Oak Associates

Commentary

Dieting is Hard
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 7/15/22

Investors are grappling with the reality of a new monetary backdrop in the US.
Commentary

The Debate Over Guns or Butter Returns
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 3/10/22

In economics, “Guns or Butter” compares the impact of government spending on defense and non-defense categories. The Russia invasion of Ukraine has implications for investors and categories associated with defense, energy and industrials. Sectors deemed in the national interest should benefit from better appropriation, less regulation and bipartisan support.
Commentary

Q3 2021 Market Commentary Answers to Our Most Recent Client Questions
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 10/11/21

US stocks, as seen by the S&P 500, ended the third quarter unchanged, having shed over 4% in September as fears over the debt ceiling and the Fed’s options erased the summer’s progress. Certainly, the market environment has changed a lot over the past 18 months. Valuations are up, economic data is varied, and the prospects of potential Fed action are growing.
Commentary

Play Ball
by Jeffrey Travis of Oak Associates, 7/2/21

Baseball fans returning to ballparks has been a definitive symbol of the optimism emanating from the reopening of the US economy. While the enthusiasm from consumers and investors alike is warranted, Jeff uses his version of the old-western movie title ‘The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly’ to describe Oak’s current view of the investment landscape.
Commentary

Light at the End of a Long Tunnel
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 4/7/21

We have all endured the Covid-19 pandemic for over a year now.
Commentary

The Heavy Lifting
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 1/22/21

Wall Street and Main Street are two different zip codes. In 2020, one neighborhood struggled with rising economic uncertainty, while the other posted strong gains underscored by a loose fiscal and monetary environment. In 2021, we expect the neighborhood's economic fortunes to converge.
Commentary

The Calm After the Storms
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 10/4/17

We have stated many times over the past decade how well the stock market does overlooking the prominent headlines of the day and remaining focused on the underlying economy and its outlook. The third quarter of 2017 was no exception.
Commentary

What Keeps Us Awake at Night
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 10/10/16

The US stock market, as seen by the S&P 500, rose an impressive 3.8% during the third quarter of 2016.
Commentary

Submerging Markets
by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates, 2/17/16
It has been a dreadful start to the year for stocks, with the S&P 500 Index down more than 10% as we write this. As is usually the case, this correction is being driven by concerns about a slowing economy. The emerging markets and the commodity sectors are the primary culprits this time, and the fear is that the weakness in those areas will spill over into the broader US economy.
Commentary

Dot-Communism
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 10/8/15
In this commentary, Portfolio Manager Robert Stimpson discusses the effect the sharp correction in Chinese equities, the unwinding of the commodity supercycle, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay interest rate increases have had on US markets. Whether China’s own equity market China Syndrome will cause lasting damage to global markets - or simply a short-term spike in volatility and poor investor sentiment - is difficult to assess. Underlying fundamentals continue to suggest that corporate earnings are strong.
Commentary

ETFs: “Like Handing an Arsonist a Match”
by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates, 9/8/15
The popularity of ETFs has grown among market participants who, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, want to be able to reduce market exposure or shift between sectors when they sense danger/opportunity. The recent correction has brought to light the role of ETFs in the market, and the volume statistics are mind-boggling. Innovation is generally good, but like many things in life, there is a downside, and we would argue the downside to using ETFs to engage in frequent portfolio repositioning is particularly steep.
Commentary

Sharp Selloff
by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates, 8/27/15
In a matter of a week the stock market has gone from historically low volatility to historically high volatility. The good news is that, in our estimation, the current events are not enough to throw the US economy into recession. The nature of a selloff can be quite informative as to its meaning or duration, and there are many signs that this correction may be ephemeral and that stocks may bounce back.
Commentary

Policy Paranoia
by Robert Stimpson of Oak Associates, 4/8/15
The present version of policy paranoia encompasses concerns over impending interest rate hikes, the rapid appreciation of the US dollar, a bloated US government balance sheet, weak international economies and increased probability of a crisis in certain Latin American countries. While legitimate, we do not believe the current ghosts are any more imminently destructive today than over the past six years.
Commentary

Volatility Takes a Sabbatical
by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates, 7/8/14
The theme of the second quarter was low volatility, as stocks continued to grind higher. As June ended, the S&P 500 had gone 51 consecutive trading sessions without moving 1% or more in either direction. Not since April 16 has the index moved at least 1% in a given day. This is a remarkable streak and quite a contrast with the volatility of recent years. Naturally, when something like this happens, the inclination is to try to figure out what it means for the market going forward.
Commentary

Resisting the Sirens
by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates, 4/28/14
There has been an interesting shift in the market over the past several weeks, as high-growth stocks (an area to which we have limited exposure, given our preference for more fairly-valued growth opportunities) have suffered a significant correction after being the darlings of the market since June of last year.
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