At GMO we have spent the last four decades taking a long-horizon approach to equity investing. Over time, a unique and reliable group of standout companies emerged from our research.
Bill Bernstein digs into a book that follows the complicated history of Elon Musk's chaotic acquisition of Twitter and its subsequent transformation into X.
In his 2022 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, Warren Buffett wrote that in his 80 years of investing, he had “yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America.”
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
The most common questions we’ve been asked as the election approaches are generally about the Federal debt and deficits. Many investors worry about a looming “day of reckoning” for US debt. They fear the US’s fiscal imprudence will eventually force a sudden and dramatic repricing of US debt. In this insight, we explore the modern history of US debt to GDP across several Presidential administrations and outline why investors should not be worried about a financial apocalyptic abyss.
While the overall market tends to respond favorably once the uncertainty of the election is behind us, it's important to recognize that there will be different winners and losers depending on the outcome.
Talking and exchanging communication with advisors and clients over the last several years has shown that many of them are concerned about the fiscal path of this country and the consequences it is having on our debt.
Many investors today use EM debt for the wrong reasons, manage it imprudently, or overlook the best parts.
Tighter fiscal policy in Europe and China may hinder the economic response to easing monetary policy, with a resulting shift in investors' focus.
From current data, it is clear there are no signs the U.S. economy is currently facing challenges.
When inflation begins to upend financial markets, as it has over the past few years, it represents a tremendous disruption.
With over 36,000 metric tons in reserves—about one-fifth of all the gold ever mined—central banks know something we should too: Gold is the ultimate safety net.
In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.
Should China deliver sufficient stimulus to break the cycle of tightening fiscal policy, we may find China, and emerging markets, investable again.
The puck has certainly moved since our last market commentary. This month, we argue that the needle on portfolio construction should move with it. Equities have been the driver of returns for much of the last few years.
The jobs report closed last week with robust read outs of an official number that beat economist expectations. Below the surface, however, hours worked fell to levels often associated with recessions. This juxtaposition of more workers clocking fewer hours suggests that while employment figures are up, the quantity of work didn’t expand much.
Just like road trips can bring unexpected detours, the economy and financial markets are at their own crossroads: recession or soft landing?
CLOs have delivered the most attractive risk-adjusted returns in fixed income over the past decade, but are often deemed 'too complex.'
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Gold is what you buy when everything isn’t goldilocks. Inflation, deflation, war, pestilence — gold is a certain anxious state of mind made tangible in a seductive but mostly useless metal. In a weird spin, gold has been enjoying a goldilocks period itself, hitting a new record last week. More that that, it seems almost immune to things that would usually drag it down.
Policy, more likely to be dictated by economic circumstances, may not resemble generous populist proposals, which could limit their impact on stock markets.
On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 4.75% to 5%. This move, aimed at managing inflationary pressures while addressing the gradual rise in unemployment, underscores the Fed’s balancing act between fostering economic growth and taming inflation.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the Federal funds rate, as expected, announcing at the same time that the Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet. In my view, both of these decisions were appropriate. The Fed reduced short-term rates by 50 basis points, which was consistent with economic conditions that remain near the threshold of recession.
Corporate tax rate policy is a routine hot-button issue during every presidential election cycle, and this year’s campaign is no different.
Since mid-2022, when the Federal Reserve was in the midst of its aggressive hiking cycle, investors piled over $1.6 trillion into money market funds, which include Treasury bills.
For years, the U.S. has been the dominant player in military spending, with American companies like Lockheed Martin and RTX (formerly Raytheon) commanding the global arms market. But now, Europe—specifically its arms manufacturers—may be the next big opportunity for savvy investors.
From "how" to "why now," here are four things investors should understand about bond investing.
While the beach version of SoCal has had an epic, non-marine layer summer, it seems to have been enjoyed by few locals who instead violate the cardinal rule of adult life without children living at home and nevertheless travel to Europe in summer. We haven’t missed you.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates at its September meeting. Market performance may depend on whether the pace of cuts is fast or slow.
As we move into the final stretch of 2024, many investors may be asking themselves: Is it time to give airline stocks another look? According to a new report from Bank of America (BofA), the answer might very well be yes
States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.
On the back of recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, and moderating inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) looks set to begin its rate-cutting cycle at its September meeting.
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
Watch the video above to get specific recommendations for how to think about a website revamp as a financial advisor, and when to redirect your attention to other initiatives.
A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.
One of the last remaining bright spots for Chinese consumption is rapidly fading, as the nation’s economic malaise takes a toll on demand for even the most accessible of goods.
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.
Are we going to have a recession? Are we already in a recession?
Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.
Oil, copper, soybeans and a handful of others monopolized the attention — but of all commodities, the humble lump of iron ore benefited the most from the Chinese economic boom of the last 25 years.
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
The current economic landscape is fraught with uncertainty, and the potential for higher inflation continues to pose a real threat to market stability.
