Following the surprising election of Donald Trump and the news that Republicans had held on to the House and Senate, the stock market rallied.
With low interest rates across global markets, a number of investors are turning to credit assets to enhance returns.
Back in September we explained how US treasury yields were at parity with foreign government bonds for many foreign investors (namely euro and yen-based investors) from a currency hedged basis.
The outcome of the national election does not change our view on the trajectory of the economy for the next four to six quarters.
After an initial surge in the hours after Donald Trump’s election, the price of gold has been under pressure. To gauge what’s ahead for the yellow metal, we dissect the forces that may be at play.
In July, fund managers' had their highest exposure to bonds in 3-1/2 years. In other words, they expected yields to keep falling.
Jeffrey Gundlach was the only prominent financial professional to predict Donald Trump’s victory. Yesterday, he revealed how he made that call.
Needless to say, the surprise victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election has changed the economic outlook on many fronts.
Many political pundits are struggling to provide answers for Donald Trump's surprising election victory. Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist at Allianz Global Investors, however, says it may be as simple as an over-reliance on monetary policy, which has resulted in income as well as asset inequality.
The US election results bring short-term uncertainty, but policy will be key in the medium term
It’s been really busy as of late to cover all of the topics I have wanted to address. One topic, in particular, is the bond market and the ongoing concerns of a “bond bubble” due to historically low interest rates...
Negative and near-zero interest rates show central banks’ desperation to avoid deflation. More important, they highlight the bleak state of the global economy.
If you net out all the assets and liabilities in an economy, you’ll find that the nation’s accumulated stock of real investment is the only thing that remains.
There is some important data on the schedule for this week, along with earnings and the expected doses of FedSpeak. None of that will attract much attention. Instead expect “all Trump, all the time”.
The election is over but some uncertainty remains, which means bouts of volatility are likely to persist. The Fed is likely to hike rates in December but uncertainty about the path of rates in 2017 will persist. Additional uncertainty may come from elections around the world, with the potential for a continuation of surprising outcomes that could rattle markets at times.
Like their British counterparts, who voted in June to cut ties with the European Union (EU), American voters resoundingly rejected globalism this week, calling into question the United States’ involvement in military alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—which is 72 percent funded by U.S. tax dollars--and international trade deals, from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Trump’s victory may be a positive for the US economy, but the wild car is Trump’s stance on free trade. Trump’s policy proposals for lower regulation and lower taxes could be highly stimulative to the US economy. The biggest uncertainty for future economic growth relate to his trade policy and whether Congress will be able to temper the more extreme aspects of his proposals.
The November 2016 U.S. elections may go down in history as among the most unconventional, leaving many investors wondering about the investment implications.
Franklin Templeton's Asian and European trading desk teams evaluate the aftermath of the US election in a special edition of Notes from the Trading Desk.
As the election results were confirmed late Tuesday night in the United States (around midday Wednesday in Asia), there was a pretty violent reaction in many markets and across asset classes and regions. Michael Hasenstab, CIO of Templeton Global Macro, opines on the drivers and meaning of today’s market twists and turns.
The transition to a Republican presidency and Trump’s rejection of politics as usual, which drew so many voters, naturally lead to questions about his impact on the economy and markets. Today on our blog we provide a high level overview of our thoughts of the significance of a Trump presidency.
Donald Trump's presidential upset has stunned financial markets, which had heavily discounted a Clinton victory. What might Trump's policy proposals mean for markets and key components of the US economy going forward?
A review of the month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Speaking before the results of the presidential election were known, Jeffrey Gundlach commended Donald Trump for his campaign and the results he achieved. Gundlach did not, however, reiterate his prediction that Trump would win and, as in the past, he neither endorsed Trump nor said that he would vote for him.
Gold has rallied recently with the return of political uncertainty. But Russ points to another factor that suggests the gains can continue: inflation.
GMO Quarterly Letter from Ben Inker and Jeremy Grantham
Last week saw a clear risk-off trend, as U.S. political uncertainty rose in advance of this week’s elections.
John West is a managing director and head of client strategies for Research Affiliates. In this interview, he discusses what assumptions advisors should use for capital-market returns over the next decade.
A wave of positive economic data suggests the Chinese economy is stabilizing and that business confidence is improving. The country’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which measures the health of its manufacturing industry, rose to 51.2 in October, handily beating economists’ estimates of 50.3.
Benjamin Graham famously said that “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” But this is not quite correct.
Regular readers are aware of our research showing that the Knowledge Effect is really a “super factor”.
When the presidential election is over, investors can focus on what is going on in the world economy and what future investment opportunities are lurking out there.
It’s Halloween, so what else could we do but write about what might scare the markets?
Have you ever wondered why global markets have been so calm since the volatile first quarter? Well, the halt in the U.S. dollar’s appreciation played a major role.
Voters in a democracy often respond more to perception than reality, particularly when it comes to issues of patriotism, pride and identity. It isn’t always just about the bottom line.
This piece brings together all the Private Wealth Management research teams on a topic of common interest and current importance.
While we spend time analyzing each of our individual positions and holdings, when it comes to portfolio management, the whole is very much more than simply the sum of its parts.
Closed-end funds may offer attractive income potential to long-term investors searching for yield, says Jon Diorio of BlackRock.
My continued impression is that the global equity markets broadly peaked in the second-quarter of 2015, and that the more recent marginal U.S. highs in August were a “throwover” in response to the post-Brexit plunge in global interest rates.
The last two OMR’s have talked about the long-term debt. I believe it is the significant headwind we face. As CMG’s Brian Schreiner said to me this week, “The math doesn’t allow for a soft landing.” Read on and please let me know what you think.
Investors have become very concerned about excessive debt in the US. The worry is that current leverage has risen so rapidly and become so extreme that the economy is at imminent risk of a crisis. Is this concern valid?
Since the Conservative Party Conference earlier this month, UK asset markets have become increasingly sensitive to the UK’s prospective trading arrangements post Brexit.
Still think emerging markets are too risky? Think again. Smarter policies are leading to less vulnerable economies and rising currencies. For investors who need to wring more income from their bond portfolios, it’s time for a fresh look.
Since the summer of 2015 the long gold, long 10-year US treasury trade bonds has basically been one in the same (silver and treasury bonds have moved in tandem as well).
Portfolio Manager Charlie Dreifus explains the Fed's conundrum, why there's too much hesitation in the market and economy, and the challenges to subsequent growth.
At the three-quarter pole, the global economy is muddling through a disappointing 2016. Growth in developed and emerging markets continues, but at a pace that has fallen short of expectations.
Low interest rates should not affect whether a pension plan chooses to pursue an LDI strategy, but they may change how that strategy is implemented.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2016, the U.S. budget deficit jumped to $590 billion, compared with $438 billion in the prior fiscal year. However, over the same time period the change in total gross federal debt surged upward by $1.4 trillion, more than twice the annual budget deficit measure.
The purpose of this article is to make the case for a primary trend rise in yields. If this assumption turns out to be correct, it is within the realm of possibilities that this same rally may also be a turn in the tide for the initial advance in a new, very long-term or secular uptrend.
The Fed will raise rates in December, as long as the election goes as expected and there are no surprises in the economic data, according to Rick Rieder. But, according to Rieder there are secular influences in the economy that are much more important than monetary policy.
