This year, China is in the headlines because President Trump wants better trade terms. That’s important, but it’s only one piece of a much larger Chinese story that has been unfolding slowly for decades. Periodically, I check in on the latest developments. Today, we’ll see where we are, with the help of my trusted sources.

In this issue, the Northern Trust economics team explores the challenges facing Ireland in Brexit, the continuing demand for eurozone debt, and wage growth within U.S. states.

The investment case for commodities, gold and energy is more compelling than at any other time in recent memory.

Market volatility does exist! After a year of all-time low volatility and booming stock and bond markets, investors received a wake-up call in February when equity indexes around the globe sold off by as much as 10% in a matter of days.

Last week, we introduced this topic by discussing the Cold War. This week, we will continue our analysis with a reflection on markets, an examination of hegemony and a discussion of the expansion of globalization and the rise of meritocracy and its discontents.

David was the King of Israel and the writer of many of the Psalms. He spent his formative years as a shepherd and framed his life’s work around the key concepts from his profession. Herds were the primary form of wealth back then, while common stocks are a primary form today.

Today we’re going to look at who wins and who loses under the new tax law. I think many of you will be surprised.

You’ve no doubt heard that everything’s bigger in Texas. That’s more than just a trite expression, and I’m not just saying that because Texas is home to U.S. Global Investors.

What do the best leaders do to gain the trust and respect of their followers? They master these seven key skills.

The definition of a China syndrome is, “A hypothetical sequence of events following the meltdown of a nuclear reactor in which the core melts through its containment structure and deep into the earth; hypothetically to China.”

If you’re looking to grow by realigning your practice with your inner beliefs and passions, here are five reasons to move to a small or mid-sized broker dealer firm.

Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.

The economic calendar has several of the most important reports. The managerial rosters will be back at full strength, perhaps after an extra day or two off. Investment committees will consider implications from Q1 results. Pundits will try to explain what it all means.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the U.S. will become a net exporter of energy by as early as 2022, and the agency recently shared fresh data that supports the narrative that America is on the cusp of taking the throne as the world’s leading energy powerhouse.

By combining a tilt toward companies that display financial discipline and that embrace corporate diversity with the return engine of a fundamentally weighted portfolio, we believe investors in environmental, social, and governance (ESG)–related strategies have the opportunity to earn superior long-term risk-adjusted returns.

Our CEO is Robert Huebscher, but we know and love him as “Bob.” We would like you to get to know him, so this section is dedicated to updates and facts about Bob! Did you know that he is a wine collector?

Economic trends clearly point toward higher inflation and interest rates ahead, which will likely make capital markets more volatile. Based on recent headlines, politics seems likely to add fuel to this fire.

We heard a lot about valuations at my Strategic Investment Conference, and particularly about the “FAANG” stocks that drove much of the recent bull run. Now, only two weeks later, the “F” in that acronym (Facebook) is tumbling, with the others maybe not far behind. That’s a problem for every stock investor, FAANG or otherwise. So today we’ll look at valuations more broadly and then zero in on the social networking issues that are turning more problematic.

As I told Kitco News’ Daniela Cambone this week, I stand by the $1,500 forecast. Before this week, investors might have been slightly disappointed by gold's mostly sideways performance so far this year. But now, in response to a number of factors, it's up close to 3 percent in 2018, compared to the S&P 500 Index, down 2.4 percent.

In many respects, economists are a little unusual. We think in odd ways, and we arrange data into odd patterns. We find it hard to reach conclusions without significant equivocation.

Blackstone is pleased to offer the following Market Commentary by Byron Wien which shares his thinking on global economic developments, market insights and other factors that may influence investment opportunities and strategies.

The global expansion is either nearing its demand-driven peak or in the early stages of a supply-driven renaissance. We share our assessment and portfolio positioning.

Bill Gross' March 2018 Investment Outlook: A monthly outlook on the global financial markets.

China has dropped norms to allow President Xi Jinping to remain in power after his second term ends. While worrisome at first blush, the populist turn and consolidation of power likely has near-term economic and financial market benefits, and longer-term political risks. Thornburg's Lei Wang weighs in on the populist turn in China, which is among a growing contingent of populist nations.

We’ve written about the American steel tariffs in each of the last two weeks. But there remain some important points to make on the topic of trade.

Rick and Russ on the new volatility regime, why risk is being misapprehended, and how to navigate these new challenges.

2017 was a record-breaking year for the $20 billion club—our name for the U.S. publicly-listed corporations with the largest pension liabilities—in at least five different ways. Contributions were double 2016 levels and nearly triple 2015 levels.

No doubt you’ve heard before that bull markets don’t die of old age. I can’t say for sure what will end this particular business cycle—no one can—but we’re seeing huge shifts in monetary and fiscal policy right now that investors can’t afford to ignore. As I often say, government policy is a precursor to change.

Over the last couple of years lithium producers and miners have enjoyed a parabolic jump in their stock prices and market caps. As I will later illustrate, much of the gains for lithium related companies have come as a result of the “hype” surrounding electric automobile development.

There isn’t convincing evidence that a style-timing strategy, based on business cycles, can be expected to be profitable going forward.

While it seems US politicians rarely see eye-to-eye on anything, the fact that America’s aging infrastructure needs attention is one issue that has attracted clear bipartisan agreement. Yet, it’s unclear who is going to foot the bill for the sweeping improvements that seem to be needed.

We view the events of late January and early February as healthy – the final “death spasm” of market reliance on central bank policy, and a return to more normalized market conditions – volatility returns, earnings and fundamentals matter, and a reminder that stocks can go down sometimes as well as always up.

There are logical explanations for why the size premium may have shrunk. But there also remain simple, intuitive, risk-based explanations for why the premium should persist.

President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff on imported steel and aluminum, at 25 percent and 10 percent, is much more than a shot across the bow. Indeed, this could be the official kickoff of the trade war we all anticipated. The protectionist trade policy, announced this week as the president met with metals executives, raised fresh inflation worries and had an immediate impact on capital markets.

Stock market volatility appears to be largely a consequence of the economic environment returning to a more “normal” status.

What a great question! I recently reread the above quote from Bob Prechter. It’s an excellent quip and virtually everybody can identify with it. On the surface the question seems laughable; who can’t accept huge gains? But in order to set yourself up for such gains you have to possess the courage to take an oversize position and maybe even leverage it.

U.S. fiscal policy has become unmoored, and it will be difficult to steer it safely back to shore.

You post what you think is a genius article to your LinkedIn page and what do you get? Two likes, and one of them is from your mother. Not the target audience you wanted. Here’s a zero-cost solution, including an example of how I recently landed a new client with it.

Do you have any tips on the best way to coach and mentor someone who is the heir apparent in my firm? I have a young man who is sharp, highly credentialed and very good with clients. The problem is he rubs people in the firm the wrong way.

In the movie, Minority Report, Tom Cruise plays a policeman in a world where crimes are predicted ahead of time. Cruise’s character gets accused of a future murder and he is forced to work incredibly hard to acquit himself of the anticipated crime.

We expect a constructive global growth environment to persist into 2018. While there is potential for a temporary slowdown, a significant deviation from broadly positive trends across risk asset markets seems unlikely. How might this differ across key regions? Read on for a visual snapshot of themes across the globe.

Global equity markets are still hurting from last week’s sell-off. Yet the renewed volatility could mark a return to reality after an unusually long period of steady gains and may even foster a healthier investing environment over time.

One of my big risk concerns is the unknown amount of money in the risk parity trade. Essentially, volatility drives the weighting decisions. If equity market vol is low, then equities get a weighting. If equity market vol picks up, then, by rule, the risk parity strategies rebalance their exposures… in this case, reduce equity market exposure. They are mathematically-driven strategies and all essentially use very similar volatility measurements.

A Man for All Markets is an autobiographical account of the life and work of Ed Thorp, a brilliant, accomplished, but humble man who figured out how to win at blackjack and roulette and then ran a successful hedge fund.

It has been a long time since we had something that resembles normal interest rates and normal economics. Some even called the financial environment we live in as the “New Normal”. Retirees and savers have suffered the most during this prolonged low rate period.

Global equities roared out of the gate in January, notching their best start to a new year since 1994. The price of oil made an even larger jump than equities, reaching its highest price since 2014, while the U.S. dollar endured its largest monthly decline in nearly two years. Even though bond-market inflation expectations have risen to a three-year high, the Fed kept its overnight interest rate unchanged at its January meeting.

It seems that after years of expecting inflation to rise to its 2.0% target the Federal Reserve and many
economists have concluded it’s just not possible. The reasons most often cited are the Amazon Affect,
Artificial Intelligence, weak wage growth, years of excess capacity, and transitory factors like the mobile phone price war in March 2017.

While we don’t know when the equity market’s recent volatility will settle down, it’s important to consider the big-picture, fundamental backdrop for the market, and not get caught up in short-term sentiment swings, according to Franklin Templeton’s head of equities, Stephen Dover. And, he believes the fundamental backdrop still looks solid.

The most common financial question that we have been asked over the last six months or so relates to Bitcoin (or any number of other cryptocurrencies). Is it real? How is it valued? Should we invest in it? Can it keep going up in price?

When dealing with problematic clients, there is no cookie-cutter formula that works all the time. But by getting clarity on and being proactive in dealing with what is causing the issue, you will manage the damage from problematic clients for you, your team and your practice.