Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

Survey after survey has been indicating that Americans feel worse off today compared to the recent past; so much so that many of them indicate the economy is currently in recession, that the rate of unemployment is the highest in several decades, that inflation is very high today, etc.

Portfolio Manager John Lloyd discusses two important considerations for investors who feel like they may have missed the market rally.

After relentlessly pursuing $100-a-barrel oil, the OPEC+ cartel has all but thrown in the towel. Whether the U-turn is a tactical retreat, or a strategic shift, is still unclear. But for now its impact would be the same: Oil prices would be somewhat lower and global inflation would ease.

The people who experience the US economy continue to disagree with the people who measure it, and the most likely reason is inflation: Most Americans still see it as a major problem, while most economists don’t. But this debate recently veered from economics to semantics.

Corporate greed is not causing inflation, despite the claims of many on the political left who failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand.

Data is important but not everything. Perceptions matter, too. Today we’ll look at how people feel inflation and what it may mean in the years to come.

Few investments pay off as well as time spent pursuing financial history – to paraphrase George Santayana only slightly: study the past in order to prevent it from picking your pockets.

David Dali, Head of Portfolio Strategy, provides his 12-month outlook for global equity markets.

When it comes to investing in consumer debt, headlines may be misleading. We see opportunity.

US government bonds rallied Friday, adding to their monthly gain, after benign inflation data kept alive predictions that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once this year.

Inflation may not return to the US central bank’s 2% target until mid-2027, according to research from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

When people think about the Federal Reserve and interest rates in 2024, one common view is that economic growth and inflation remain too hot to justify rate cuts. Another is that the labor market and inflation continue to cool, and it will soon be time for rate cuts.

Three key reasons why investors should consider allocating capital to private credit for substantial and differentiated returns.

Companies going bust, mounting credit card debt, higher mortgage bills.

Predicting Fed rate changes may be an inexact exercise, but understanding how the tools that do track it work can help investors weather uncertain markets.

Global bond investors are coming to terms with the likelihood that interest rates are going to stay high for the foreseeable future.

The Federal Open Market Committee is always data-dependent. But the dependency is not always the same. There are times when inflation matters more than the labor market, and times when the situation is reversed. Every regime is unique. There is never a perfect corollary to a previous experience. This time is not different.

While rules-based monetary policy thrived when globalization put downward pressure on inflation, the COVID-19 pandemic has revived central bankers’ long-dormant preference for inflationary policies. This shift may help central banks maintain their independence, but it also increases the likelihood of another surge of price growth.

To a large and under-appreciated extent, the job of the US Federal Reserve entails chasing an elusive number: r*, or the neutral short-term interest rate. When the Fed’s target rate is above r*, it should restrict growth. When it’s below, it should stimulate economic activity.

Home equity lending does not require policy support.

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09, fixed income investors have suffered the worst of both worlds. For a dozen years they endured the stingiest of yields on their fixed income holdings.

The highlight of last week was a showdown between two of the major forces in the markets: AI earnings vs. economic data.

Treasuries pared this week’s sharp losses Thursday after inflation gauges in the US first-quarter economic growth data were unexpectedly revised lower.

The US economy expanded at a “slight or modest” pace across most regions since early April and consumers pushed back against higher prices, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.

In spite of the highest Federal Reserve policy rates in two decades, the US economy grew about 2.5% last year, unemployment remains low and stocks are near all-time highs, leading many observers to conclude that the economy must have become less interest-rate sensitive — and probably needs permanently high benchmark rates to prevent overheating.

As we discussed recently, Wall Street economists increasingly believe the risk of recession has fallen sharply.

As we set our sights on the summer, here are five dynamics that could drive the financial markets between Memorial Day and Labor Day:

Ross Riskin's op-ed examines the potential drawbacks of using glide path portfolios in 529 college savings plans, particularly during high-interest rate environments. He suggests that money market options may offer better capital preservation for funds needed during college enrollment, emphasizing the shift from growth to stability in investment strategies.

When the economy is picking up steam, growth stocks offer the potential to capture market gains. But hallmarks of quality—including sustained earnings growth and sound underlying fundamentals—may help weather economic headwinds.

Potential spot ether and spot bitcoin ETFs share some similarities but foundational cryptocurrency differences matter for investors.

What exactly is a market bubble, and how can investors recognize one?

A surge in issuance of a type of bond that can convert into stock on maturity is helping revive a hedge fund strategy that was crushed during the financial crisis.

Risk of a recession is abating as the capital markets could see interest rate cuts this year with signs of cooling inflation.

With the market seeming to skate by the trap door of extreme valuations and unfavorable internals without consequence, the push to new highs in the past few weeks has created the impression of a runaway advance.

The housing market looks to be on the road to recovery, but not without significant scarring for a considerable portion of potential homeowners.

The big news in the $20 trillion US property market last week was that, for the first time since the financial crisis, investors suffered losses on top-rated bonds backed by the mortgage on an office building.

Economic reports from the past week provided reassurance following the previous week's disappointments. Stay up to date on the current conditions with the latest commentary from Professor Siegel.

Two reports on home prices arrived this morning, one for the Case-Shiller index and another from the FHFA (a government agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Both rose in March, and housing prices are up 6.5% and 6.8%, respectively, in the past year.

We are free trade enthusiasts, in economic terms, even at a time when free trade has been losing some of its aura within the U.S. political system.

Lower interest rates in Europe will favor spending over saving.

New tariffs will renew trade tensions.

Target Corp.’s sales slump last quarter marked the latest example of supposed softening in US consumption, making some stock-market investors jittery that recession could still be in the cards.

I’m fresh off the plane from Las Vegas—and no, I wasn’t hitting the slots, though the city’s Harry Reid International Airport sure hit the jackpot with a record-breaking 57.6 million passengers last year.

European value stocks offer a compelling case for short- and long-term investment opportunities, supported by strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and favorable market conditions.

There is no question that Fed policy remains the primary force driving the money and bond markets for the third year in a row.

Are you underweighting large cap growth? New research suggests that may be the case, inviting investors to consider options like FDG.

As Federal Reserve officials stare down the last mile in their campaign against inflation, one key question is becoming increasingly central to the debate: Will goods prices continue to fall?

One of the best parts of being a young college graduate, and naïve to the grim realities of the working world, is being deluded about how great your career will be. Maybe you’ll found the next Nvidia, or win the Nobel Prize in your field, or start a charity that will make the world a better place.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why rising investment and persistently loose US fiscal policy are simultaneously pushing in the direction of higher long-term real interest rates.