The S&P 500 is up more than 25% year to date and has notched 26 record highs since January.
We have reached a stage in the cycle where you need to think out of the box in order to deliver respectable returns. Investing like most of us have done in the great bull market will not deliver returns anywhere near the levels we have enjoyed over the past 35-40 years. This month’s Absolute Return Letter offers a solution.
Yes, there is a downturn in the Global economy, numerous factors are combining together in what seems like a perfect storm of negativity to depress the global economy and quell even the hardiest of investors from any attempts at risk taking. Nothing could, or may I say should, be farther from the truth.
As Thanksgiving comes to an end, and the busy holiday shopping season begins, here are some need-to-know numbers you may have missed from this past week.
There have been improvements in corporate governance in a number of emerging markets, but it remains a work in progress.
Changing dynamics may present a new set of opportunities for investors.
We will spend the latter part of the 2020s going through a kind of worldwide bankruptcy. We won’t call it that, and it will take a lot of argument because we won’t have a court to take charge. But we will collectively realize the situation can’t go on and find a way to end it. I’ve taken to calling this “the Great Reset.”
Emerging markets provide many potential investment opportunities, but corporate governance shortfalls can present challenges. Over the years, some countries have moved faster than others to plug their governance gaps. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Chetan Sehgal and Andrew Ness outline what corporate governance is and how emerging markets are making improvements in this area.
As China's economy continues its shift toward services and consumption, small and medium-sized businesses are accelerating this transformation.
It’s hard to believe now, but the very first Singles Day in 2009 generated only about $7 million for Chinese mega-retailer Alibaba. No one could have guessed then that, 10 years later, the 24-hour shopping event would see that sales figure surge to an all-time record of $38.4 billion, an unbelievable multiple of 5,471.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q3 2019.
American history teaches that we can rise above our deep political divide, according to Nicholas Burns. The U.S. rose to independence based on the “power of ideas,” he said. Lincoln put the country together after a divide far deeper than what we face today, and FDR led the country to victory in its most difficult war. Those challenges were infinitely more difficult than what we face now, Burns said.
This is an absolute monarchy we’re talking about, after all, and so global investors should not expect to have any shareholder rights. Aramco’s board of directors will have a fiduciary duty to MBS and any future monarch, not to investors. This has some serious implications.
Global equity markets continued to face uncertainties during the third quarter of this year, but by and large, they remained resilient.
For many financial planners, outsourcing is the secret to their success. For others, it’s the worst mistake they ever made. The difference comes down to the best practices for making the arrangement work.
In October the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2019 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.2% in July. This represents a marked slowing from global growth of 3.8% in 2017. The primary driver of the slowdown has been a retrenchment in global trade and business investment in response to the ratcheting up of trade tariffs since early 2018.
As the world watches the US-China trade spat roll on, it is important to look beyond the headlines and examine the economic reality and progress within emerging markets, according to Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Andrew Ness. He explains why investors should pay attention to the economic evolution taking place in emerging-market economies.
Investors may assume they have adequate exposure to gold because they’re invested in a commodities fund. But many of these funds have a relatively small weighting in gold, and so their gold exposure is much smaller than they realized.
When the US and ultimately the rest of the Western world began to engage China, resulting in China finally being allowed into the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s, no one really expected the outcomes we see today. There is no simple disengagement path, given the scope of economic and legal entanglements. This isn’t a “trade” we can simply walk away from. But it is also one that, if allowed to continue in its current form, could lead to a loss of personal freedom for Western civilization. It really is that much of an existential question.
Central bankers have been the first to recognize that the effectiveness of monetary policy in managing demand and stabilizing economic cycles has reached its limits. The problem is that many politicians and academic economists remain in denial.
EAFE stocks, those in the developed Europe and Asia regions, have underperformed US stocks in eight of the last eleven years. That batting average might be decent if you are a professional baseball player, but not so much if you are a professional investor.
We focus on fundamentals such as moving averages and standard deviation. We follow leading indicators such as the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) and consumer confidence index. These factors are many times more effective than the headline news at shining a light on the right path.
But surely, we can work a trade deal? One that protects intellectual property and opens up the Chinese market to American companies? That seems to be the narrative that markets are looking for. But it may not be the narrative we get…
A trade deal is expected when Presidents Trump and Xi meet in November, but even if the talks fail, Sinology explains why China can mitigate the impact and maintain the world’s best consumer story.
In Part II, we discuss the reasons for the breakdown of the order prior to President Trump and follow this discussion with the impact of the current president. We project the likely actions of the nations in the region and, as always, conclude with market ramifications.
In past reports we have discussed America’s evolving hegemony, noting that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism which united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role.
Reflecting on his more than six decades as an asset manager, Dan Fuss says that climate change is now the greatest challenge facing society and the markets.
Headline inflation resulting from a food price shock can never be ignored fully.
I remain bullish going forward despite signs that the world could be facing its worst economic slowdown since the financial crisis. The reason for my bullishness is simple: Bad news is good news.
Chinese equities were flat in September. A-shares posted slight gains while small caps posted slight losses.
The US and China surprised me with their announcement of a small, “phase one” trade deal last week. I had thought any kind of deal would be a long shot, so I view this development as good news. Here’s a summary of the deal and what could happen next.
As the world transitions to a future with greater power demand, investors have the ability to capitalize on this future energy story. At Tortoise, we believe The Teal Energy Deal is the fastest, least expensive and most realistic way to reduce global carbon emissions.
Volatility has resurfaced due to a revival in trade tensions, heated political fighting in Washington, and confusion over whether the Fed will continue to ease or hold off on rate cuts later this month. Stocks have dropped back into a tight range and have still yet to breach their all-time highs. With the market still highly reactionary to major headlines and struggling to find its footing, we continue to recommend that investors stay near their long-term asset allocation. We also continue to recommend using volatility as a means of rebalancing; and maintaining a bias toward large-cap stocks at the expense of small caps. So long as myriad uncertainties continue to mount, we believe stocks will remain under some pressure and headway will be limited.
Tourism has traditionally helped peace and understanding spread across borders, and we’re hopeful that it will do the same today. It’s also good for commerce, especially for airlines and the travel industry in general.
Despite the severity of the climate-change crisis, much of the debate in advanced economies is entirely inward-looking, without recognizing that the real growth in carbon dioxide emissions is coming from emerging Asia. In fact, Asia already accounts for a higher share of global emissions than the United States and Europe combined.
Welcome to the 8th annual review of the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income asset class. Using new data from Bank of International Settlements and other sources, we establish that the EM bond market had grown to a size of USD 26.5trn, or 23% of global fixed income at the end of 2018.
In Part II, we explain why Japanese-Korean hostilities have suddenly broken out into the open again and conclude by discussing the implications of the dispute for the countries’ economies and for investors.
In the past three years, oil and gas discoveries made by conventional means have fallen to an incredible seven-decade low. What’s more, a “significant rebound is not expected,” says IHS Markit. Find out what’s driving discoveries lower!
The fourth quarter of 2019 kicked off with a market selloff and more evidence that a protectionist push is hitting the U.S. industrial sector. How are our asset views faring this year to date–and what are the key themes we see shaping markets in the months ahead?
As Asia’s private sector uses capital and labor more efficiently, economic growth rises.
While global investors continue to feel the repercussions of U.S–China trade tensions, China boasts a vibrant, entrepreneurial economy, creating opportunities for investors with a long-term view. Despite market volatility, China remains the world’s best consumer story, represents the world’s second largest economy and has been the key driver of global economic growth for a decade.
Please join Matthews Asia Portfolio Strategist Jeremy Murden along with Portfolio Managers Winnie Chwang and S. Joyce Li, CFA, for an interactive discussion on:
The press has been reporting on a trade spat between Japan and South Korea, ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup to World War II. The dispute is only the latest chapter in a long history of conflict between Korea and Japan.
With $13 trillion of investment grade corporate and government bonds having negative yields, fixed income investors are increasingly looking at higher yielding emerging market debt.
While U.S. stocks emerged out of their tight range a couple weeks ago, they have yet to surpass their July highs—as trade uncertainties remain, economic data continues to be mixed, and cloudy monetary policy and political outlooks persist.
I'll drill down into who are the world’s wealthiest people, where they live, where they went to school and other characteristics.
History shows that presidential impeachments have had minimal impact on markets. We believe there are bigger risks to consider, including a potential German recession and record global debt. Against this background, gold can help improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.
Despite the US-China trade war, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Sukumar Rajah doesn’t think the opportunity set for emerging markets is lost. He explains how a saturated smartphone market could create innovation opportunities in emerging market countries in Asia.
Heading into the fourth quarter, our outlook remains cautious as markets continue to grapple with both trade and Brexit uncertainty.
This year, in Paris, we were excited to participate as an industry expert and to engage with attendees on ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investing in fixed income.
