Nothing has been setting the US bond market’s direction this year more than the monthly inflation figures. This week will be no exception.

Bank lending standards are still restrictive, underscoring the Fed's view that financial conditions remain tight and any resulting economic weakness could keep rate cuts in play.

The biggest US tech stocks are not only a bet on innovation but also a possible hedge against inflation, according to some respondents in the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.

Here we go again. Brace for the latest dose of critical data on US inflation over the next three days, as the New York Federal Reserve publishes its monthly survey of consumers’ inflation expectations Monday, followed by the Labor Department’s report on producer prices Tuesday and consumer prices Wednesday.

The latest FOMC meeting caused a stock rally as Jerome Powell turned more “dovish” than expected. While Powell did note that progress on inflation has been lackluster, the announcement of the reversal of “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) excited the bulls.

US housing has weathered surging mortgage rates. Thin inventory and pent-up demand could create opportunity.

Guessing the direction of interest rates is no easier than any other tactical or market timing decision. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is just under 3.9%. That is about 100 basis points less than it was a few months ago. Fed policy is uncertain, inflation has not been fully controlled, and fiscal deficits loom as a long-term risk for yields to go higher.

Investors have been obsessed with when the Fed will cut and how many rate cuts there will be this year and over the entire cycle.

In this PIMCO Perspectives, we examine how the return of elevated bond yields comes at an opportune time to consider shifting out of cash.

Stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities have made significant moves in the past few months. Find out what factors to consider when deploying or redeploying capital from Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover.

We think the intersection of hope and fear offers opportunity across asset classes and market segments. Tapping into it, however, requires in-depth research and a discerning eye. Waiting for a clarion bell to ring before deploying capital might leave investors a step behind.

Anshul Pradhan and Stephen Stanley both saw the current US bond market coming. They just don’t agree on where it’s going.

Points of Return often argues for caution on stocks. It never argues to get out of them altogether. That’s because history demonstrates that over long time spans it’s very dangerous to be out of the market altogether.

Shifting dynamics among global economies and markets present a range of opportunities for multi-asset portfolios.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why persistently loose fiscal policy, relentless price pressures and resilient economic growth may cause a problem for the US Federal Reserve—and explains the implications for bond yields.

As of last week, the total return of the S&P 500 was even with 3-month Treasury bill returns since the valuation peak of January 2022, more than two years ago. In our view, investors continue to “grasp at the suds of yesterday’s bubble,” ignoring extreme valuations, lopsided bullish sentiment, emerging pressure on profit margins, economic conditions at the border of recession...

The global bond rally ignited by hopes of lower interest rates in the US will face its first big test on Tuesday, when the Treasury kicks off $125 billion of sales this week.

The housing market is a big worry for Democrats as we move closer to US elections in November. It’s one of the primary reasons measures of consumer confidence remain depressed as a combination of high prices and high mortgage rates keep homes out of reach for many.

The breeze of this earnings season has been near perfect. First-quarter earnings, now published by 80% plus of the S&P 500’s members, put the index’s profits on course for their strongest growth since the second quarter of 2022, when higher inflation and higher rates began to bite.

Bonds investors now balance the potential risks and rewards of taking on longer duration exposures in the current environment.

The article explores why the Federal Reserve might face pressure to raise interest rates rather than lower them in 2024, contrary to conventional expectations. It delves into the current phase of the business cycle, particularly focusing on the bullish trend for commodities and its implications for inflation.

The markets rightly experienced a significant relief last week. Stay up to date on last week’s Fed meeting with the latest commentary from Professor Siegel.

The stronger U.S. dollar is benefiting America, but creating troubles in other geographies.

For the first time in nearly a generation, fixed income is living up to its name.

An April rout in emerging-market bonds and currencies has some former bulls turning negative on the outlook for the asset class.

Gross was famous for squeezing out extra yield using corporate bonds, mortgages, derivatives and other instruments.

I’m entering my annual post-SIC decompression period. I say that only half-jokingly. The last two weeks were my version of a dive deep into the sea, where you see shocking things and endure crushing pressure. The weeks of preparation are fun, but the sheer volume of information creates its own kind of pressure. You don’t just shift back into normal life after that.

The current macroenvironment could spell opportunity for active bond funds as bond yields may have peaked.

We’ve just come through the first quarter of 2024 – and what a quarter it was! Hard on the heels of a robust end to 2023, the S&P 500 Index rose 11% in the first quarter of this year. This is the first time since 2012 that it’s had back-to-back double-digit quarterly returns.

I had the opportunity this week to speak at the London AIM Summit, where presenters and attendees were cautiously optimistic about the economy.

The latest run of unchecked optimism might just be over.

The Federal Reserve just wrapped up another policy meeting, and markets continue to push back their expectations of a first rate cut.

With yields at current levels, bond funds can lock in longer term yields, offer price appreciation potential and overall serve as a hedge against a possible hard landing. Though elevated cash balances worked during the Fed’s hiking cycle, we believe now is an opportunity for clients to consider adding duration given the potential for a Fed pause.

Treasuries surged and traders ramped up bets on how soon the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates this year after a US labor-market report trailed estimates.

Wall Street analysts see a double-digit upside potential for the S&P 500’s biggest losers this year: real estate stocks.

Those that argue for lower rates have to counter the inexorable upward climb in Treasury supply and the likely Sisyphean decline in bond prices. Total Return is dead. Don’t let them sell you a bond fund.

April’s sell-off isn’t dissuading investors from taking a closer look at adding bonds to their portfolio. The price dip is giving prospective bond investors a chance to take action on higher yields now before the U.S. Federal Reserve eventually cuts rates.

Inflation and interest rate hikes have not been kind to REITs and the funds that own them. However, their low valuations could indicate an opportunity for investors.

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the May meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.

It makes sense that longer-maturity bonds typically provide higher yields than shorter-term bonds. After all, more bad things can happen in a longer period than a shorter one, and visibility is poorer for the next 10 years than for tomorrow. Investors expect to be paid for these risks.

The S&P 500 experienced its first 5% pullback since October 2023, but the long-term outlook remains positive.

TIPS offer inflation protection, but at the cost of higher volatility and lower returns in bad times (when inflation is low). TIPS behave somewhere between corporate bonds and nominal Treasuries.

The prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates is weighing on crypto, underlined by deepening Bitcoin losses after the token’s worst monthly drop since the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire in November 2022.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept hopes alive for an interest-rate cut this year while acknowledging that a burst of inflation has reduced policymakers’ confidence that price pressures are ebbing.

When Berkshire Hathaway Inc. devotees gather in Omaha on Saturday for its annual meeting, there will be a noticeable void on stage.

One of the main advantages of constructing a portfolio of individual bonds is that it can be customized to meet the precise needs, wants, and objectives of the investor

Emerging-market (EM) corporate bonds are too-often overlooked by investors who presume the asset class is too niche or too risky. But the aggregate fundamentals of EM corporates are stronger than those of their developed-market counterparts.

The first-quarter GDP report supports the view that the US economy has not landed. While some economists are concerned about stagflation, the real worry is that taming price pressures may require a mild downturn, given strong consumer spending and inadequately restrictive monetary policy.

High quality short-term bonds offer a number portfolio benefits while putting excess cash to work, but what's under the hood matters.

Elevated all-in yields in high yield credit present an attractive opportunity for income-seeking investors to lock in higher levels of income. Of course, that comes with a much higher degree of risk as compared to sitting in cash.