Capital Growth

Leverage, ratings arbitrage, liquidity transformation, and a growing willingness to embrace complexity and illiquidity are becoming more visible across parts of the financial system.

The market encountered its stiffest test in months last week as rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and renewed scrutiny of AI capital spending combined to pressure many of the year’s biggest winners. Easing tensions over the weekend have buoyed stocks. If the Strait of Hormuz was opened, I believe the market would be 5% to 10% higher.

As the Q2 earnings season kicks into high gear, market sentiment around the AI trade is undergoing a critical sanity check. Alphabet’s second quarter results last week served as a barometer for how Wall Street is weighing artificial intelligence investments against current profitability.

With the US-Iran conflict nearing the five-month mark, equity markets have mostly shrugged off the latest escalation. On one hand, that’s understandable – a healthy economy and record corporate profits continue to support the market’s fundamentals. But a note of caution is warranted.

Without the support of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it’s been a lethargic year in terms of performance by municipal bonds and the related ETFs, but that doesn’t mean advisors and fixed income investors should ignore this bond segment.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

On a recent episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey welcomed veteran market strategist Gregory T. Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report, for a wide-ranging discussion on precious metals, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, artificial intelligence, and global macroeconomic trends.

For many years, globalization felt like a one-way street. Supply chains stretched effortlessly across continents. Companies built “just-in-time” systems that assumed goods, data, and capital would flow smoothly around the world. Investors could buy a global index fund and feel reasonably confident that they were capturing the benefits of ever-closer integration.

Discover Aberdeen’s closed-end funds (CEFs) for high yields, illiquid assets, long-term investments, and resilient income for 2026.

US earnings are set to grow briskly in 2026, but much of the expected gains are being driven by expanding profit margins that may be hard to sustain. Equity investors should ask whether portfolios are exposed to businesses with durable demand and profitable reinvestment—or merely a favorable margin cycle.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that tariff tensions between the United States and the rest of the world won’t be going away any time soon. Last Friday, the U.S. imposed a series of tariffs on 60 different trading partners, including China, Canada, and the European Union.

Brent crude crossed above $100 a barrel this week, all due to a 20-mile-wide stretch of water some 6,500 miles away from the U.S. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—the Persian Gulf bottleneck that carried roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil before the fighting started—has fallen to virtually zero.

As markets place a greater premium on shareholder-friendly capital allocation, companies that consistently combine buybacks with dividends may be better positioned to outperform.

The second-quarter earnings season is in full swing. So far, the results are landing in line or better than the upwardly revised Wall Street estimates. That’s the opposite of how this usually works. Analysts normally trim their forecasts as a year wears on. In 2026, they’ve done the opposite.

Oil has staged an impressive rebound this month as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has re-escalated. The memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 created a 60-day window for negotiations, but the diplomatic opening lasted only a few weeks. Both sides subsequently accused the other of violating the peace agreement, and military operations have resumed.

In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, revisits one of investing’s most persistent concerns: how should investors prepare for the next recession or bear market? Updating an article and video he originally published in 2021, Chuck explains why he believes investors should prepare for market downturns, but not fear them.

Health care stocks came alive in the second quarter, benefiting from relatively low valuations and a late rotation away from some high-flying tech names. The sector returned 9.5% for the period, good enough to tie for fourth among the S&P 500® Index's 11 sectors.

Pensions are as healthy as they’ve been for a long while. Maintaining tried and true investment strategies has led the way to current funding levels and may support pension stability for years to come.

The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.

The ETF market saw a push in capital away from the concentrated U.S. tech sector to defensive broad market exposure, short duration bonds, and commodities. The shift in flows is amplified by the semiconductor market pullback, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Emerging markets are quietly having their best decade in a generation, and most global investors still don’t own enough. The case for investing in emerging markets today is not the tired characterisation of a high growth, low valuation opportunity.

It may seem premature to focus on the November US midterm elections. Polls will shift, economic data will evolve and unexpected events will reshape the political landscape in the months ahead.

Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.

Election season often follows a familiar script. Investors debate congressional control, speculate on policy outcomes and search for clues about what markets might do next.

The U.S. energy sector has outperformed in 2026, driven primarily by geopolitical-related supply fears, elevated oil prices, and rising demand from the AI infrastructure buildout. While broad energy funds have also surged, investors can potentially enhance exposure by targeting specific segments of the energy market.

In June, market news continued to be dominated by the Middle East conflict as frequent flare-ups in hostilities gave way to repeated ceasefire efforts and the signing of a high-level memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.

Semiconductor exchange-traded funds have gained more than 25% this year. Intel Corporation’s (INTC) second-quarter earnings report after today’s close could test whether that rally continues.

Research Affiliates and PIMCO leadership analyze key 2026 midyear market shifts, warning of elevated U.S. and AI equity valuations.

Those who are familiar with Vanguard’s ETF lineup are likely well-acquainted with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). After all, this fund — which provides low-cost exposure to the S&P 500 — is currently the largest fund in terms of AUM.

Equity markets have shown resilience amid persistent headwinds, supported by index evolution and earnings strength

Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.

It's difficult to call any stretch a calm, quiet summer week, but this one would seemingly fit the bill. Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM) are the standouts, along with a slew of cyclicals reporting Q2 results.​

Resilient earnings, improving industrial activity and the AI investment cycle should continue to support equities, according to Putnam Equity’s Shep Perkins. But the same forces driving the market higher are also making companies harder to value.

Kevin Warsh’s early overhaul of Federal Reserve communication and policymaking suggests investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer rate environment with greater uncertainty around policy signals.

The World Cup games that went into extra time were reminders of just how tough it can be for players to keep up their momentum over the long haul.

Small-cap and mid-cap stocks are outrunning large caps in 2026, and one portfolio manager says the shift has room to run.

Investors continue to benefit from two powerful tailwinds: strong stock-market performance and bond yields that remain attractive compared with much of the post-financial-crisis period. Higher yields have improved the income generated by fixed income portfolios and given investors more flexibility to balance income, liquidity, and interest rate risk.

Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since becoming Fed Chair in May, Kevin Warsh delivered the chair's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.

AI continues to evolve. Early offerings in the 2010s around machine learning, natural language processing, and predictive analytics helped ignite the Big Data era and allow for the ingestion and processing of both structured and unstructured data at previously unimaginable speeds and volumes.

In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.

Last week’s dominant story was the sharp unwinding of the momentum trade that has carried the market for months. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined 10 per cent over the week and is down 21 per cent from June’s peak. Bear markets are defined as drawdowns of 20 per cent or more.

The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.

Lock, stock and barrel, a British phrase, originally referred to the three essential components of a firearm. Over time, it evolved into shorthand for the whole package. When tensions flare in the Middle East, the global economy often feels the consequences lock, stock and barrel.

A major milestone for the story of the stock market this year looms this evening. Alphabet (GOOGL) will report its earnings today after the bell. Reports suggest the firm will have big, positive news to share, so investors may have questions.

The first half of 2026 was shaped by market-moving headlines. The conflict in the Middle East was the most significant story, triggering a short-term market sell-off.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

The equity bull market is expected to continue through the second half of 2026, supported by resilient U.S. growth, AI investment and solid earnings.

For a Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman committed to reducing noise coming from the institution and/or to changing how the Fed communicates, his first attempt to do so was not very promising. Just after Chair Warsh’s first press conference, we argued that inflation was not a choice, as he suggested during the press conference.