After market expectations spiked to nearly five interest rate cuts in 2024 based on disappointing labor market report early in the month, reassuring data in the form of Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims have quelled market Markets have eased expectations for interest rate cuts, pricing closer to four cuts as of the end of last week.
Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
Value has been in a protracted slump versus growth for years, but it’s been undergoing something of a makeover during that time.
If rising layoffs and weakening consumption are going to snowball into a US recession at some point, my interpretation is that the mass of macroeconomic ice crystals is still only about the size of a marble.
Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
Baby Boomers likely won’t have time to recover from the next crash. Their loss is also their heirs’ loss. There’s $70 trillion in play. Baby boomers shouldn’t be greater fools.
Friday’s jobs report has put a damper on economic sentiment for the moment. But much hype has been made about the so-called “Great Rotation.”
Andy Rothman provides four reasons why he’s stubbornly convinced that Xi Jinping will eventually overcome his stubbornness and make the changes necessary to put China back on track to reach its potential growth rate.
Turmoil in the markets has renewed fears that the US did not escape history after all, that a hard landing — a recession — is coming. Whether this is all a blip from a rising yen or a justified reaction to an actual weakening of the US economy is still unknowable.
During each speculative run-up in asset prices – whether the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, or more recently the rapid rise (and fall) of the stocks of electric vehicle companies – there’s typically a moment when Wall Street strategists, analysts, and investors go all-in on that theme.
Recent macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, along with shifting AI sentiment, have raised concerns over whether strong headline returns, low volatility, and persistent mega cap tech leadership can continue as we look ahead.
The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.
Never before in my history studying the Federal Reserve (Fed) has the Fed’s policy come into question immediately following the Fed decision.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta International Equity ETF (GSIE) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
This article examines both breaches at AT&T, discusses how the data can be used to perpetrate detailed deep fakes, and shares how you can advise your clients and staff to protect your clients’ investments.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, and while former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, the wind has certainly shifted in Harris’s favor.
The Momentum factor picked up where it left off at the end of the first quarter, turning in another standout performance in the April-through-June timeframe and ending the second quarter as the factor most relevant to positive performance.
As we approach the end of the fiscal year, investors should be focusing on the Treasury General Account as one factor of many that may impact global liquidity, and in turn, market performance in the coming two quarters.
The small cap rally has primarily been a de-risking event. It's unclear at this point whether it’s just a blip or the beginning of a new trend in market leadership.
It's been another strong first half for the U.S. ETF industry, with overall flows set to challenge or surpass historic records.
The second quarter began with inflation concerns causing a negative return in April, but improved inflation led to a more hopeful market in May and June, with AI and semiconductor stocks leading.
Qraft Technologies took AI-driven investment products to the next level with the launch of the LG-QRAFT AI-Powered U.S. Large Cap Core ETF (LQAI) in November of 2023. The firm partnered with LG AI Research, an artificial intelligence (AI) research hub of South Korea's LG Group, to create LQAI.
Investors flocked to the US Treasury’s monthly sale of two-year notes in a powerful demonstration of faith in Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts beginning this year.
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
Warren Buffett's continued focus on US industrials reflects their strong economic moat, high profitability, and attractive valuations, aligning with his value investing principles and offering substantial growth potential. Macro tailwinds make the opportunity especially compelling.
The stock market is not a balloon that gets bigger when money “flows into” it. It doesn’t get smaller because money “flows out” of it. Holding the number of shares constant, the stock market gets bigger if investors pay a higher price for those shares. Period.
Explaining Strong Returns in the Face of Value Headwinds.
It's important to understand the true meaning behind the names of investment funds, especially when it comes to those labeled "tax-managed"
Elections have been anything but easy for investors. What has been easy is financial conditions in the US relative to the level of policy rates, fostering the debate over the degree of policy restrictiveness as global monetary easing begins.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin and Regional Director Chris Kalman discussed the highlights from June’s U.S. inflation report.
Many people want the passive income that can come with rental properties, but they come with risks and responsibilities.
Heading into the second half of 2024, it appears the markets are no longer focusing on the odds for a recession.
As we survey the economic landscape, we are reminded of Otis Redding’s classic hit, which is all about patience. “Looks like nothing’s gonna change, everything still remains the same.”
I have been looking forward to writing this blog for a long time. I joined Russell Investments on July 12, 2004 and now that it is my 20th anniversary, I feel it’s the right moment to share some of what I have learned along the way.
After a fruitful career and plenty of practice paying taxes, you may feel prepared for the tax man in retirement. But a review of your post-retirement taxable income may yield some surprising insights.
The boom in portfolio trading is starting to creep into the market for state and local government debt.
Join the experts at Goldman Sachs Asset Management for a free educational webcast on ActiveBeta – a factor based approach to investing.
A strategic alignment within the workplace is an opportunity for financial advisors, employers and retirement savers seeking financial planning advice. See Kevin Murphy’s views on emerging trends in workplace savings.
Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.
I love questions like this one – the chance to think creatively and brainstorm “what could be” without the stress of having to do something right now. I have some suggestions to start thinking about what you could do when you have more latitude and less financial responsibility.
While the temperatures were rising, the U.S. stock market continued its climb higher as well. The S&P 500 returned 3.5% and Emerging Market stocks delivered an impressive 3.9%. Bonds also returned positively in June.
Implementing the net wealth mindset in practice involves developing detailed financial plans that align with each client's needs and priorities, and crafting a client-centered service model.
