China’s Belt and Road Initiative – from increased commodity demand to shifting supply routes.
Historians tend to view the shift from one hegemon to another as a clear, abrupt break. But, in reality, faded hegemons tend to cling to elements of former glory. As we watch Brexit unfold, one persistent theme has emerged—much of Brexit is about unresolved issues surrounding the end of the British Empire.
Brexit negotiations are once again going to the wire. With no resolution in place and the clock ticking down, Sandy Nairn, chairman of Templeton Global Equity Group and CEO of Edinburgh Partners, looks at the possible outcomes.
Nonfarm payrolls rose a bit more than expected in the initial estimate for March. While the monthly data are subject to statistical noise and seasonal adjustment difficulties, the underlying trend in job growth is likely moderating. That shouldn’t be a surprise.
Research group Metals Focus released its Gold Focus report this week forecasting that global gold demand will climb to its highest level in four years. Plus, economist David Rosenberg shares what he thinks ballooning nonfinancial corporate debt means for investors.
As anticipated, the estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth was revised lower (to 2.2%, vs. +2.6% in the “initial” estimate). All major components grew a bit less than in the previous estimate. Recent figures have generally been consistent with a lackluster pace of growth in 1Q19.
U.S. stocks experienced their biggest quarterly gains in nearly a decade. The S&P 500 completed its best quarter since 2009, gaining 14%, while the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 gained 14% and 12%, respectively.
A resolution to the China-U.S. trade dispute is still in the works, but China’s manufacturing sector just returned to growth for the first time in four months, a sign that its government’s economic stimulus appears to be working.
In today’s Weekly Market Commentary, we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2019: policy, the economy, rates, and profits. While we expect a hard-fought battle between these factors and, with it, some market volatility, we still see the potential for further gains for stocks this year.
My career started in 1994, which was a stealth bear market for stocks and an outright bear market for bonds. Fed Chair Alan Greenspan hiked rates seven times as he played catch up in response to a percolating economy that rediscovered its sea legs coming off the 1991 recession.
IMF recently lowered its growth rate forecast for the global economy. We expect growth to command a premium as it becomes scarcer, while growth laggards will be penalised. It is therefore important to unpack IMF’s global growth forecast to determine who is growing and who is slowing.
The market, and the yield curve, are trying to tell you something very important.
While the conventional wisdom holds that it is never possible to "time the market," it might seem that major shifts – like the quadrupling of the US stock market over the last decade – should be at least partly foreseeable. Why aren't they?
Recession is approaching but not just yet. Yet like the Fed, I am data-dependent and the latest data are not encouraging. Today, we’ll examine this and consider what may have changed.
Following the Federal Reserve’s pivot to patience, we believe U.S. short-term interest rates are now anchored in The New Neutral. Global growth keeps synching lower, but may experience a soft landing later this year if China’s economy stabilizes and trade tensions ease.
China's A-shares are gaining a larger role in MSCI indices. Matthews Asia's portfolio strategy team offers its views.
A major goal of this series on sectors is to illustrate the reality that it is a market of stocks rather than a stock market. With this article I am technically covering the Industrial Services Sector.
Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next.
Sound investing requires linking the myriad mega-trends and world events we’re experience into a tapestry of potential outcomes. Key trends today include the growth of globalization, aging demographics, the acceleration and adoption of technological change, and the effect of these factors on the world populace.Exploring possible outcomes can serve as a directional checklist as the future unfolds.
Turns out price matters for excess returns, and that what’s worked before doesn’t necessarily persist into the future. “Many factors aren’t real.”
What happens in China clearly does not stay in China so the outlook for China’s growth in 2019 is one of the keys to how the global economy will perform and how financial markets will respond to that level of growth.
We believe short-term interest rates in the U.S. are now anchored in The New Neutral, as global growth keeps synching lower.
Sinology explains that the key to understanding China’s debt problem is that it is the result of state banks lending to state firms at the direction of the state, so there is no mark-to-market pressure.
Automated marketing is fast and affordable. But getting a return on your investment requires customizing the content to your niche. Here are my seven content customizations to turn generic ramblings into relationship-building content.
Research demonstrates that the investment factor has explanatory power for the cross section of stock returns, with high-investment firms tending to underperform low-investment firms.
When will prices in China and Japan become attractive?
Through “harmonization” – the broker-dealer community, aided and abetted by the SEC, is destroying the fiduciary standard, while imposing only new “casual disclosure” obligations upon broker-dealers. At its very core, this is an effort to make RIAs/IARs and BDs/RRs look identical. Once this is accomplished, FINRA will swoop in to seek oversight over the “harmonized” broker and investment adviser communities.
The value of negative-yielding bonds around the world has ticked up to more than $9.32 trillion. Although still below the 2016 high, this indicates that investors fear global economic growth is slowing. Is this gold’s time to shine?
In a new white paper on GMO’s website -- “Total Factor Productivity Growth = Totally Fictitious Pretentious Garbage” -- James Montier and Philip Pilkington take aim at the argument that stagnating incomes are to be blamed on poor productivity growth.
Recession fears have risen and stocks have become more volatile, but is now the time to prepare for a sharp downturn?
The divergence between recent bullish factor performance and weaker economic fundamenta...
Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for March? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
I stumbled on two “hacks” and found there was data to support how they improve happiness and productivity. I am sharing my research with you. Both have had a profound impact on my life.
As tempting as the proposition might be, there isn’t convincing evidence that a style-timing strategy will be profitable.
I’m more intrigued with untold stories than well-told stories; which is why my contrarian side wonders whether there’s too much investor complacency about inflation.
I will examine three concerns that are often raised about factor-based investing.
We have a big economic calendar with some reporting still catching up from the government shutdown. Inflation data, small business and consumer confidence, and retail sales lead the list. In addition to the U.S. economic data, there is increasing concern about China.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares our view on growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.
Our nine-part analytical series on the analytical framework for evaluation and assessment of economic moats is designed to develop a deeper understanding of different types of competitive advantages and an appropriate analytical framework. This article focuses on switching cost as the source of a sustainable competitive advantage.
Extremism at either end of the political spectrum can raise huge obstacles for business and investors. The difference, though, is that hard-left legislation seeks to punish wealth and prosperity through politics of envy.
I was born too early to benefit much from Sesame Street, but I still loved The Muppets. Kermit the Frog was my favorite character; alternatively in full control and overwhelmed, Kermit struggled to make sense of the nonsensical. To this day, there are times that I feel confronted with the same challenge.
The strong economy and market pressure may drive companies to pay down debt.
We have an important calendar with employment and housing news. Some important market worries have been avoided, at least for a time. What is behind the rebound in stocks.
Economic data releases that were delayed due to the partial government shutdown, including fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product, have been rolling in.
Gene Podkaminer oversees one of the largest offerings of multi-asset products in the financial industry. He is a senior vice president in head of multi-asset research strategies at Franklin Templeton. In this interview, he discusses the three trends that will drive investment returns in 2019.
Observing the latest developments of the largest corporate defined benefit (DB) plans in the U.S. offers a glimpse into the DB industry, and perhaps a foreshadowing of things to come. After two of the strongest years ever for pension contributions, the coming year may feature the weakest seen in a generation.
The Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund (TBGVX) has an exceptional track record, outperforming its benchmark and peer-group average by over 300 basis points annually since its inception 25 years ago. I interviewed the members of Tweedy, Browne’s investment committee.
Earlier this month, I penned an article asking if we “really shouldn’t worry about the Fed’s balance sheet?” The question arose from a specific statement made by previous New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley...
The sharp rebound in equities seems to be in contrast to the deterioration in data, which could lead to near-term volatility.
After MSCI decided today to boost the allocation to Chinese onshore stocks in its emerging-market indices, global investors are likely to pump more money into the market. But watch out for crowds. Flows into China are concentrated in a small group of large-cap stocks.
