The search for investment portfolio returns is not going to get any easier in 2017 against a backdrop of record U.S. equity prices, narrow credit spreads and low bond yields.

The Year of the Dynamic ETF With the world digesting the surprising results of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, the team at IndexIQ has turned their thoughts to next year and their top five ETF-focused trends and insights for 2017.

When the Commerce Department reported on December 22 that 3Q Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 3.5%, many of us in the forecasting business wondered if that figure might be too optimistic. We also wondered whether the economy could sustain a 3+% growth rate in the 4Q.

It was a big first week of 2017 for the weather and for the U.S. markets. As temps dropped and snow hit nearly every state in the union, stocks only wanted to move into the clouds. The numbers showed that it was a different type of week with growth, biotech and FANG stocks leading the week one charge.

The December Employment Report showed the job market to be in good shape. The pace of job growth slowed in 2016, partly reflecting tighter labor market conditions.

‘Quality’ is one of the those terms in finance that if you ask three different investors to define you get four different answers.

Strong future growth is rooted in some basic dynamics in which Asia Pacific excels.

Factors ranging from China’s evolving economy to the rise of nationalism combined to make 2016 a year that will not be quickly forgotten.

In conjunction with the publishing of a summary of Schwab's 2017 outlook across asset classes; this report is a more detailed summary of my 2017 outlook, with a dash of rear-view mirror analysis of the year just ended. Each of the broad topics discussed below will be further unpacked over the next couple of months in individual reports.

The fourth quarter of 2016 was a profitable period for globally diversified multi asset managers. All major domestic large cap indices were up for both the quarter and the year.

As we always do in January, this month we focus on the investment minefield laid out in front of us and we argue that with upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany, and economic uncertainties globally, this year could turn into a rather tricky one for investors. There are reasons to be optimistic, however, and we hope that 2017 will be a prosperous year for you all.

We all know that there is a savings crisis in America. According to the National Institute on Retirement Security (NIRS), the median savings balance of near-retirement households is only around $12,000, while the median saving balance for all working-age households is only around $3,000.

Each year I make a practice of reviewing The Ten Surprises of the year that has passed. Last year’s list was on its way to being one of my best and then Donald Trump won the presidential election and everything changed.

Grappling with the question of how much is one of the toughest relating to pensions

The nascent recovery in emerging markets has been thrown into question by Trump’s election. While the concerns warrant attention, we still see compelling reasons to invest in developing economies.

What effect will the index fund revolution and the Department of Labor’s (DOL) fiduciary rule have on active managers? The data shows that active management is still a healthy business model. But industry consolidation is coming and advisors will need to change the way they construct portfolios.

Why do so many pundits and politicians, including the future director of the Office of Management and Budget, beat the debt drum so loudly and so often? It’s one of the most effective, and most abused, wedge issues in American politics.

Instead of trying to answer questions about the future, I’ll try to list those we should be asking as 2017 opens. These are the things that I sit and meditate about when I consider the future of economics, markets, and investing. Today’s economy is something like an old-fashioned Swiss watch. It’s a thing of beauty when all those delicate little gears mesh just right. If you ever take the time to actually study the inner workings of the marvelous manifestations of human ingenuity that keep us all alive, it is difficult not to come away awestruck by the ability of the human mind to craft such complexity. But if any of the gears get just a little out of whack, the entire contraption can grind to a halt.

With the US stock market roaring ahead to close 2016 on a high note, the question for many investors is whether the momentum can be sustained.

Included in this week’s On My Radar: -Pension Fund Red Ink – Check Out Your State (Chart) -Foreigners are Dumping Treasury Bonds at Record Rate -The Year in Review -Trade Signals – Strong Dollar, Weak Gold, Equity Trend Up, Bond Trend Down, Sentiment Remains Far Too Optimistic

At a time when the US is poised to turn inward, China’s economic performance is more important globally than ever. Whether China can achieve sustainable growth patterns in the coming years will depend on several key factors, the most important being internal

As the year winds down, our weekly commentaries have reviewed how 2016 forecasts played out, and we do the same this week with a review of fixed income.

Investors have been drawn to real assets in general and to real estate in particular due to the comparative stability and attractiveness of their income returns and the prospects for growth.

An investment landscape of increasingly binary outcomes requires fundamentally different involvement by investors. Importantly, those taking their cues primarily from the US economy are likely to be woefully unprepared.

The evidence is overwhelming that past performance is a poor predictor of active managers’ performance. Studies have found that, beyond a year or two, there is little evidence of performance persistence. A newly published academic study reveals why it’s so hard for active managers to persistently beat a benchmark.

A quarter-century before Brexit came “Black Wednesday.” On Wednesday evening, September 16, 1992, the British government announced its exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, prompting a dramatic devaluation of the British pound. Renowned hedge fund manager George Soros’ legendary bet against the pound in 1992 and his $1 billion profit on Black Wednesday defines for many the swashbuckling style of a global macro trader.

When dealing with markets, one must avoid, as much as possible, emotional responses and simply focus on the facts before us. Last weekend, I presented my “factual” analysis of the market, and explained why I have retained a larger degree bullish perspective.

The Shiller CAPE ratio is typically regarded as a stock market valuation measure. But the CAPE itself is not a good stock market timer. However, it can be indirectly used for market timing by determining a cycle-ID as formulated by Theodore Wong.

Longtime investment professional Maury Fertig of Relative Value Partners shares his perspective on “opportunities and risks” in the municipal bond closed-end fund sector.

We assess three global economic scenarios for 2017.

As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the upcoming year.

My colleague Carlos Hardenberg shares his perspective on the opportunities and challenges he sees in emerging markets today and as we head into 2017.

Bond investors are feeling a little shell-shocked after the rise in interest rates in November.

To see how well Janus’ actively managed funds have performed for its investors, I’ll compare the results of its actively managed equity funds to those of index funds from Vanguard and the structured asset class funds of DFA.

The Queens Road Small Value fund has outperformed its benchmark, the Russell 2000 Value Index, over the past 10 years and since inception in 2002, earning an annualized return of 9.59% vs. 8.38% for the Russell 2000 Value Index. I spoke with Steven Scruggs, who has served as portfolio manager for that entire 14-year period.

“If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” – Walter Bahr

Today we’ll look at stock valuation several different ways, see what history tells us about the future, and then think about how to react. There are good reasons to think that the Trump rally could morph into the stereotypical and expected Santa Claus rally. Toward the end of the letter, I will comment on why. It’s actually kind of a rational process. And then what?

The post-election market run has been accompanied by improving economic data and increasing confidence. The result has the punditry asking a question that seemed crazy in January: Will the Dow hit 20K?

November turned out to be an excellent month for the major U.S. stock indexes, with all three, plus the Russell 2000 index of small caps, hitting record highs.

Invesco Fixed Income utilizes a framework based on the idea that changes in growth, inflation and financial conditions drive much of market beta performance, and that understanding these “macro factors” can help us understand market conditions and price action.

If you are approaching retirement, maximizing your potential income is likely on your mind, and it can pay to plan ahead.

While I can’t always respond to each of your questions directly, I do enjoy hearing from my readers and followers and value your feedback.

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.

Value has broadly been accepted as an investing style and, historically, portfolios formed on cheap valuations have outperformed expensive portfolios.

The stock market has had an excited run since the presidential election, with heightened optimism for growth looking ahead into 2017. Not to rain on the optimists’ parade, but there was actually ample evidence of improving growth before the election.

Italians are headed to the polls this Sunday (and thus this letter is reaching you a little earlier than usual) – but no one is quite sure what is on the ballot. On the surface, the voters are considering whether to approve constitutional reforms that should make the government operate more effectively (or not, depending on your point of view). But many people think the real question is whether the current government should stay in power and whether Italy should remain yoked to the Eurozone.

Since its founding 35 years ago, The Leuthold Group has utilized a distinctive blend of quantitative, fundamental, and technical analysis to guide its investment activities.

Employment growth is decelerating, from over 2% last year to 1.6% now. Housing starts and permits have flattened over the past year. There is nothing alarming in any of this but it is noteworthy that expansions weaken before they end, and these are signs of some weakening that bear monitoring closely.