In the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated.

The 2022 broad market downturn across major asset classes came as a nasty surprise to investors. Historically, such an event is very rare, and no one was expecting to see almost all asset classes down for the year. Yet, even though it might seem as if diversification was of no help in 2022, the story changes if we look beyond the major headline asset classes.

In the last year, we’ve written about the poor performance of clean energy, while highlighting the strong long-term outlook for the sector and the attractive valuations. These are typically the sorts of things we focus on…valuations and the long-term fundamental prospects for companies. We tend to shy away from overanalyzing short-term market dynamics.

Supply chain disruptions related to the port workers’ strike loom, the impacts of which we know can be incredibly destructive.

Long-term US Treasury yields rose last week as investors digested mixed economic data that reinforced the idea of a "Goldilocks" economy.

The puck has certainly moved since our last market commentary. This month, we argue that the needle on portfolio construction should move with it. Equities have been the driver of returns for much of the last few years.

Alpha (α) is a fundamental yet poorly understood concept in finance. Simply put, it is the difference between the return of an investment and that of a risk-adjusted benchmark. In a more advanced definition, alpha is the residual in an asset pricing equation (see Appendix A). Alpha is what active managers strive to achieve and passive managers do not pursue.

The wait is over for earnings watchers, as the latest quarterly read on US corporations kicks off with reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo on Friday. Earnings will provide a gut check on the state of the US economy, and investors will be looking for these results to confirm the mostly improving economic data that’s been released in the last month or so.

A return to lower yields has been every bond fund manager's dream since the nightmare of 2022. But now, with expectations dashed that they’d get their wish this year, it appears they’ll have to hang their hopes on 2025.

Underlying US inflation rose more than forecast in September, representing a pause in the recent progress toward moderating price pressures.

Tougher stances on trade are a point of bipartisan agreement.

The Fed’s “recalibration” of monetary policy is more than just about shifting to rate cuts. It also involves where the policy maker is now placing its greater emphasis on setting the course for easing in the future. Rather than inflation being the primary driver in the decision-making process, labor market activity has now taken center stage, and with that, one could argue, for the Fed, it’s now about the economy.

Market participation broadened beyond technology stocks during the third quarter.

Many emerging markets have delivered a robust performance this quarter amid a number of headwinds and we expect key geographies to build on that in the coming months.

The jobs report closed last week with robust read outs of an official number that beat economist expectations. Below the surface, however, hours worked fell to levels often associated with recessions. This juxtaposition of more workers clocking fewer hours suggests that while employment figures are up, the quantity of work didn’t expand much.

As the November 2024 election draws near, the election outcome will profoundly affect the financial markets. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency, each administration will bring distinct policies creating investment opportunities and potential risks for investors. With a divisive political landscape, it is crucial to understand how these potential outcomes can shape the stock market and your portfolio strategy.

Last week marked the beginning of the end of one of the most rapid interest rate hiking cycles in U.S. history.

Real estate stocks are notoriously rate-sensitive assets. It’s not surprising the delivery of the rate cuts were beneficial to the sector.

A crystal ball enlightening a trader about the rate cut headlines would have been costly. However, a trader with the crystal ball and proper context may have been more successful.

China’s recent stimulus announcements sparked a massive rally in its stocks, and a growing chorus of analysts see more gains ahead. Is this a reawakening of the country’s long slumbering stock market or just another false start? Bloomberg Opinion’s Nir Kaissar and Shuli Ren, based in the US and Hong Kong respectively, met online to discuss the risks and opportunities.

Judging from the public commentary, last Friday’s US jobs report confused economists in terms of their understanding of economic developments in the world’s largest economy and the policy approach of the Federal Reserve.

The rout in US government debt extended slightly on Tuesday, with longer-dated yields at the highest levels since late July and inflation data later in the week expected to enable Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

The federal debt is already $35 trillion and currently rising by roughly $2 trillion every year – with no end in sight. As a result, some investors are worried that the US could become a 21st Century version of Argentina: completely bankrupt and unable to pay the bills.

Just like road trips can bring unexpected detours, the economy and financial markets are at their own crossroads: recession or soft landing?

We bring together historical and real-time analysis for insight into the economy, markets, and potential alpha opportunities and risks we’re watching.

Monetary policy began to transition from restrictive to neutral last quarter, and we’re optimistic that continued easing can prevent a hard landing.

Global monetary easing and modest growth are creating a fairy tale story for investors. Their very high conviction in the outcome of that story, however, belies a number of serious risks.

The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates. Whether the economy falls into recession, hard or soft, is anyone’s guess.

Gold and the related exchange traded funds are among this year’s best-performing assets, helped in part by interest rate cuts.

Building a TIPS ladder gives us a license to spend and creates a spending floor. My TIPS ladder combined with Social Security provides a $10,000 monthly inflation-adjusted cash flow, though I’m delaying taking Social Security until age 70, of course.

Discussion about more political oversight or political control of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) occasionally heats up. We are seeing more of this type of discourse today as the election approaches. In our view, limited Fed independence could prove disastrous.

In the 1989 blockbuster Back to the Future II, time travel enables Michael J. Fox’s nemesis, Biff, to become a gazillionaire by bringing an almanac with sports match outcomes back from the future. We thought it might be instructive, and certainly entertaining, to make a less fanciful version of this dream a reality – for a few lucky people.

The strong gain of 254,000 jobs in September was a welcome surprise after months of cooling in the labor market and reinforced other signs of strength in the US economy. However, one month does not make a trend, and even with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, a sustained turnaround in hiring will take time.

Thanks to new legislation, Americans with retirement plans now have easier access to cash in the event of a financial emergency. A provision in the Secure Act 2.0 that took effect this year allows individuals with 401(k)s and other retirement plans to withdraw up to $1,000 without triggering a 10% early distribution penalty.

The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.

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The recent fears regarding the state of the U.S. employment sector seemed to have disappeared completely this morning as markets are ‘recalibrating’ their view on the U.S. economy going forward.

How will the U.S. dollar respond to Federal Reserve rate cuts? The factors that have supported a strong dollar for years remain largely intact.

We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.

As we approach the final stretch of 2024, much of the nation’s focus is on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. But while the political landscape remains uncertain, the markets are painting a different picture. September, traditionally a sluggish month for global equities, delivered an unexpected surge.

Market conditions are shifting fast. But making impulsive changes to equity portfolios and allocations can be counterproductive.

Mohamed El-Erian says the Federal Reserve needs to renew its focus on its fight against rising prices after September’s surprisingly hot jobs report served as a reminder that “inflation is not dead.”

Flashing green light – crowd will determine path forward.

As we look at today’s economy and financial markets, we are at a crossroads: Will it be a long straight highway to a soft landing, or will it be a bumpy road to recession?

If climate portfolios are positioned in the same giant US stocks held in broad equity allocations, investors may unwittingly double down on risk.

The dollar is about to notch its best week in two years. Geopolitical unrest, the odds of lower borrowing costs overseas and a resilient US economy are all spurring the world’s reserve currency higher.

Surprisingly strong hiring in September has taken pressure off the Federal Reserve by reducing worries over the US labor market, giving policymakers room to continue cutting interest rates at a more gradual pace in coming months.

With interest rates lower, inflation collapsing and wages rising faster than prices, there’s potential for a very happy holiday for US retailers.

September is typically the weakest month of the year for stocks, but thanks to the much-anticipated federal funds rate cut, the S&P 500 turned in its first positive performance in a September since 2019

We expect bond yields to trend gradually lower—but it may be a bumpy ride. These seven strategies may help investors take advantage.