Secular forces in the global economy suggest we aren’t likely to see a new paradigm of stronger growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates under the Trump administration.
The Trump victory has inflicted a heavy dose of uncertainty on the capital intensive global auto industry.
The board’s expertise constitutes a valuable input into our investment process.
How might the coming DOL fiduciary rule impact advisors’ practices in the days to come?
A basic stock and bond portfolio is a great starting point for building an effective portfolio. Exposure to things like factors and alternative strategies, when implemented correctly, will enhance a basic stock and bond portfolio, not attempt to replace it.
Some advisors stand out. They aren’t always the smartest or the most charismatic, yet they are enormously successful, far more so than their peers. I have figured out why.
Over the last 7.5 years, the Case-Shiller national home price index has increased 24.9% on a cumulative basis. But I have argued in numerous articles that that figure is grossly overstated. A new RealtyTrac report supports my claim, and shows the actual number is only 16%.
Core equity managers have struggled to deliver this year in a rapidly changing market environment. We think exposure to volatile equity factors—which is often unintended—may be the culprit.
No forecaster has predicted equity returns as accurately has Jeremy Siegel over the post-crisis period. In our annual interview, he offers his forecasts for the coming year.
Last week’s letter with my thoughts on what Trump should do generated more responses than any other letter had in the last 17 years. As you might suspect, with a topic so controversial, not everyone agreed with me.
Chief Investment Officer Steven Vannelli, CFA, hosted a conference call to share the investment team’s analysis of the global equity and fixed income markets one week after the election.
We keep getting good news about employment and the labor market. But we rarely see the less optimistic numbers.
Abhay Deshpande founded Centerstone Investors and serves as the chief investment officer. He previously worked at First Eagle Investment Management with Jean-Marie Eveillard. In this interview, he discusses the opportunities he sees for his two recently introduced value funds.
What are the most important investment implications that you and I and your clients might consider post last week’s election?
I’m going to depart from the normal format of my letters, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do.
After years of deriding the airline industry, Warren Buffett confirmed this week that his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has invested nearly $1.3 billion in four big-name domestic carriers: American, Delta, United and Southwest.
The amount of debt in the world today creates significant risk for substantial inflation and/or deflation. Acknowledging this risk, it is important for investors to develop a plan for what they will do under diverse and adverse scenarios.
Since the election, much of the financial commentary has centered on the stock market's surprising surge.
For evidence, look no further than sales of bottled water in the first world. Our ancestors spent hundreds of billions of dollars developing the infrastructure to deliver potable water to every home, yet we spend billions each year to purchase bottled versions of what we can get for free almost anywhere. Boom – I just blew up the very foundation of economics.
A long-term orientation allows us to move from today’s headlines to tomorrow’s prospects. While current energy headlines are focused on OPEC’s ability to accelerate the rebalancing process, we are focused on two longer-term developments that are influencing our positioning in the energy sector.
Despite its recent popularity, many still don’t understand the potential opportunities and risks of passive investing. One of our experts takes a look at the potential trap of buying high.
Previously, I analyzed the performance of some of the leading and largest actively managed mutual funds that focus on high-dividend strategies. Today, I’ll examine the strategy of investing in companies that have shown persistent growth in dividends.
The top conversations on APViewpoint last week were started by Larry Swedroe, Adam Butler and Bob Veres. They generated thoughtful discussion with wide ranging opinions on: factor-based approaches to investing; factor investing research methodologies; and a new tool to visualize retirement planning.
The BlackRock Investment Institute shares the implications of Donald Trump's unexpected election win.
There is some important data on the schedule for this week, along with earnings and the expected doses of FedSpeak. None of that will attract much attention. Instead expect “all Trump, all the time”.
In a presidential election that grew more shocking with each passing week, the results somehow seem fitting. Peter Lefkin, senior vice president of government and external affairs at Allianz of America, reviews how it happened and explains why almost everyone was wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2016 election.
Although many were predicting a significant pullback on Mr. Trump’s election, we, in fact, got a fairly significant advance. What’s up with that? I suspect there are several reasons.
The transition to a Republican presidency and Trump’s rejection of politics as usual, which drew so many voters, naturally lead to questions about his impact on the economy and markets. Today on our blog we provide a high level overview of our thoughts of the significance of a Trump presidency.
The next 100 days are critical for the newly elected officials in the United States, and we will continue to gain clarity on many policy items over that timeframe. There is no doubt that this election, and outcome has challenged the status quo and we could see even small issues become larger should impasses persist.
Gold has rallied recently with the return of political uncertainty. But Russ points to another factor that suggests the gains can continue: inflation.
Given election-related distractions this week, today’s report will be chart-heavy and word-light; but on an important topic. Last Friday’s jobs report garnered much attention given its proximity to the next Federal Reserve meeting.
John West is a managing director and head of client strategies for Research Affiliates. In this interview, he discusses what assumptions advisors should use for capital-market returns over the next decade.
Wouldn’t it be nice if you could take a prospective client’s asset allocation and calculate the percent of time periods since 1926 that it would have survived a 30-year retirement?
After significant bouncebacks in the major indicators over the past couple of months, we saw a bit of a pullback in several components of the data in October.
With the S&P 500 down eight consecutive days for the first time since October 2008, many are wondering what this could mean for the rest of the year.
While it is not yet resolved whether the low-volatility and low-beta anomalies can be fully explained by exposures to other well-known factors, their popularity certainly has changed the valuation metrics of low-volatility stocks. At the very least, this should raise a flag of caution for investors who have been enticed by the historical data.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, there are some signs of weakness creeping into the data. Retail sales are at a new all-time high, but overall growth is decelerating and less than 2% real. Employment growth is also decelerating, from over 2% last year to 1.7% now. Housing starts and permits have flattened over the past year. There is nothing alarming in any of this but it is noteworthy that expansions weaken before they end, and these are signs of some weakening that bear monitoring closely.
Last month lived up to October’s traditional reputation as a difficult one for global stock markets. As political pundits discussed an “October surprise” in the context of the U.S. presidential election, investors were busily reacting to a series of developments that ultimately depressed returns. Stocks were pushed down in part by better-than-expected economic data, which investors viewed as raising the odds the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December.
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.
When looking at various countries or regions where we invest, we consider emerging markets as representing a disproportionate amount of where equity value exists today after several years of underperformance relative to developed markets.
Regular readers are aware of our research showing that the Knowledge Effect is really a “super factor”.
When the presidential election is over, investors can focus on what is going on in the world economy and what future investment opportunities are lurking out there.
Many shrewd investors who were nervous about overvalued shares had lost out before by selling too early and were coming back into the market.
This piece brings together all the Private Wealth Management research teams on a topic of common interest and current importance.
It is relatively common knowledge that when interest rates decline stocks ought to rise, and they typically do.
Has the institution of the Nobel Prize in economics been a cause of the global economic woes of the last 20 years – its financial crises, its economic slowdowns and its increasing intra-national inequalities? In their recent book, The Nobel Factor: The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy, and the Market Turn, authors Avner Offer and Gabriel Söderberg make a good, if somewhat haphazard, case that it has.
Smart beta. Empirical finance. Evidence-based investing. These terms, which were in the periphery of the investment vernacular just 10 years ago, have become the investment world’s most popular memes today. Why?
Low-vol strategies have attracted a lot of attention, in part because they portend to offer investors a free lunch – higher returns with lower volatility. But they carry hidden risks that every investor must understand.
As of October 27, stocks are up more than 6 percent year-to-date. Although slightly below the average, this is much higher than returns in the last two election cycles when a new president had to be selected: In 2008, the market plunged nearly 40 percent; in 2000, it ended down 9 percent.
