Last week’s top conversations were started by APViewpoint member John Walton and thought leader Michael Edesess, and included comments by thought leaders Wade Pfau, Dirk Cotton and Joe Tomlinson. They generated thoughtful discussions on decumulation planning strategies and whether quantitative strategies are vulnerable to the overfitting of data.

Over the weekend, Sam Fleming with the Financial Times interviewed Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren about why the Fed is likely to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Over the past 35-40 years, the industry and media have told investors to invest passively, or to buy and hold. We believe this approach is flawed and hurting rather than helping people invest successfully. The passive, buy and hold concept was developed in response to the damage inflicted on investors and the mutual fund industry in the 1970s.

Hedge fund returns, like most strategies, are a combination of market risk (beta) and manager specific risk (alpha). Depending on an investor’s goals with a hedge fund investment, high risk-adjusted return or diversification, replicating the hedge fund in order to avoid the detrimental effects of high fees is better than a direct investment.

Many of us were excited to learn that civil rights activist Harriet Tubman will soon be featured on the $20 bill. Unfortunately, for women who work jobs where men earn $20 per hour, they will only be receiving one Hamilton, one Lincoln, and one Washington for their hours of work.

About one month ago, we noted how investors were favoring high P/E stocks. Over the past month, focus has shifted to changes in earnings and sales estimates. Over the past month, the three factors (out of 30) that have had the highest correlation to the returns of GKCI DM Index are 1-month change in EPS estimates, 3-month change in EPS estimates, and 1-month change in sales estimates.

It takes great effort to build a fortune—and great effort to pass it on to your kids (or others) without the taxman taking a big bite. This case study shows our analysis of four potential wealth transfer strategies that a 40-year-old pair of entrepreneurs considered after selling their business for $34 million—and how they chose among them.

Ideally, individuals should be able to plan and save for retirement and college at the same time. It can be done, with some proper planning, creative solutions and perhaps a few sacrifices.

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 134.5, down 0.5 from the previous week. Year-over-year the indicator is now at 0.77%, down from 0.98% the previous week and the eighth week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 5.3, a decrease of 0.3 from the previous week.

Economic data reports are subject to measurement error, statistical noise, and seasonal adjustment difficulties. They should always be taken with a grain of salt. However, that’s not to say that the figures are useless. Rather, they are subject to interpretation. What then do we make of the situation when the hard data conflicts with the anecdotal information?

A respectable number of Americans hold investments in gold and silver in one form or another. Some hold physical bullion, while others opt for indirect ownership via ETFs or other instruments. A very small minority speculate via the futures markets. But we frequently report on the futures markets – why exactly is that?

A new report from the US Labor Department last week found that more Americans are working past the age of 65 than ever before. Part of the reason is that Americans are living longer and more people want to work beyond age 65. But the main reason is that most Americans have not saved nearly enough for retirement, and many have no choice but to keep working.

Providing income and preserving economic security subsequent to retirement is an important issue for an aging population. Decumulation, living off one’s assets, requires a tradeoff between preserving capital and obtaining income. This article generalizes some simple decumulation strategies and explains the strengths and weaknesses of an inverted approach.

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 135.0, down 0.7 from the previous week. Year-over-year the indicator is now at 1.01%, down from 1.16% the previous week and the seventh week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 5.7, an increase of 0.3 from the previous week, and the fifth consecutive monthly increase.

The current Barron’s features an ETF roundtable where four panelists talked macro, how they use ETFs along with a few ETFs they each recommend. There was one comment in there that is worth exploring in a little more detail.

We recently published our first book, Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times – and Bad. It spent roughly six weeks as Amazon’s #1 Hot New Release in Investments, and we’re pleased to provide an excerpt of a few key chapters

The past five years have been challenging for long-term value-based asset allocation. We do not believe this constitutes a paradigm shift, dooming such strategies in the future. The basic driver for long-term value working historically has been the excessive volatility of asset prices relative to their underlying fundamental cash flows, and recent history does not show any evidence of that changing. Outperforming the markets given that pattern requires either betting that the excessive swings will reverse over time or accurately predicting what those excessive swings will be. The former strategy amounts to long-term value-based investing, while the latter requires outpredicting others as to both what surprises will hit the markets and how the markets will react to them. Our strong preference is to focus on long-term value, despite the inevitable periods of tough performance that strategy will entail.

The greatest danger comes when investors insist on speculating even after market internals have deteriorated and momentum has rolled over. Following a long period of speculative success, they may be tempted to ignore latent risks, and to keep speculating on the time-delay between the emergence of latent risks and their abrupt expression. They fall victim to the delusion that, in the words of Citigroup’s Chuck Prince just before the global financial crisis, “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” No, you don’t.

Since early January, metals prices have turned sharply higher, thanks in part to a weaker US dollar and improved sentiment about China. In turn, we have seen a strong reaction in the bonds of metals and mining companies — investment grade and high yield metals and mining bond yields are tighter by 300 and 500 basis points, respectively.1 Following such strong moves, the question now is whether there is still value in metals and mining bonds.

The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. That said, recent data was on the weak end. For example, employment growth was 1.9% yoy versus 2% or more during most of 2015. Retail sales was 0.9% yoy versus more than 2% during most of 2015. New home sales growth was 5%, but the peak in monthly sales was more than a year ago (February 2015). We will be watching closely to see if flattening growth persists or expands to other indicators over the next months.

We do not believe anyone wants to ‘kill the golden goose,’ however, and even politicians would likely admit that draconian price controls would reduce the incentive for investing in drug research and development, which has resulted in many breakthrough therapies in the last several years.

This is the final installment in my series of articles on fairly valued mid-cap selections. My inspiration to produce these articles was at the request and suggestion from regular readers who were frustrated at the lack of coverage and/or articles on mid-caps. To accommodate those requests, I screened through the S&P 400 mid-cap index with the assumption that it represented a credible universe of high-quality mid-caps. The fact that I was only reviewing the S&P 400 index was missed based on many comments received on my previous articles in this series. In other words, I only included fairly valued research candidates that are members of the S&P 400 index in this series.

The reality is that change - frequently disruptive, creative change - will always be a key factor to reckon with in the telemedia industry, as long as telemedia remains as vital as it is today.

Are Republican presidents better for markets, or are Democrats?

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 135.7, up 0.2 from the previous week. Year-over-year the indicator is now at 1.16%, up from 0.95% the previous week and the sixth week in positive territory. The company's Weekly Leading Index annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 5.4, an increase of 0.9 from the previous week, and well off its interim low of -4.7 in January of last year.

Last week, several consumer sentiment readings were released that show further weakness in confidence. As we move into May, the consumer is down—begging the question of whether the consumer is on the way out.

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.

Today we will focus on a recent study from the Levy Economics Institute which found that 90% of Americans were worse off financially in 2015 than at any time since the early 1970s. Furthermore, for the vast majority of Americans, the nation’s economy is in a prolonged period of stagnation, worse even than that of Japan.

It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market, in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of that risk. Although the recent pullback is largely in the rearview mirror, given valuations and recent market behavior, it's still useful to keep an eye on these factors.

The English journalist and economist Andrew Smithers has called “stockbroker economics” the belief that all news is good news and stocks are always cheap. Advisors recognize the fallacy of that logic and rely on diversification to counter the inevitable asset-class volatility that markets deliver. But, according to many forecasts – including those from GMO – virtually all asset classes are likely to perform poorly over the next decade.

With approximately $600 billion under management, T. Rowe Price has been entrusted with the assets of countless investors over its nearly 80-year history. Its eponymous founder popularized the concept of active management through growth-stock investing. I will examine whether the firm’s funds have historically added value for investors relative to a passive benchmark.

According to the World Economic Forum, the United States has achieved a new TOP 10 ranking. Tell us what we’ve won Bob.

Productivity growth is perhaps the single most important factor in the economy. Increased output per worker facilitates improvements in the standard of living over time. It’s how our children have a better future. It also helps support corporate profits. What to make then of the current situation, where productivity growth has slowed to a crawl in the U.S. and around the world? Will there be enough pie to go around?

It can be difficult to adjust to the end of a good run. For years following the financial crisis of 2008, investors benefited from a rally in financial markets facilitated in part by expansionary policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the globe.

Expectations and inflection points matter in investing, often more so than the overall level of any given data set. The besting of low expectations has helped stocks to move higher, but the bar has been raised so we continue to suggest a neutral allocation toward U.S. stocks. Globally, currency moves have played a large part in determining stock market action, and some calming in the currency markets could help stabilize global markets.

Although high profits can certainly help an economy, persistently high profits can be a sign of reduced competition and an impaired ability to grow.

Emissions of carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gasses are often foremost in people’s minds when they consider environmental risk. This is understandable as, if we continue on our current path, we are set for four degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, compared with pre-industrial levels. Expected consequences include the flooding of coastal cities, irreversible loss of biodiversity, severe heat waves, and high-intensity tropical cyclones. 2016 has seen Arctic sea ice at its lowest seasonal maximum in satellite records, so warming is already having significant impacts.

If you want to safeguard your portfolio against eventual inflation, here’s a tip: Don’t automatically think TIPS, or Treasuries. Consider this option instead.

This quarter, we explore the hypothesis that the modern era of Ricardian growth has ended. We further explore what this means for asset allocation and which types of stocks in particular should do well in this Ricardian hangover.

Investment strategy research has become a cottage industry, with hundreds of studies published every year claiming that actively managed strategies, from factor-based investing to market timing, have greater potential to generate alpha. Those claims are usually based on backtesting performance over various market timeframes. Campbell Harvey views most of this research with a high degree of skepticism.

In yesterday’s post, I mentioned that lower government spending has been a big factor in the slow U.S. economic recovery. But it’s not the only culprit. Today, we'll take a look at three major headwinds to economic growth and whether they're likely to continue going forward.

A recent series of financial shocks has raised questions about some fundamental risk-management strategies—particularly diversification. Tactical asset allocation is one answer, says Allianz Global Investor’s Multi Asset team, but dynamic risk mitigation may be more viable.

Value stocks have staged a comeback versus growth after a long losing streak. Based on the Russell 1000 style indexes, growth has outpaced value for the better part of the last decade. Other than the period between April 2012 and July 2013, it’s been all growth all the time since 2006.

The post-financial-crisis period has been dominated by a few very strong market trends. It is important to view these for what we believe they are—cycles that will eventually turn and may be in the process of turning. In this commentary, we discuss the concept of cycles as well as several very specific cycles we’ve experienced in recent years.

Far too often, advisors accept beliefs and practices that are detrimental to the financial wellbeing of clients. By reexamining them, you can achieve better outcomes for your clients.

Today, my plan was to highlight two of my favorite analysts, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Dr. Gary Shilling.  But that plan has changed and importantly, I believe, what I share this week can give us a better understanding of the structural issues we face.  And how they might be fixed.  Listening to Bloomberg’s Tom Keene early this week, I stood quiet as he interviewed Daniel Alpert.

In a broader sense, though, we are all living through an ongoing fiscal nightmare. The budget news at the Federal level is troubling enough, as we discussed in February.

China’s appetite for metals—gold, silver, copper, iron ore and more—is growing, another sign that the Asian giant is in turnaround mode.

We have some apprehension about the more dovish stance taken by the US Federal Reserve, which in our view may place too great a focus on global factors, despite a relatively tight US labor market and some indications of a pickup in core inflation.

Low yields coupled with fair valuations send a mixed message from the municipal bond market. The shift from a challenging seasonal period to a more favorable one provides another. The passage of April 15, or April 18 as is the case this year, marks not only the tax deadline but also the end of a challenging seasonal period for municipal bonds. Tax-related selling can often pressure municipal prices as soon as the start of March, but lackluster performance in both stock and bond markets in 2015 limited capital gains that might result in municipal bond sales.