JOLTS (job opening data) had a massive surprise, three standard deviations below consensus estimates, the driving job openings to unemployed workers ratio back to pre-pandemic levels.
Looking into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that returns will be stronger, but also expect volatility to remain elevated.
As we move into the second half of 2024, let’s take a look at a familiar market dynamic that’s often misunderstood in commodity investing: Current inventory levels may be much tighter than futures curves are signaling.
Readers of the IMF’s latest annual review of the US economy will be startled to learn that, in the Fund’s estimation, US government debt is on a sustainable path. That assessment makes sense – but it is only as good as the assumptions that underpin it.
European disinflation allowed for a first cut, but the pace from here will be gradual.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) measures the price paid for goods and services by consumers. It reflects changes in consumer behavior and captures inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses. Prices for both goods and services are measured.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is one of the world’s most important security portfolios. Yet, its ongoing importance for markets and financial conditions is often underappreciated.
Bond traders who have come to terms with the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates through 2024 are looking toward this week’s Federal Reserve meeting for clues on how to game out 2025 and beyond.
American businesses and consumers started the year thinking interest rates would finally come down, making big plans to buy equipment or a house. Now all of that is on hold, slowing large swaths of the economy for the foreseeable future.
T. Rowe Price research leader Jay Nogueira shares thoughts on his own 2024 outlook as well as the firm's research approach.
Over the past few years, even as they have been gritting their teeth and complaining about higher prices, consumers have been fueling US economic growth. Now their pandemic savings are gone and the labor market is cooling off, raising the question: How much will the economy slow down?
Passive quantitative tightening could be the Bank of Japan’s next step toward normalization. Here’s why.
It is essential for financial professionals to include a variety of sources of guaranteed income to give clients the freedom to worry less, gain confidence about the future and enjoy life more.
With a Presidential election less than five months away, expect to hear a great deal of discussion about inequality: the gap between the rich, the poor, and the middle class.
While the European Central Bank cut policy rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% on its deposit facility, the trajectory beyond June remains unclear.
There was a significant reaction in the bond market to the latest job growth figures, which exceeded expectations. The positive surprise led to a sharp 10 basis point rise in long bond yields. Interestingly, equity markets remained resilient in the face of this increase, suggesting a collective market relief that we are not heading toward a slowdown or recession.
While early earnings guidance for Q2 is more a mixed bag, and not all months will look like this, May was a great month for equity investors. The adage, “Sell in May and go away” hasn’t seemed to work out so well over the last few decades.
The next inflation wave will challenge the economy and the Fed. It will not be transitory. A pivot back toward a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) will intensify the problem.
Whether it’s another move up or a dive down, traders are bracing for added volatility wrought by Wednesday’s dual macroeconomic catalysts: a report on consumer prices in the morning and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision in the afternoon.
Lately the housing market has faced a different conundrum at every turn. This year’s puzzle is the disconnect between an aggressive rise in the number of existing homes for sale and still sluggish transactions.
In 2022, we discussed the market’s deviations from long-term growth trends. That discussion centered on Jeremy Grantham’s commentary about market bubbles.
I’m writing you from Cape Town, South Africa, where I’ve been warmly welcomed and reminded how much I enjoy international travel (well, except for jet lag!). Our world has so many wonders most people never get to experience. Of course, “there’s no place like home,” but seeing other places makes me happy, too.
We think today’s market landscape calls for a different mix in multi-asset income strategies.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the YTD strength of energy stocks and why it could continue.
Being an equity growth investor has been a rewarding experience in the past year. Watching growth run-up has made for exciting charts.
The US government moved closer to imposing new tariffs on solar cells and panels from Southeast Asia after an agency’s initial determination that American manufacturers are being harmed by cheap imports from the region.
The labor market data is full of conflicting signals, but the big picture is that the US economy is in pretty good shape. That’s worth celebrating, irrespective of what the “good news is bad news for interest rates” crowd tells you.
For investors looking to position defensively within equities but avoid equity growth FOMO, look to the VictoryShares free cash flow ETFs.
While governments responsibly issue debt to fund public investment and dampen the business cycle, the US federal government has borrowed at an increasingly prolificate pace over recent decades.
After a weak April, markets bounced back in May, with the S&P 500 staging a breathtaking rally in the final few hours of trading on Friday, May 31.
Historically, the level of U.S. debt has had no correlation with the performance of the stock or bond markets.
Why is there so much angst among investors? The mixed economic signals may have a lot to do with it.
European value stocks offer a compelling case for short- and long-term investment opportunities, supported by strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and favorable market conditions.
Take a look at the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). That fund is higher by 24.55% for the 90 days ending June 3.
Treasury bonds are rallying, which opens the pathway for investment opportunities in three Vanguard exchange-traded funds.
US labor costs increased in the first quarter by less than previously reported, reflecting downward revisions to economic output and hours worked and consistent with other signs of moderating activity.
Summer hiring promises more than just monetary rewards for teens.
A defining feature of the post-COVID investment regime has been the persistence of elevated market uncertainty and volatility. The below visual highlights how this has led to a wider range of market performance outcomes, focusing in on the vast difference between the last two calendar years.
Here we are through the first five months of 2024, and you could say the more things change, the more they stay the same. What exactly do we mean, you might ask?
Positive corporate earnings and greater participation from sectors other than technology carried stocks forward.
The global economy continues to recover from pandemic aftershocks, including trade dislocations, outsize monetary and fiscal interventions, a prolonged inflation surge, and bouts of severe financial market volatility. At PIMCO’s 2024 Secular Forum, we explored how the aftereffects of those disruptions are producing some unexpectedly positive developments while introducing longer-term risks.
This year's venture to Asia was informative and delicious.
Jacoby looks at current macroeconomic dynamics through the lens of the movie, “A Bronx Tale,” Robert Di Nero’s directorial debut.
As the global economy builds on its recovery this year, markets may see increased volatility due to divergent central bank policies, geopolitics and election outcomes.
We connect the dots between the micro data points (what we learned during 1Q earnings season) and what we expect the forthcoming macro data will reveal about the state of the economy.
In an ever-evolving healthcare landscape, Medicare’s complexities present both a challenge and an opportunity for financial advisors. As clients approach retirement or face health-related decisions, they often turn to their trusted advisors for guidance on navigating the Medicare maze.
A global bond rally continued, sparked by signs the world’s biggest economy is cooling, ahead of the crucial next read on the state of the US labor market.
One of our main contentions in recent months is that the Federal Reserve, by switching from a scarce reserve model to an abundant reserve model, has completely taken over the short-term interest rates marketplace.
The story that captured all media attention last week was Donald Trump’s guilty verdict. But the Trump conviction had no effect on the markets or predicted probabilities in betting markets for him becoming president.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Equity Manager Research Analyst Michelle Batjargal discussed the results of first-quarter earnings season around the globe.
