Universal Orbit
Commentary
The Tangential Path to Alpha
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
Corporate-sponsored Green programs place Apple, Google, Target, Walmart and similar ethos companies at the forefront of US Renewables policy alongside federal tax incentives, state mandates, municipalities and utility companies. Here at the intersection of Renewables, Infrastructure and Environmental, Social and Governance programs lies the tangential path to Alpha.
Commentary
As the Earth Breathes
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
Three years to save Earth according to a group of United Nations scientists. Can 150 years of planetary abuse undo over four billion years of evolution? As the Earth breathes even climate neutralists concede probability may be at least a 51/49 percent proposition.
Commentary
Can Smart Beta think (twice)?
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
Recent introductions of multi-factor Smart Beta products demonstrate causality among its components and an ability to replicate past future pricing. Unclear is the extent to which Smart Beta adequately discerns the directional value of securities at points of inflection to consistently outperform allocated Beta, Index-plus or Alpha portfolio strategies.
Commentary
View From the Bottom: Reconciling Managed Fund and Allocated Strategies
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
In dominant ‘top-down, bottom-up’ approaches, portfolio strategies often meet at eclectic intersections: points joining benchmark indexes, structural nomenclature assignments and company-specific business segment operations. The structural inefficiencies embedded within performance benchmarks at these junctures result in measurable tiering effects on peer group analytics and, subsequently, valuation.
Commentary
High Yield Energy: Paths of Valuation and Correlated Effects
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
An observer may rightly state the bull case for oil and related investment thesis is not one of prescience but only precarious sentiment. True a simple wager on the directional valuation of commodity pricing may set the course, perhaps even amplified by modest use of leverage. In the Energy sector, valuating macroeconomic drivers consistent with the permutations of effects on corporate performance is measurable in degree though often variable in the most desired performance metric—timing.
Commentary
The Uncorrelated
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
Once deemed uncorrelated, sovereign energy policies combine infrastructure development with corporate capital investment accounting for both scalability of renewable sources over the next 25 years and commodity strip pricing in the short-term. Reflecting continued private investment in public policy, simple audit of global multinational corporate profiles features integrated wind and solar operations—a dedication of business segments operations within industrial portfolios including oil and gas.
Commentary
The Case for High Multiples
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
High P/E multiple companies, along with their near cousins N/A and NMF, display the characteristics of mid- to late-cycle reporting periodsincreasing trends in cash flow, from negative to positive. The case for high multiples is initially supported by lofty valuations and low interest rates amid robust earnings in this perhaps peak cycle. Irrespective of the cycles and subcycles driving profitability, we look forward to more variable less certain comparables among changing industry-specific capital market dynamics.
Commentary
Can Smart Beta Think?
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
The concept of Smart Beta introduced by the principles of Fundamental Indexation (Arnott, Hsu and More 2005) provides for a state of Nirvana, greater performance with less risk. Given the historic price action of equities in the Value and Small Cap asset classes, the extent to which Fundamental indexes are skewed to risk and outperformance relative to its market capitalization weighted CAPM Beta master is mathematical. Similarly, the degree of associated short-term volatility is predictable.
Commentary
Peer Group Analytics and Valuation, an Abstraction
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
Peer group analytics and valuation are essential components when assessing the optimal risk-return equation. As opposed to an efficient frontier populated with the regressed correlated expected future returns of conventional securities or asset classes perhaps one determined by business segment operations is more advantageous.
Commentary
EPV: Establishing Predictive Value (i.e., Demand Characteristics)
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
EPV: Establishing Predictive Value (i.e., Demand Characteristics) is designed as a complement to quantitative portfolio strategies and fundamental research. Continuing the thread from EPV:RO, tested is the premise of structural bias in performance benchmarks as determined by third party data vendors with implied effects on peer group analytics and valuation.
Commentary
EPV: Establishing Predictive Value (i.e., Relative Outperformance)
by David Kleinberg of Universal Orbit,
EPV: Establishing Predictive Value (i.e., Relative Outperformance) is a linear narrative outlining general limitations in third party data provider presentations and implied effects on peer group analytics. Reconciling the modulation of data with nomenclature is one facet of the qualitative assessments associated with quantitative analysis.
