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On My Radar: Morningstar ETF Conference – Best Ideas, Part II
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 9/26/16
Last week, I shared some of my notes from the recent Morningstar ETF Conference. I received a number of positive responses. It really helps me to go back through my notes, reflect on what I wrote and summarize it in On My Radar.

'Trifecta’ Opportunity
by Investius News, 9/26/16
Portfolio manager Peter Vanderlee of ClearBridge Investments says investors may find a “trifecta” investment opportunity in some equity-based closed-end funds.

Structural Growth and Dope Dealers on Speed-Dial
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds, 9/25/16
Ironically, investors have been slow to recognize the implications of declining structural growth precisely because of the opium-like qualities of the Federal Reserve policies that are responsible for it.

Perspective from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group
by Team of Franklin Templeton Investments, 9/24/16
Though data turned somewhat softer in recent weeks, we would agree with the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) broadly positive assessment of the US economy at its September meeting, where the Fed remained on hold but a minority of policymakers called for an immediate rise in interest rates. The economy’s fundamentals appear little changed to us, with forecasts for growth to improve in the second half of the year still looking on track, underpinned by the resilience of measures relating to consumers. However, measures to tackle structural headwinds such as stagnant productivity are likely to be required to raise the trend growth rate over the longer term.

Stock Valuations Are Elevated, but Are Current Prices Unprecedented?
by Nick Kalivas of Invesco, 9/23/16
In recent months, questions about equity market valuations have flooded my desk. The rising price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 Index and the run-up in equity prices seem to have shaken investor confidence in future returns. With this in mind, it is worth considering equity valuations from a historical perspective.

Bye Bye Miss American Pie
by David Robertson of Arete Asset Management, 9/23/16
Don Mclean’s song, Bye Bye Miss American Pie, regaled the happier times of a bygone era of music. Investors should also recognize that times have changed and adapt their approaches accordingly.

Groupthink in the Death Zone
by Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management, 9/22/16
The problem with the narrowness of the broad indexes is that investors have been willing to pay nose-bleed multiples on certain stocks today. This risk in equities reaches a certain level that we feel is comparable to the risk of climbing Everest above the 8,000-meter altitude. This height is referred to as the “Death Zone.”

On My Radar: Best Ideas
by Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group, 9/20/16
Last week, I promised I’d share some of my Morningstar conference notes. So let’s start there today. I hope that you find my notes helpful. I believe we investors should always be putting together a shopping list of best ideas so that we are in a position to act when the getting is good.

Author Q&A: Baruch Lev on the End of Accounting
by Team of GaveKal Capital, 9/20/16
“It quickly became clear to me that financial reports were not only completely useless, but they were actually misleading.” – Baruch Lev, NYU Professor of Accounting

Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for the Bond Correction?
by Jeff Miller of NewArc Investments, Inc., 9/20/16
The calendar has very little important data. The highlight is the FOMC announcement and press conference on Wednesday. Even though the Fed is not expected to change course, bonds have gotten much weaker, sending the ten-year note yield higher.

Last Week’s Highlights on APViewpoint
by Marianne Brunet, 9/19/16
The top conversations on APViewpoint last week were started by Scott MacKillop, Abdur Nimeri and Michael Edesess. They generated thoughtful discussion with wide ranging opinions on: the limits to our investment knowledge; the next generation of ESG investing; and whether Wall Street “rips off” your clients.

Why Training by Itself Does Not Change Behaviors
by Beverly Flaxington, 9/19/16
We are on our fourth round of training vendors to teach us how to be more effective at working with our clients. Nothing has worked. I want to expand my capabilities, but how do I start doing things differently?

A Game-Theoretic Framework for Managing Macro Risk
by Robert Huebscher, 9/19/16
The William Blair Macro Allocation Fund (WMCNX) seeks to capitalize on global opportunities through active management across asset classes, geographies, currencies and risk themes. Since inception, the fund has had an annual return of 5.41%, which is 115 basis points ahead of its benchmark. Its management team uses game theory to understand and assess geopolitical risks and how they will impact portfolio performance.

Ten Questions to Ask Clients about Their Charitable Giving
by Ken Nopar, 9/19/16
Clients, their advisors and the charities they support will substantially benefit when the advisors proactively engage in the charitable conversation with clients far in advance of the end of the year.

Schwab Market Perspective: Round and Round We Go…
by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab, 9/16/16
Some complacency had set in along with the low-volatility summer rally, but Fed policy uncertainty yet again shook the market out of its slumber.

Will the Fed Take a (Rate) Hike?
by Roger Bayston of Franklin Templeton Investments, 9/16/16
With major US market averages hovering near all-time highs and the US economy showing modest growth, I believe that the Fed has the ammunition it needs to pull the trigger and raise its short-term interest rate, possibly this year.

Emerging-Market Resilience
by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments, 9/16/16
While emerging markets remain sensitive to macroeconomic indicators and global monetary policy—which means volatility is likely to persist for some time—we see signs confidence is returning to emerging markets and believe it is likely to continue.

The Nitty-Gritty of Currency Hedged Bonds
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital, 9/15/16
If you are like us and try to read as much economic research and market commentary as you can, you have probably noticed several stories regarding currency hedged government bonds.

Is That All?
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, 9/13/16
After a 51-day streak of days without the S&P 500 experiencing at least a 1% decline, the market hit a wall on Friday and was down 2.5% on a 40% jump in the volatility index (VIX). It was the worst single-day market decline since the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) in June.

Time or timing?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James, 9/13/16
“Hey Jeff,” an emailer wrote on Friday as we arrived in Quebec City from Cape Cod to have dinner with some family and Institutional friends, “I thought you said it would not be until mid/late-September before a point of vulnerability would arrive! Today is merely September 9, what gives?”

The Fed Is Likely Trapped
by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice, 9/13/16
The confusion at the Fed continues as Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams painted an upbeat picture of the U.S. economy in a speech on Tuesday. This, of course, comes despite recent disappointing data on both the employment and economic fronts.

A World of Pure Imagination
by Team of PIMCO, 9/13/16
A review of the month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

Last Week’s Highlights on APViewpoint
by Marianne Brunet, 9/12/16
The top conversations on APViewpoint last week were started by Scott MacKillop, Dan diBartolomeo, and Dave Yeske. They generated thoughtful discussion with wide ranging opinions on: the limits to our investment knowledge; tax evasion, the Panama Papers and global wealth management; and the history of the financial planning profession.

The Top Five Misperceptions that Harm Advisors
by Dan Solin, 9/12/16
If you want to increase your conversion rate, you need to change your perception of the process you use with prospective clients. Here’s my list of the top five most common misperceptions I’ve observed, in reverse order of importance.

The Danger in Office-Market REITs
by Keith Jurow, 9/12/16
With weakness becoming more and more obvious in several of the hottest office markets, here’s why large office-market REITs are substantially overpriced.

Look to Chindia for Gold’s Love Trade
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/12/16
A couple of weeks ago, I shared with you what I brought home from my trip to Toronto, Vancouver and New York City, where I had met with gold fund analysts.

The Most Interesting Phenomenon in Today's Jobs Market
by Rick Rieder of BlackRock, 9/12/16
There has been much focus over the past week on the August payroll growth slowdown and what it means for the timing of the next Fed hike. Rick Rieder sees a more interesting trend evident in the data.

Negative Rates Will Kill Growth
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, 9/9/16
For years I have argued that ultra-low interest rates act more as an economic sedative than a stimulant. This idea has elicited laughter from the economic establishment.

Summer Is over, but You Might Have Time for One More Cup…
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital, 9/8/16
As many head back to the office thinking about the possibilities of a September interest rate hike, the Fed's plans might have taken a hit last week given the weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and monthly Jobs data.

The Sidelines Could Be More Dangerous for Investors Than Getting on the Field
by Clint Siegner of Money Metals Exchange, 9/8/16
A year ago at this time, it was hard for investors to find available inventory for the most popular silver products – as well as some gold coins.

Recession Probability Models - September 2016
by Ted Kavadas of RevSD, 9/7/16
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.

Why Working-Age Men Are Disappearing From The Workforce
by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management, 9/7/16
Working-age males are disappearing from the US workforce at an alarming rate. Men age 25 to 54 now have a lower labor force participation rate than they did in 1940, as the Great Depression was winding down. Millions of men in this age group have virtually no work skills and no way to get them.

September Market Preview
by Brad McMillan of Commonwealth Financial Network, 9/7/16
Now that summer is almost over (but not quite yet!), it’s time to start thinking about what the fall may bring.

ECB Preview: More Easing Expected In December
by Andrew Bosomworth of PIMCO, 9/6/16
We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave policy unchanged at the 8 September Governing Council meeting.

Value, Growth and the Limits of Our Investment Knowledge Taming the Uncertainty Monster
by Scott MacKillop, 9/6/16
There are people in the investment community who claim to know things with a level of certainty that is unjustified. They develop rules-based investment strategies grounded in their views about “how things work.” Yet their strategies fail to recognize the complex and dynamic nature of the financial markets, undermine the credibility of our industry and, ultimately, could harm clients.

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI YoY Highest Since September 2013
by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 9/3/16
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 138.4, up 0.4 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 5.20%, up from 4.65% the previous week and its highest since September 2013. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 8.1.

Apple Gets a Shakedown from the EU. Is Ireland Next to Bail?
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 9/3/16
“Total political crap.” That’s how Apple CEO Tim Cook described the European Commission’s ruling that the iPhone maker must pay 13 billion euros ($14.5 billion), plus interest, in back taxes to Ireland, its longtime European host. Meanwhile, the island-nation is being accused of giving Apple an “illegal” sweetheart deal in exchange for jobs.

Adjusting to Disruptive Change
by Byron Wien of Blackstone, 9/2/16
Two conclusions emerged from the Benchmark Lunches this year. The first was that the world was condemned to a prolonged period of slow growth unless vigorous fiscal spending took place in the major industrialized economies.

Are the Returns of Jeremy Siegel’s “Superstar” Funds Likely to Persist?
by Larry Swedroe, 8/30/16
If historical returns provide useful insights when it comes to identifying skillful active managers, then surely those funds with the longest track records of success are most likely to be the “winners” of the future. I tested this hypothesis using data from Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run.

Take the Blinders Off Your Risk-Management Strategy
by Martin Atkin of AllianceBernstein, 8/30/16
Investors in many risk-managed strategies may be wondering why performance has trailed the benchmark over the past 12 months. Our question would be: is the approach broad enough?

Investor Confidence Is Slowly Improving
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 8/30/16
Equity markets have been trendless and little changed over the past month. Stocks drifted lower last week, with the S&P 500 Index falling 0.7%. The main economic event was Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, where she indicated rate hikes were looking more likely.

Government Funding Deadline Approaches amid Election Turmoil
by Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, 8/30/16
As the election rhetoric rages on, Congress returns from its summer recess facing a pre-election deadline. Funding authorization for the federal government expires on September 30. Thus, Congress must pass legislation to fund the government by that date to avoid a shutdown on October 1.

All Summer Long: Will the Extreme Lull in Volatility Persist?
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, 8/29/16
In my August 15 report, I applauded the stock market for behaving while I was on vacation in Africa for two weeks. For all investors who took vacations so far this summer, the market has been on its best behavior, for which we are all grateful I’m sure. But are the “dog days” of summer coming to an end?

Designing an Investment Plan Specifically for College Savers
by Duy Nguyen of Invesco, 8/29/16
In 2015, the State of Rhode Island selected Ascensus College Savings as the program manager and Invesco as the investment manager for the state’s 529 college savings plan, which is available to investors nationwide.

11 Reasons Why Everyone Wants to Move to Texas
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, 8/28/16
As a “Tex-Can”—born in Canada, lived in Texas the past 26 years—I’m so blessed to call Texas my home. I can’t wait to tell you all the fascinating things I’ve learned that makes the state a truly remarkable place.

Is Foreign Demand Fading?
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial, 8/26/16
Overseas investors remain a key support of domestic bond prices and have helped to drive the 10-year Treasury yield to a recent level of 1.55%.

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Inches Up
by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 8/26/16
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 138.1, up 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.65%, up from 4.38% the previous week and its highest since November 2013. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 8.1.

The Bullish Case Is More Compelling Than the Bearish
by Robert Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, 8/23/16
Most financial market developments occurred outside of equity markets last week. The U.S. dollar came under pressure following a generally dovish tone from the July Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes.

Thinking about Thinking: Part II
by Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management, 8/23/16
Last week, we examined the three types of statements deemed true. This week we will discuss the appropriate assignment of these statements and the dangers in their inappropriate use.

Rethinking Monetary Policy Frameworks
by Scott Brown of Raymond James, 8/22/16
In late August, central bankers from around the world come to the Kansas City Fed’s annual monetary policy symposium. This year’s theme is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.”
Results 4,501–4,550 of 6,535 found.