“Animal spirits” were once again at large in global equity markets during the fourth quarter of 2017 as economic growth perked up in many parts of the globe and equity market returns followed in kind.

On the campaign trail, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump pledged to invest as much as $1 trillion in U.S. infrastructure if he were elected. This week during his first State of the Union address, now-President Trump added half a trillion dollars more to that figure.

At the end of the day, equity returns are driven by ROE, and we argue in this month's Absolute Return Letter that ROE is likely to drop as 2018 unfolds, partly due to rising inflationary pressures – particularly wage inflation – and partly due to rising borrowing costs. Perhaps more surprisingly, the new US tax reform could also negatively affect ROE. Continue to read if you want to understand why.

It is with mixed emotions that I’m leaving Franklin Templeton Investments, but I’m excited about the next chapter of my life and what the future will bring. It’s been a bittersweet whirlwind of activity after I announced plans to retire after more than 30 years with the company.

For fixed income investors eyeing opportunities in Europe, 2018 should be the year economic fundamentals reassert their worth, according to David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income. Nonetheless, Zahn believes many investors are underappreciating the long-term implications for Europe of the biggest political uncertainty for the region—Brexit.

This paper explores why real returns have stayed persistently low in recent years and why they may continue to stay low for the foreseeable future.

Conferences can be great fun and the final evening usually ends with a gathering at the hotel bar. This year’s Inside ETFs Conference ended with a bang for me. Sitting outside on a couch, 72 degrees, clear sky and comfortably positioned between the hotel bar, pool and ocean, daughter, Brianna, snuck up on me and grabbed the wine from my hand.

Disruption was definitely top of mind during many of the presentations and interviews at Inside ETFs, including that of producer and composer Quincy Jones, who was at the conference to promote a new stock index that tracks music and entertainment companies

Rick and Russ argue that the recently enacted U.S. tax cut and an evolving monetary policy backdrop provides both greater clarity on expected increases in volatility and underscores the need to remain flexible and opportunistic in allocation.

In their first-quarter (Q1) 2018 outlook, K2 Advisors’ Research and Portfolio Construction teams believe favorable dispersion has created reasons for optimism in three main hedge-fund strategies: Long/Short Equity – Europe, Relative Value and Discretionary Macro. We believe offering these insights will help investors better understand the rationale for owning retail mutual funds that invest in hedge strategies.

The ETF Investment Strategy surveys key risks around the globe including trade policy, geopolitical tensions and reform efforts.

We have all been taught to “play by the rules” since the very beginning of our lives. Our parents did the best they could to teach us rules of proper behavior. That list of rules continued to grow longer the older we got, governing our day to day interactions with others.

Whatever business you might be in, you’ll probably agree with me that a critical key to your success is sales. Of course, you need great product, great team members and grit. But with great product and no sales… No success.

Since the dawn of time music has played a pivotal role in the defining of the times and the progression made. We would like to utilize the artistic genius of these maestros to bring some context to the current pivotal point in the economy and capital markets.

As a provider of foreign exchange services that places a premium on robustness and transparency, we’re proud to have signed the FX Global Code. We believe others should follow suit.

It is important to separate mini-manias from true bubbles. Unfortunately, the difference is mostly the amount of money chasing the folly. Millions and even billions of dollars lost (and thousands of jobs) equate to fads, while trillions of dollars lost (and rampant unemployment and recessions) are bubbles.

Advisors need a great elevator pitch – a calling card lasting only the length of time it takes to ride an elevator to the top of an average building, about 30 seconds.

I set out to be a financial advisor in my early 30s and getting started wasn’t pretty. Here’s my advice to my younger self about how to use youth as a marketing strength rather than as a detractor from your credibility.

At the height of this eight-year bull market, we are trying to reconcile the notion that the markets and the global economy may be “as good as it gets” with the potential that as a result of technological change and increased market volatility, “the best may be yet to come.”

At the beginning of every year, we update what’s typically one of our most popular pages, the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns. I encourage you to explore 10 years’ worth of data on basic materials such as aluminum, zinc and everything in between. A word of warning, though—the interactive feature makes the table highly addictive.

In this issue, Research Affiliates provides its outlook for 2018 and discusses where it sees attractive return opportunities across the globe.

Emerging markets and commodities present the best investment opportunities for this year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Those to avoid include the S&P 500, which he claims will show a loss for 2018. His larger warning was that most of the good news on the economic front is already priced into the capital markets.

Everyone has clients who take up more than their share of time. A recent email from an advisor raised the question of how to manage this when it becomes more than a minor irritant.

Last week I shared a personal story with you that, frankly, I very much enjoyed writing. It is a story about two good friends and years of hard work that has resulted in something that I believe may someday win a Nobel Prize. For my friend’s sake, I sure hope so. 

This week and next we’ll look at forecasts from some of my most trusted friends and colleagues.

In addition to popping champagne corks and black-eyed peas (at least in the South) on New Year’s Day, year-end brings something else for economists and portfolio managers: annual forecasts. People want to know what the coming year will bring. I would like to know, too. But since I’m on the other side of your monitor, I must give you my own forecast. Caveat emptor applies.

All buying and selling meets at a point of price. More buyers than sellers, prices move up. More sellers than buyers, prices decline. The dynamics of supply and demand we learned in Econ 101. True for all things. Current conditions? Liquidity, leverage, more buyers than sellers. The bull market advances on.

The economic news this year could scarcely have been better. Strong growth, low inflation and rising asset prices in major markets will make 2017 one of the most successful years in recent memory.

Tesla is an uninvestable stock, not just because of its high valuation but also because it fails a fairly basic quality test, which I shamelessly borrowed from Warren Buffett.

Jeremy Grantham co-founded GMO in 1977 and serves as the firm’s chief investment strategist. Lucas White is the lead portfolio manager for the GMO Climate Change Strategy. In this interview, Jeremy and Lucas discus the risks and opportunities in climate-change-focused investing.

U.S. stock market indices continue to reach new highs and major global economies are growing in sync for the first time in a decade. Corporate earnings have reached record levels, business confidence indicators are climbing while inflation remains in check.

There’s a lot of information about how to engage others. My research shows much of this advice is wide of the mark. A story about how someone engaged a group of passengers whose flight was hopelessly delayed showed the power of my research and how it can be applied to interactions with your clients.

When I was young, my mother bought me a book written by Grantland Rice. Rice was one of the all-time great sports writers and I was crazy about sports. It was the type of book you could pick up and read a quick story, put down and pick up again… a new story. She later framed the above quote and hung it on my bedroom wall.

I visited Brazil in the spring of this year, but wanted to go back and explore more areas of the country. Brazil has faced some hard times but appears to be bouncing back from a prolonged recession, so I was interested to gauge the mood of the people and businesses there.

Below are five questions to help guide your thinking when making investment decisions in the new year.

We expect the global expansion to continue in 2018. Yet investors should prepare for both the consequences of policy shifts and the opportunities presented in more difficult market conditions.

Harold Evensky's most recent Newsletter.

Advisors tell me referrals are “drying up” – and industry data backs this up. Here are the reasons behind this trends and what advisors should do to restart the flow of high-quality referrals.

Today I’ll give you some quick thoughts on the just-issued November jobs report, then take a deeper look at the automation problem/opportunity.

I veer from our usual roster of topics this week to bring you an update on China and its prospects for continued hot economic growth, or lack thereof. China is the second largest economy on the planet, behind the US, and many (if not most) Americans believe that it won’t be too long before China overtakes the US as the largest economy in the world.

Wade Pfau has written an important book: How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?: A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Income Strategies. It should be read by not just financial planners, but also all investment advisors who work with individual accounts.

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is,” Warren Buffett famously said. “The time to get interested is when no one else is.” The same logic applies to Christmas decorations, gold and mining stocks.

Are you ready to die younger than your parents? It may not be what you want, but for society it is not at all that bad. In the years to come, we will literally drown in healthcare costs, but declining longevity, which is an emerging trend, could just about to solve that problem.

Earlier this month, I shared with you a quote from Arnoud Balhuizen, chief commercial officer of BHP Billiton, the largest mining company in the world. In a September interview with Reuters, Balhuizen called 2017 the “revolution year [for electric vehicles], and copper is the metal of the future.”

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your wonderful family. Today’s post is holiday short because by the time it hits your in box I’ll hopefully be home with IPA in hand celebrating a hard-fought Black Friday golf tournament victory. Daughter, Brianna; son, Matthew and good friend, Stevie Oh, rounds out our foursome. If you are familiar with golf, it’s a scramble format where each player tees off.

Even if you don’t mislead or offend clients, if you bore them, the time and effort to communicate with clients is wasted. There are six components to doing a great job of communicating online. While some advisors get two or three of them right, almost no one nails all six … and as a result, you aren’t getting the return that you could.

Emerging markets offer investors plenty of opportunity, but managing downside risk effectively is critical. A flexible framework that integrates multiple asset classes can help.

The volume of daily economic lunacy that lights up my various devices is truly stunning, and it seems to be increasing. I shared a little of it with you in last week’s “Bonfire of the Absurdities.” Since it’s a holiday weekend and I was traveling all week, today I’ll just give you a few more absurdities to ponder. And this shorter letter will lighten your weekend reading load.

A helpful way to look at inflation is the changing cost of a typical Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people. For the second straight year, the cost actually declined from the previous year’s holiday, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). This year’s feast, including staples such as turkey, rolls, sweet potatoes and more, fell $0.75 to a five-year low of $49.12. On an inflation-adjusted basis, that’s down more than $10 from 30 years ago. The turkey alone cost about 1.6 percent less than last year.