The prospect of stabilizing commodity prices and improving corporate earnings has helped rebuild investor interest in emerging markets over the past year. But returning investors may find the constituents of today’s emerging markets are very different from those of the past.
I know that I am not the only one feeling it. You can see the increasing risk in the markets and uglier action on the tape. Credit is seeing selling even as recession fears are distant. Bank stocks are rolling over even with the Fed raising interest rates.
Recent months have been unusually eventful, characterized by a swing in the global political landscape, U.S. dollar strength, geopolitical flash points, demonetization in India and military coups in Turkey (among many others), all feeding into general market nervousness and a significant rise in volatility. This was certainly the case in emerging markets.
A common lament during the presidential campaign was over middle-class income stagnation and the wealth of the top 1%. But are most people getting poorer while the rich get richer? In a sparkling – and delightfully short – new contribution to the econo-optimist genre, Johan Norberg, author of Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future, emphatically answers “no.”
Investor exuberance is being supported by proposed fiscal policy such as lower corporate taxes, deregulation and historically large budget cuts to help finance the rebuilding of the nation’s infrastructure and military.
As the National People’s Congress convenes, we highlight three government priorities to watch.
The proliferation of liquid alternative mutual funds happened in response to the 2008-2009 recession, which was followed by an extended period of unusually low interest rates.
I recently had the opportunity to visit South Africa, which has seen its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
After finishing 2016 up 25 percent, commodities are getting another boost from bullish investors. Investment bank Citigroup forecasts commodity prices will increase this year on strengthening demand in China and mounting inflation inspired by President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies.
Great companies can come from anywhere, and emerging markets have more than their fair share. We’ve identified three megatrends we expect to give birth to tomorrow’s superstars—and that no globally inclined portfolio should be without.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has been tightly coiled in a “zone of death,” Jeffrey Gundlach said. Since the start of the year, it has traded between 2.4% and 2.5%, but it is poised to rally to 2.25% before it retreats to 3.0% by the end of the year, according to Gundlach.
On February 13th, Kim Jong Nam, the older half-brother of Kim Jong Un, the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, was assassinated at an airport in Malaysia. This event offers insights into the “Hermit Kingdom” and shows the audacious nature of the regime.
This article takes a hard-nosed look at the pummeling being taken by active management and argues that improving can no longer be approached passively. It must become a core competency for every active manager.
One hundred years after the Russian Revolution, the tsars and the USSR may be gone, but Russia itself is alive and well. Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors says that with the US becoming more isolationist, Russia has a chance to revise its standing with the US and EU – but this time, as an equal.
40 percent of companies now in operation around the world will not exist “in a meaningful way” sometime within the next two decades. To survive, companies will need to reinvent themselves by integrating digitization into the fabric of their business strategy.
I recently penned a blog on opportunities within leisure and entertainment in emerging markets, including the travel industry. With improved infrastructure and more access to reasonably priced flights, more travelers have been able to explore exotic locations they had previously only read about or seen on television.
Regulators and policymakers in China have been enticing foreign investors with easier access to its bond markets – and David Tan, Asia-Pacific fixed-income CIO with Allianz Global Investors, says it’s working. Of particular interest are green bonds: China has become the third-largest issuer and we expect continued growth in this area.
Do you have any tips for knowing when a prospect is ready to buy versus when someone is going to drag their feet and potentially not commit? We have too many situations where we prepare the paperwork and it remains unsigned but we don’t know why.
Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that we could expect “significant” tax reform by August, including tax cuts for middle-income Americans and corporations. Like clockwork, the major stock indices rallied to all-time highs in intraday trading.
Ross Glotzbach is head of research and a principal at Southeastern Asset Management, one of the most respected value managers. In this interview, he discusses his investment outlook in an era of political and economic uncertainty.
Inflation just got another jolt, rising as much as 2.5 percent year-over-year in January, the highest such rate since March 2012. Led by higher gasoline, rent and health care costs, consumer prices have now advanced for the sixth straight month. In addition, January is the second straight month for rates to be above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
Today we come to part 3 of my tax reform series. So far, we’ve introduced the challenge and begun to describe the main proposed GOP solution. Today we’ll look at the new and widely misunderstood “border adjustment” idea and talk about both its good and bad points
In a series of articles we published in 2016, we show that relative valuations predict subsequent returns for both factors and smart beta strategies in exactly the same way price matters in stock selection and asset allocation.
Uncertainty about US trade policy changes that could potentially harm emerging market economies dragged them down 4% during the fourth quarter of 2016, underperforming developed markets by 2%.1 Yet emerging market economies generally showed positive signs, with exports beginning to recover, commodity prices rebounding, and inflation remaining benign.
In the past year, S&P profits have grown 46% yoy. Sales are 4.5% higher. By some measures, profit margins are back at their prior highs. This is a remarkable turnaround from a year ago, when profits had declined by 15% and most investors interpreted this as a sure sign that a recession and a new bear market were underway.
In this report, we define nuclear blackmail and differentiate it from blackmail in a nuclear context. We discuss why this didn’t develop during the Cold War but why it could happen now. We also analyze how nuclear blackmail might be used as part of coercive diplomacy as well as part of conventional conflict.
Back in November, I wrote that domestic carriers are likely to see the new president—himself the former owner of the now-defunct Trump Airlines—as a strong partner in several key areas. Although a couple of airline CEOs have recently expressed strong opposition to some of Trump’s protectionist immigration policies, yesterday’s meeting appeared to be constructive, with the president telling the group he would soon be announcing something “phenomenal in terms of tax and developing our aviation infrastructure.”
Happy Chinese New Year to all my friends and followers! There’s no question it’s a big holiday for leisure and entertainment. Last year, retail and dining expenditures for the Lunar New Year came in at 754 billion yuan ($US115 billion), according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.
If President Trump’s promise to increase defense spending comes to fruition, it would sharply reverse the trend of the past five years—and have important implications for the outlook on US growth and inflation.
Within hours of assuming office, Donald Trump began issuing executive orders and policy proposals to fulfill his campaign promises. Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, asks if Trump really wants to “make America great again”, is he addressing the long-term structural problems that sorely need fixing?
The usual thrust of this letter is economics, finance, and investing. Lately, however, the political process has been invading my normal domain – sometimes to the dismay of some of my readers.
Although global equity markets have rallied recently, some investors may feel unsettled about the changes occurring in many parts of the world—and what those changes could mean for their portfolios.
After little more than two weeks, President Donald Trump’s honeymoon with Wall Street appears to have been put on hold—for the moment, at least—with major indices making only tepid moves since his January 20 inauguration. That includes the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which surged in the days following Election Day on hopes that Trump’s pledge to roll back regulations and lower corporate taxes would benefit domestic small businesses the most.
President Donald J. Trump was elected on promises to “Make America Great Again,” and since January 20 he’s already signed a number of executive orders to tighten border security and ease regulations.
The percentage of positive revisions to developed market sales and earnings estimates jumped over the last month, with an average of 76% of companies reporting better sales estimates and 70% reporting better earnings estimates.
Investors need to prepare for more extreme economic outcomes – both good and bad.
Capacity utilization in the global chemical industry has an 88% correlation with IMF data for global GDP growth. December’s data is now warning that a downturn has likely begun.
Tomorrow marks the Lunar New Year, the most important date in the Chinese calendar. It’s also the start of the longest holiday at two weeks, during which the largest mass migration of humans occurs every year as families reunite and go on vacations, both domestic and overseas.
This month marks my 30-year anniversary with Templeton Emerging Markets Group! The opportunity to open up new emerging markets, learn about new industries, meet wonderful people around the world and most of all be part of the Templeton emerging-markets family has been a real blessing.
In his roundup of our latest Investment Forum, Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, highlights the top themes driving markets and economies – including China’s growing role in global indices, Trump’s ability to disrupt the status quo, Europe’s super-election cycle and the “hunt for income” going global.
Faced with a Tweeter-in-chief, how are investors to navigate what’s ahead? Is there a strategy behind President Trump’s outbursts; and if so, how shall investors position themselves to protect their portfolios or profit from it?
Investors would have done well in 2016 to heed the words of Heraclitus, paraphrased: “Expect the unexpected.” Brexit and the U.S. election results were two glaring examples of the unexpected becoming reality.
Donald Trump’s policies appear almost certain to contribute to volatility in Asian markets during 2017. For active fixed-income investors who understand the dynamics of bonds and currencies in the region, this creates opportunities.
Take Warren Buffett. He backed Hillary Clinton throughout the primaries and general election. And yet just yesterday, on the eve of Trump’s inauguration, he said he supported the new president and his cabinet “overwhelmingly,” adding that he’s confident America “will work fine under Donald Trump.”
On 11/4/16, the 65-day correlation between between the S&P 500 and US 10-year treasury yields was as negative as it had been at anytime since June 2007. The 65-day rolling correlation was -30% compared to a 73% correlation that had occurred just a few months earlier in June.
Global Strategist for Allianz Global Investors Neil Dwane says the rumbling sound being heard by politicians and power-brokers at the World Economic Forum in Davos comes from a new political avalanche of populism – one that threatens to sweep away decades of pro-globalization sentiment and change the investment landscape.
With U.S. stocks rallying, investors may be tempted to stick with a home country bias. Russ discusses why Japan is still worth a look.
For the first time since 2011-2012, inflation surprises are positive in many parts of the world. The Citi Inflation Surprise Index is at the highest level since 9/2011 in Asia-Pacific, it’s at the highest level since 10/2011 for the Eurozone, and it’s at the highest level since 5/2012 in the emerging markets.
There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess.
While Chinese growth looks stable into early 2017, a more marked slowdown by the second quarter appears inevitable.
