Donald Trump took the world by surprise in winning the U.S. presidential election.; While the Trump triumph and ensuing policy conjecture held the spotlight, a flurry of positive economic releases globally signaled solid fundamentals.; Risk sentiment built, particularly in the U.S.
It's not unusual for a new year to bring changes. But 2017 may be particularly noteworthy. Topping the list is a new U.S. president and Republican-controlled Congress, bringing the prospect of a new direction for many policies, regulations and legislative priorities. Elections and leadership changes also are on the calendar in several major countries, including France, Germany and China. What may not change next year are the geopolitical tensions that continue to pressure several regions around the globe.
Inflation can be understood as the destruction of a currency’s purchasing power. To combat this, investors, central banks and families have historically stored a portion of their wealth in gold. I call this the Fear Trade.
Donald Trump’s largely unexpected victory of the U.S. presidential election echoed the Brexit vote of just six months prior, reinforcing an ongoing fundamental shift in political currents and capital markets around the globe.
Should history regard Greenspan as a “maestro” who managed the economy to new heights of prosperity or as a blunderer who let the housing crisis, and other simultaneous crises, unfold?
While on the surface the Italian Referendum appears to be only about the structure of government power and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s desire to pass economic reforms, beneath the surface is a serious financial issue that has the potential to impact not just Italy, but Europe and beyond. This may sound small and meaningless to you and me but it is not.
Your business name is your firm’s first impression to the public and potential clients. Choosing a name is a critically important decision and choosing a good one drives revenue. Choosing a confusing name or one that is hard to understand will lead to spending as much time explaining your company name as in finding new clients.
Italians are headed to the polls this Sunday (and thus this letter is reaching you a little earlier than usual) – but no one is quite sure what is on the ballot. On the surface, the voters are considering whether to approve constitutional reforms that should make the government operate more effectively (or not, depending on your point of view). But many people think the real question is whether the current government should stay in power and whether Italy should remain yoked to the Eurozone.
Next Tuesday will mark four weeks since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his surprise demonetization announcement that has sent shockwaves throughout the South Asian country’s economy.
Secular forces in the global economy suggest we aren’t likely to see a new paradigm of stronger growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates under the Trump administration.
On Friday, November 25, Fidel Castro died at age 90. The former revolutionary and hardline dictator of Cuba was among the 20th century’s longest-serving leaders, third only to Elizabeth II and Bhumibol Adulyadej, the King of Thailand, who passed away in October.
Corporate sentiment improved during the third quarter based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for third quarter 2016 earnings season.
In Part 1, I introduced my Primary-ID model that identifies major price movements in the stock market. In Part 2, I presented Secondary-ID, a complementary model that tracks minor price movements. In this article, I combine these two rules- and evidence-based models into a composite called Cycle-ID and discuss the virtue of a single model.
Getting clients to spend time reading our emails is challenging. That’s why I was struck by an advisor about who’d sent an article to clients that had nothing to do with their investments.
With the Republican Party in full control of the US government, fiscal stimulus will boost economic growth in the short term. But enacting large tax cuts and boosting public spending in an economy already nearing full employment implies accelerating inflation, higher interest rates, or probably some combination of the two.
Last week’s letter with my thoughts on what Trump should do generated more responses than any other letter had in the last 17 years. As you might suspect, with a topic so controversial, not everyone agreed with me.
In May, Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines. An unconventional political figure, he is considered populist in the mold of Turkish leader Recep Erdogan or Indian PM Narendra Modi. Perhaps most controversially, Duterte has embraced China and rejected its long-standing ally, the US.
I always feel guilty when Thanksgiving rolls around. I’m thankful but feel more and more stressed as the year progresses. I know you are a hypnotherapist among other things. Do I need hypnosis or just a good old-fashioned shrink?
What are the most important investment implications that you and I and your clients might consider post last week’s election?
The U.S. bond market has retreated since the election. Long-term yields have risen by almost 40 basis points. It appears that the 30-year-old bull market in bonds is really over.
Negative and near-zero interest rates show central banks’ desperation to avoid deflation. More important, they highlight the bleak state of the global economy.
Here’s our view on what a Trump presidency and Republican Congress likely mean for markets over the near, medium and longer terms.
The election is over but some uncertainty remains, which means bouts of volatility are likely to persist. The Fed is likely to hike rates in December but uncertainty about the path of rates in 2017 will persist. Additional uncertainty may come from elections around the world, with the potential for a continuation of surprising outcomes that could rattle markets at times.
I’m starting this memo a week before Election Day. I promise to try to stay away from the merits of the candidates and the question of who will win, and instead confine myself to the important messages that we should take away from the election and the actions we should push for as a result. The outcome of tomorrow’s election won’t change these things as far as I’m concerned.
At first glance, Clinton appears less favorable to both business and Wall Street. But it's the opposite.
While it is not yet resolved whether the low-volatility and low-beta anomalies can be fully explained by exposures to other well-known factors, their popularity certainly has changed the valuation metrics of low-volatility stocks. At the very least, this should raise a flag of caution for investors who have been enticed by the historical data.
The S&P 1500 notched its worst monthly return since January as investors looked ahead to the presidential election and the Fed’s last meeting in 2016.
When looking at various countries or regions where we invest, we consider emerging markets as representing a disproportionate amount of where equity value exists today after several years of underperformance relative to developed markets.
Borneo is the world’s third-largest island and its equatorial rainforest is home to many species of plants and animals, which attracts tourists from around the world. Borneo also boasts significant power resources, including hydroelectric power, coal and natural gas deposits; liquefied natural gas is a key export.
Smart beta. Empirical finance. Evidence-based investing. These terms, which were in the periphery of the investment vernacular just 10 years ago, have become the investment world’s most popular memes today. Why?
Low-vol strategies have attracted a lot of attention, in part because they portend to offer investors a free lunch – higher returns with lower volatility. But they carry hidden risks that every investor must understand.
The last two OMR’s have talked about the long-term debt. I believe it is the significant headwind we face. As CMG’s Brian Schreiner said to me this week, “The math doesn’t allow for a soft landing.” Read on and please let me know what you think.
It turns out most companies are doing well, but a small group shows results so dismal that they weigh down the entire market. Worse, that group may not recover nearly as fast as some analysts think. We will see why in a little bit.
Portfolio Manager Charlie Dreifus explains the Fed's conundrum, why there's too much hesitation in the market and economy, and the challenges to subsequent growth.
For much of the second half of the 20th Century, and even into the new millennium, “Globalization” was the dominant theme used to describe the drift of the world economy.
Mary Ellen Stanek Addresses Baird Advisors Institutional Investors Conference.
I’ve written a great deal about debt. In last week’s piece, I showed the enormity of the problem. Growth is slow and I believe will remain in the 1.5% range. Not good enough.
The 2016 election year is bringing out the worst among some elements of society.
Investors first fell in love with American small cap stocks in the late 1970s when small companies became recognized as more nimble, fast growing, and more able to adapt to changes to technology than their bloated, plodding large competitors.
Metals investors wonder what this presidential election will mean for gold and silver markets. Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and the years of price inflation that followed, presidents have largely ignored gold, the Federal Reserve, and other issues related to sound money.
We have normal week for economic data, and a big week for earnings reports. The last Presidential debate will grab headlines. We have been monitoring these factors for weeks, but something new is showing up in the data.
This week we are going to look at the US healthcare system, not simply to critique Obamacare, but to explore the deeper problems. Warning: this letter will print much longer as the latter half of the letter has a lot of charts and graphs.
Two weekend articles, in major US newspapers, left us shaking our heads. The Washington Post wrote that "economic growth actually kills people," while The Wall Street Journal published a piece saying, ironically, we should get used to slow growth - it's normal.
Arnold Palmer! Well done our wonderful friend, well done. And welcome home!
CCR Wealth Management’s Outlook communication seeks to update our clients on market conditions currently affecting or which may affect asset values and investment performance.
The S&P 1500 capped its fourth consecutive quarter of positive returns (and its 26th out of the last 30), as volatility reverted back up, closer to historical levels.
I am going to begin this update with a very simple proposition: get your shopping list in gear, as the time to buy is upon us.
Chairman Chuck Royce and Co-CIO Francis Gannon look at broadening small-cap strength in the volatile third quarter, discuss why value should continue to lead in the current cycle, and explain where they are finding opportunities.
Over the weekend, I got a few tweets talking about some technical analysis currently being passed around the Internet suggesting the S&P 500 is about to make a significant move towards 2400.
