Emerging-market bulls who’ve benefited from moderating U.S. Treasury yields are bracing for a relapse as political risks pile up.
John Vail of Nikko Asset Management dives into the findings from Nikko’s latest Global Investment Committee meeting.
How do we preserve and grow our client's wealth at inflation-adjusted rates, consistent with long-term returns of the requisite asset class, and to do so without taking undue risk of a permanent loss of capital?
How many bad/failed companies are being carried by the forbearance of their private and public creditors and emergency injections of cash from government?
There has been an explosion in academic research on the impact of implementing ESG on the risk and returns of equity portfolios. Research on fixed income, which has received less attention, shows that positive ESG scores correlate with lower yield spreads, decreasing future returns for bond investors.
Digital currencies stormed Wall Street in a big way this week. Crypto exchange Coinbase went public in a direct listing, opening the floodgates for a number of other crypto-related companies.
Right now, the stock market is in the land-where-there-should-be-sea phase. What we don’t know is when the wave is coming. Maybe there’s time to venture out and see what treasure was hidden beneath the waves... or maybe not. Prudence would suggest that we go searching for treasure on higher ground.
On April 21 the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada (BoC) will meet to discuss monetary policy.
We begin with what we hope will be our final substantive COVID update. The vaccines have arrived and are going into people’s arms at an accelerating pace.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for global growth in this year of reopening.
With equity markets continuing to hit new records, the arguments for further upside versus an imminent pullback are intensifying. What direction market go will still be driven by Covid, but not for long.
Lost in the debate over whether today's ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies will trigger painful inflation is the broader risk posed by potential negative supply shocks.
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
Bond traders searching for an opportunity to challenge central banks are starting to look Down Under, where a likely showdown over yield-curve control is set to test the power of policy makers to contain the next wave of reflation bets.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 80% since March 23, 2020 (COVID bottom). The economic recovery is in full swing, and between stimulus checks, warm weather, and widespread vaccinations recovery momentum is likely to surge this summer, although downside volatility is intensifying.
As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.
It isn’t hard these days to find investors trumpeting the demise of the decades-long bull run in Treasuries.
From 1949 through 1964, the S&P 500 enjoyed an average annual total return of 16.4%. In the 8 years that followed, through 1972, the total return of the index averaged a substantially lower 7.6% annually; strikingly close to the 7.5% projection that Graham had suggested based on prevailing valuations, yet still providing what Graham had suggested would likely “carry a fair degree of protection” against inflation, which averaged 3.9% over that period.
Another round of stimulus totaling $1.9 trillion is making its way through the US economy, with hopes it will trigger a sharp rebound from the ravages of COVID-19.
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
Yes, the housing market is a bit overheated, but for reasons that make far more sense than the rationalizations of stock market bulls. Some buyers are certainly overpaying and may regret it. Nonetheless, I don’t foresee another 2008-style housing crash in the near future, nor anything like the subprime crisis. There are altogether different fundamentals working here.
Floating-rate notes can help lower a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rate changes, but they aren’t necessarily the secret weapon to combat a rising-rate environment.
As a backdrop, we’ll bring a bit of scientific language to our analysis this quarter as we celebrate the amazing feats of our scientific brothers and sisters.
A year ago, the U.S. registered its deepest economic contraction since the Second World War.
Green funds have gained a reputation of benefiting from the tech rally during the pandemic. As the economy recovers and investors shift to cheaper stocks, those products might still be able to thrive.
In 1974, U.S. President Gerald Ford took office “amidst one of the worst economic crises in U.S. history,” which was characterized by double digit inflation.
A boost in pizza prices in the U.S. may be on the horizon, if weather and planting estimates are any indication.
Global stocks rose in the first quarter, but volatile trading patterns reminded investors that the road to normal will be bumpy.
Given a potential inflationary environment, we have taken great care to emphasize companies that we believe have pricing power because of the mission-critical or value-add nature of their products and services.
To get an idea of what Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve will do next, Wall Street economists are having to try their hand at forecasting new variables -- like the Black unemployment rate.
A fresh spike in Treasury yields will rattle markets and could send more family offices and hedge funds down a similar path to Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management, according to Nouriel Roubini.
As Shakespeare might put it, “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” is perhaps an apt way to describe the character of the market so far this year.
Today’s market environment taps into bond investors’ primal fears.
I’ve spent more time explaining bonds to clients than stocks, mostly overcoming eight great misconceptions about fixed income.
The acceptance of digital currencies as a form of payment expanded greatly this week, foreshadowing the increasingly important role cryptos such as Bitcoin and Ether will play in our lives going forward.
After a blowout 2020 for corporate debt, exchange-traded fund investors are quickly souring on those bonds.
You know society is in trouble when the Prime Minister of your country stands up and says something along the lines of “of course we can afford to take on more debt – you are old-fashioned if you think otherwise”.
Within days of each other in March two Northeast Ohio legends passed away: Michael Stanley and Joe Tait.
Everyone’s excited about the prospects for a sharp economic recovery as increasing numbers of Americans get their Covid-19 vaccinations. Well, almost everyone -- holders of U.S. Treasuries have serious reasons for concern.
Policymakers in major economies have pointed to 2023 as the date the stimulus payback may begin.
The U.S. economic reopening trade is back in full force, sending 10-year Treasury yields up to 1.77% for the first time since January 2020.
Last week I posted the video “10 Dividend Growth Stocks To Beat The Market” In that video I was primarily focused on investing in faster growing attractively valued dividend growth stocks for high total return and potential market beating returns.
With a broad-based economic reopening coming closer into focus, investors are planning for the next stage in the cycle.
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
Addressing technical, idiosyncratic and structural aspects of inflation.
The summer months tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.
A recent survey showed that only 28% of RIAs are using annuities for clients near or in retirement. But 68% said they would consider them, foretelling a dramatic increase in the coming years.
My question, as always, is whether we’re measuring inflation accurately. What if we’re doing it all wrong? As investors, we want to make decisions based on the best available data, so what should we do if the data is incomplete or flawed?
There are many detractors that believe that dividend growth stock investing is stodgy, old and boring.
A word of warning for all those bond traders banking on a Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as next year: Since 2008, markets have underestimated how patient officials can be in lifting borrowing costs from zero.
