategies it’s critical to understand the nature of the leverage being used.

Don’t Wait for Rough Markets to Take a Look at Alternatives

Volatility is remarkably low today, but it’s not likely to stay that way. Alternatives have the potential to provide diversification and reduce risk when markets get stormy again. But what’s the best way to design an alternatives allocation?

On My Radar: Near Term Looks Good, Long Term Looks Scary

This is one of the more important pieces I’m sharing with you. It’s a candid look at where we are in the economic cycle and what that likely means for the global markets.

Sustainable Income

Advisor Rand Spero of Street Smart Financial in Lexington, Mass., shares his views on the need for sustainable income, particularly among older investors.

Being Wrong in an Interesting Way

My friend Mark Hulbert once had a philosophy professor at Oxford, who distinguished two ways of being wrong: “You can be just plain wrong, or you can be wrong in an interesting way.” In the latter case, Mark explained, correcting the wrong reveals a lot about the underlying truth.

The Best Fund Managers – As Voted by their Peers

Today’s indexing mania is driving the marketing people at the best active fund complexes completely crazy, but the top portfolio managers – that is, the people who really, truly enjoy investing – are seeing a lot of new opportunities.