In Part 1 of this forecast I described my relatively benign outlook for the next 12 months. The calm may last into 2021 and even beyond. But beneath the surface, pressure will still be increasing. It will grow slowly, almost imperceptibly, but eventually explode.

On Tuesday of this week, the U.S. dollar experienced a “death cross,” a bearish signal that takes places when an asset’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. We haven’t seen this from the greenback since May 2017.

The best environment would be moderate U.S. growth, a sideways U.S. market and a weaker U.S. dollar.

Four reasons for optimism about emerging-market stocks despite their general underperformance and higher volatility over the last decade.

A year ago, the baseline scenario for the economy was moderate growth, but with an elevated level on uncertainty, with risks skewed to the downside. Trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth were dampening factors, but Fed policy was supportive. Investors were willing to look beyond the uncertainty.

Franklin Equity Group’s Jonathan Curtis explains why he thinks businesses will need to invest significantly more in digital technology in the coming years to better understand and service their customers and to reduce costs.

A few months ago, we published a paper called Institutional investor best practice by 2025. In this paper, we addressed how investors will need to fundamentally change how they approach capturing opportunities, mitigating risks and managing costs within their investment portfolios to set themselves up for success in 2025 and beyond.

To be honest it shouldn’t matter where you stand on the climate change debate, the way I see it these are words that we should all take seriously, if for no other reason just in case. It is a call to action that we ignore at our own peril and that of untold future generations to come.

As long as good economic conditions prevail, significant downside risk in the stock market is likely to be deferred, and the market will likely benefit from its current momentum.

The Ten Surprises of 2019 worked out plenty well. While we don't go through this process with the objective of getting a high score, knowing that you have been able to anticipate some of the generally unexpected events that are going to influence the financial markets during the coming year is gratifying.

It has been a great year for equity investors. The S&P 500 index posted a 31% annual return, the Dow 25%, and the NASDAQ a spectacular 39%. More than $6T of equity paper wealth was created for domestic investors this year alone.

The outlook for the global economy has improved over the past three months, but there may be less capacity to combat a recession when it comes. We discuss seven key macroeconomic themes we expect in 2020 and implications for investors.

Progress on the trade front lifted the markets in Q4 but now comes the hard part.

Seven things to know about the new U.S. retirement legislation.

The longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive month of growth. The first seven years, from mid-2009 through 2016 saw average real GDP growth of 2.2%. Since the start of 2017, US real GDP growth accelerated, to an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, while the unemployment rate now stands at the lowest level in 50 years (and is likely headed lower).

Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in absolute terms and relative to bonds in developed markets as well as under-owned and well-supported by an improving fundamental backdrop.

Welcome to the 2020s. Some weren’t sure we would make it this far, but we did. Now we face a new decade and new challenges. How we handle them will determine what kind of conversation we have in 2030.

I’m optimistic that the U.S. will stand as a beacon of freedom and opportunity in the 2020s and beyond, but with more and more younger Americans supporting socialism over capitalism, I believe it prudent to proceed with caution. That means making sure you’re holding some gold in your portfolio.

What can investors expect this year? Continued economic expansion, unaltered interest rates and new equity highs, says CIO Larry Adam.

Correct these five common advisor marketing mistakes in 2020. Make it your best year ever and stay true to those resolutions.

As we wrap up the decade. it is a good time to review the 7-impossible trading rules to follow in a bull market. These rules are not new, or unique, but they are the foundation of long-term investing success.

A sweeping piece of legislation affecting how individuals save and invest for their retirement, known as the “SECURE Act,” has recently been signed into law. Our investment professionals talk about the implications of the Act, and how it can enhance the retirement security of millions of Americans. And, they outline some changes in the legislation that also affect college savings plans.

The current expansion won't last forever. But we don't see it ending anytime soon.

The Grinch who stole Christmas is alive and well this year – in the U.S. Congress. Our representatives and senators passed a bill that negatively affects the middle and working class by changing the rules of passing an IRA to one’s heirs.

As the year winds to a close, take a look back with us at our top ten favorite blog posts of the year—the thought leadership pieces that sparked the highest levels of engagement among our readers.

The distinguishing factor among elite advisors is their sense of purpose – they don’t just have a job, they view their profession as a calling, and believe that what they do makes a difference in their clients’ lives.

What were the top financial news stories of 2019? To answer that question, Frank looks back at his five most visited articles from the year that was.

Like many financial planners, I hope for the day when we are accorded the same professional stature as lawyers and accountants. But the CFP Board should not be put at the helm of that future profession. That would harm consumers and erode the public trust we have worked so hard to engender.

As we wave goodbye to the bull market of the 2010s, here are the rules for investing in whatever comes in the next decade.

Naturally, this is the time when market-watchers issue their forecasts for what may lie ahead, and my team is no exception. Simply put, we expect continued monetary policy accommodation with little fiscal stimulus. Therefore, we are more optimistic about capital markets than we are about the overall economy, and we favor risk assets over non-risk assets for 2020.

As we move into 2020, we find ourselves in an uncertain place. Economic trends have deteriorated, and growth levels have flatted. Plus, the impeachment process and election could have negative repercussions. Indeed, the risk of recession is real—although its impact may be much milder than many fear.

Boris Johnson’s victory bodes well for Trump in 2020. The British PM’s Conservative party toppled the so-called “red wall,” winning seats across rural, working-class North and Midlands counties that had for decades been considered safe Labour territory.

Rates were unpredictable, central banks were active, trade was volatile but consumers were undaunted. We reflect on the major economic trends of 2019.

There is almost no willingness to face our top problems, specifically our rising debt. The economic challenges we face can’t continue, which is why I expect the Great Reset, a kind of worldwide do-over. It’s not the best choice but we are slowly ruling out all others.

Stock market participants remained optimistic, despite impeachment. The economic data were mixed, but consistent with moderate growth in the overall economy.

Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro Capital Management’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2020 could bring.

The Key to Avoiding Obvious Mistakes Understanding how to value a business is the key to avoiding making obvious mistakes when purchasing or selling common stocks. When you know what your investment is worth, the market cannot take advantage of your gullibility.

Global growth is decelerating. Policy-makers in developed economies are gearing up for yet more fiscal spending. While fiscal spending may support growth for a short time, and for longer if very carefully applied, it will not change the growth outlook fundamentally.

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that contrary to the many year-end outlooks foreseeing either a recession or a rebound in 2020, the most likely path for the economy and markets is more moderate, which can be encapsulated in their theme of “1.8.”

For the last several months we’ve been talking about the distinct possibility of a period of foreign equity outperformance that investors would be remiss to miss.

Once upon a time—of all the good days in the year, on Christmas Eve—old Ebenezer Scrooge sat busy in his counting-house. Rise from your bed, O Investor and hear first from our very own Ghosts of Investing Past, Present and Yet to Come.

While US-China trade tensions and other concerns prompt a cautionary stance when it comes to risk assets, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions’ Ed Perks and Gene Podkaminer nonetheless remain positive about the US equity market in the year ahead, citing a number of long-term growth drivers that still remain in place.

Why the country represents an increasingly attractive opportunity for both domestic and global investors.

The economic calendar is especially important. Several housing reports, JOLTs, and the final estimate for Q3 GDP lead the list. Despite this, I suspect a powerful draw from the Gregorian calendar. It is time for those annual forecasts!

Predicting a major economic or financial event—whether that’s a recession, market downturn or even your own retirement—requires that you also take action. Otherwise your prediction was meaningless.

As widely expected, the Conservative Party emerged victorious in the UK general election. Our Colin Morton anticipates UK equity markets will welcome the outcome, but cautions that some uncertainties remain.

In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

U.S. economic activity is expected to remain mixed in 2020, with moderate strength in consumer spending and general softness in business fixed investment and manufacturing.

In part 2 of this series I focused on how to value slow and moderately growing businesses. In this article, Part 3, I will shift my focus on how to value faster growing companies (growth stocks).