Whatever you’ve been told about your retirement, odds are that it’s wrong. Saving enough for your retirement, and investing the right way, are truly among the hardest of all financial problems. In many ways, it’s more difficult than running a large endowment or hedge fund — and yet we all must do it.
Albert Edwards, Societe Generale SA's chief global strategist, hasn't been the top-ranked Extel survey macro analyst for the past 20 years because he's an optimist.
Very early this year our economics team got a pleasant surprise: Consensus Economics, which collects forecasts from roughly 200 economists around the world, rated us the most accurate forecasters of the United States for 2022, based on our forecasts for GDP and CPI. Unfortunately, we don’t expect a repeat award for 2023.
Great articles don’t always get the readership they deserve. We’ve posted the 10 most-widely read investment and planning articles for the past year here and the top practice management articles here. Below are another 10 that you might have missed, but I believe merit reading.
Home prices in the US rose for a ninth straight month, reaching a fresh record as buyers battled for a stubbornly tight supply of listings.
Last year at this time, 85% of economists in one poll predicted a recession this year — and that was an optimistic take compared to the 100% probability of a recession forecast two months earlier.
“I believe the overall market will be up 10% to 15% from today's level by the end of 2024,” said Jeremy Siegel in our annual interview.
The market has been indecisive but with reason. 2023 has been filled with strong opinions however, many of the opinions are of contrasting beliefs. Reading the future is not easy.
Equity markets are on track for a strong finish to the year, powered by mega-cap growth stocks — the equity MVPs of 2023.
Bond markets expect more cuts than the Fed is signaling, and this expectation largely reflects a return to pre-COVID dynamics of low inflation, massive central bank support, and suppressed term premia.
While 2022 was a brutal year for bonds, fixed income enjoyed many tailwinds this year, from high interest rates to lowered inflation to a less volatile economy. This made 2023 the year for fixed income. And in particular, it was a good year for Vanguard.
As European inflation rates converge with targets, markets expect rate cuts. But central banks are set on a decisive victory over inflation.
Cevian Capital AB’s $1.3 billion bet on UBS Group AG is unusual in more ways than one. The Stockholm-based investment firm is typically a quiet activist, working behind the scenes to steer management thinking. This time it’s being very public about what looks like a straightforward value play.
A small cadre of Wall Street economists who’ve been surprised by the economy’s resilience in 2023 are doubling down on expecting pain for American households and businesses in the new year.
Will Beijing take the necessary steps to restore confidence in its economic policies? Sinology explores.
There are material short- and long-term implications for hydrocarbon markets following the COP28 meeting in Dubai, including tailwinds to oil.
Even before the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, the mere anticipation of such moves is already thawing the US housing market.
The economics team shares a few things that have been on our minds.
Investors are warming to opportunities stemming from climate change, and other takeaways from COP28.
Over the past month and the past 90 days, the Russell 2000 Index is higher by 12.07% and 8.49%, respectively. What’s notable about those periods is that they include increased chatter that the Federal Reserve could be positioning for multiple interest rate cuts in 2024.
The Federal Reserve was supposed to leave center stage by the end of the year and let other factors play the leading role in determining asset prices in the advanced world and beyond. Instead, it has written itself an encore act that’s full of confusion.
Municipal bonds posted their best performance of the year, and we believe municipal credit conditions remain strong.
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read investment and planning articles over the past 12 months. Tomorrow, we will highlight the 10 most-read practice management articles.
GMO has published a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast
Treasuries rallied along with global bonds, sending benchmark yields to multi-month lows, as traders bet the world is entering a new, disinflationary period by wagering on more interest-rate cuts next year.
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2023.
Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.
The cornerstone of diversification is the allocation of investments to counterbalance losses and dampen volatility. But what happens when traditional assets, like stocks and bonds, move in lockstep as they are now?
The “addiction to prediction” can have detrimental effects, as it shifts focus from the financial health of companies to baseless forecasting, often leaving investors vulnerable to market volatilities.
A profit warning in the week leading up to Christmas is never a good look. This year’s shock has been provided by Superdry Plc. With just a few shopping days to go until the holiday, investors should be braced for more bad news from other retailers.
A stellar year on Wall Street is propelling the biggest rally since 2019 in the MSCI World Index of developed-market equities, pushing the gauge closer to its record high and leaving emerging-market peers trailing far behind.
This year’s run-up in technology stocks, and particularly chipmakers, has left many with price tags so lofty it may seem like now is the time for firms to split their shares.
In the same way that a swimmer can make the biggest splash by jumping off of a higher diving board, so too fixed income asset returns can appear prospectively most attractive after a prolonged back up in rates.
Over the last few months, we have highlighted that the Fed should be done with its tightening cycle based on real-time, high-frequency data that suggested that economic growth and inflation were cooling.
What is the “wealth effect,” and why is it important? It is a great question and reminded me of “A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Colosseum.“
As 2023 draws to a close, what will 2024 have in store for investors? It appears this Fed rate hike cycle is over and now we pivot to potential rate cuts. But not until inflation has sufficiently cooled. As we've seen before, a lot can happen in the meantime.
Our 2024 Economic & Market Outlook covers:
There are many risks for 2024 including those that are an ever-present part of investing and not unique to the outlook for any particular year. We've highlighted our top five.
We are shrugging off geopolitical risks. Not only the latest war in Israel, but Russia and Ukraine. The market is still pricing in some Fed cuts next year.
The US Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, are betting that they can have the best of both worlds — that they’ll be able to defeat excessive inflation without forcing the economy into recession.
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in March are likely too early.
For multi-asset income investors, adapting portfolios for equity defense, credit potential and duration exposure should be on the docket for 2024.
Markets cheered a “dovish” December Federal Reserve meeting, seen as an early gift to investors. But has the battle against inflation been won? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai weighs in.
November’s inflation numbers delivered good news for the Federal Reserve (Fed) even though the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher than what markets were expecting, with shelter costs surprising to the upside.
While fixed COLAs with SPIAs may seem like an attractive way to address inflation in retirement, they actually increase inflation risk, not reduce it.
Sometimes the real action is in the dog that didn’t bark. What is striking about the European Union’s pending regulations on artificial intelligence is what’s missing: There is no ban on open-source AI.
Investors were pleased about the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement — perhaps a touch more so than Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues might wish.
We analyze a case study for a wealthier couple with $5.5 million in investment assets and a larger retirement spending goal.
The financial world is moving fast, as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting interest rates and stock indexes are at or near all-time highs.
Just one month after setting a 2024 target for the S&P 500, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists increased their forecast as the year-end rally shows no signs of abating.
A vehicle used to track longer-dated US government bonds surged into a bull market, as investors seek to end three years of pain on the Federal Reserve’s willingness to consider interest-rate cuts.
