I hate making predictions. I got the tech wreak and sub-prime right, but was far too early on those predictions.

Since investors are mostly individuals that have a “day job,” the majority of their “research” comes from a daily dose of media headlines. Therefore, since the media tends to “focus” their attention on “market moving headlines,” either bullish or bearish, investors tend to “react” accordingly.

Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally.

While many group commodities as one asset class, in reality each commodity trades on its own fundamentals. Historic correlation between commodities has been relatively low. In this outlook we will provide an overview of our views on major commodities within each sub-category.

The Year of the Dynamic ETF With the world digesting the surprising results of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, the team at IndexIQ has turned their thoughts to next year and their top five ETF-focused trends and insights for 2017.

When the Commerce Department reported on December 22 that 3Q Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 3.5%, many of us in the forecasting business wondered if that figure might be too optimistic. We also wondered whether the economy could sustain a 3+% growth rate in the 4Q.

I believe this rally was the result of animal spirits based on the notion that Trump’s pro-growth policies will support the economy. At the same time, many investors assume that growth in the economy will lead to upticks in inflation and interest rates, which—along with lighter regulations—are perceived as positive for business.

Finding opportunities outside of traditional investments offers advisors unique ways to diversify portfolios. Crowdfunding is a way to participate in real estate investing without the traditional capital investment required. With the uncertainty of the new administration’s impact on policies, investors need to look for ways to reduce risk and increase growth.

There are several irrefutable facts that should be informing the strategies for leaders in financial services.

Today, let’s take a look at the most current equity market valuations for they can tell us a great deal about future 7-year and 10-year annualized returns. We’ll also look at the bond market. Total U.S. credit market debt-to-GDP is nearly 355%. Global debt-to-GDP is 325%.

While it’s well-known that the DOL’s fiduciary ruling requires all financial advisors to put their clients’ interests first, financial services professionals are still unable to know how broad of an impact the ruling will have on other aspects of their practice, including marketing.

I question why any financial advisor would want to use B.I.C.E., given the likelihood of significant reputational damage that would result for the advisor.

For many years “alpha” – outperformance of the market on a risk-adjusted basis – was the Holy Grail of investment. Almost all money managers claimed they could produce it. It turned out that few could. Now a new Holy Grail: diversification. But there is little agreement as to what it means.

In conjunction with the publishing of a summary of Schwab's 2017 outlook across asset classes; this report is a more detailed summary of my 2017 outlook, with a dash of rear-view mirror analysis of the year just ended. Each of the broad topics discussed below will be further unpacked over the next couple of months in individual reports.

The fourth quarter of 2016 was a profitable period for globally diversified multi asset managers. All major domestic large cap indices were up for both the quarter and the year.

2016 was a terrific year for small-cap stocks that included some key reversals: The Russell 2000 turned around 2015's negative result, value outperformed growth, and cyclicals beat defensives.

What effect will the index fund revolution and the Department of Labor’s (DOL) fiduciary rule have on active managers? The data shows that active management is still a healthy business model. But industry consolidation is coming and advisors will need to change the way they construct portfolios.

Consider the DOL’s new Fiduciary Rule. When it goes into effect in April 2017, it will inevitably limit the number of investment products available to retail investors. The ruling states that all retirement planners, advisors and broker-dealers must now “act in the best interests of clients” and charge only “reasonable” fees. This all sounds fine, but what’s naturally going to happen is financial professionals—in an effort to remain compliant with the rule—will recommend only the least expensive products, regardless of whether they’re a good fit. Many mutual funds—which might be better performing but have higher expenses than other investment vehicles—will fall off of brokerage firms’ platforms.

Great articles don’t always get the readership they deserve. Earlier this week we published the top 10 most-read investing and financial planning articles and a similar top 10 practice management articles. Below are another 10 that you might have missed, but I believe merit reading.

Individual commodities trade on their own fundamentals. Near-term pressure on gold and silver to give way as inflation rises faster than interest rates. Oil to continue range bound trading in first half until visible signs of production cut-backs emerge...

The flow of assets to passive products over the last several years has increased the pressure on active mutual funds. Analysts are predicting an industry consolidation with the prime target being those funds that track an index but charge relatively high active management fees – the so-called closet-index funds. Here are the 10 largest such U.S. large-cap equity funds.

Good financial products are bought, not sold. We are beginning a series of articles analyzing some of the most aggressively sold financial products – those which are advertised on television. This is the first installment in our series.

As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read articles over the past 12 months. The list below reflects articles focused on investing, financial planning and the economy. On Thursday, we will publish the 10 most-read articles on practice management.

As we head into the final stretch of 2016, the U.S. dollar has taken control of the markets. As the incoming Trump administration continues to promise fiscal spending and tax cuts, the Fed is now positioning to do a bit more tightening—all while the U.S. and global economic datapoints move higher.

Over the last few weeks I’ve fielded several financial related questions (more personal finance than actual investing) from some younger people in my life (mostly nephews). This is a great reminder of a point I have made quite a few times over the years which is that even if you’re not an advisor...

“Miracle on 34th Street” is a 1947 movie whose plot takes place between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas in New York City. It focuses on a department store Santa Claus who claims to be the real Santa.

I’ve fielded a large number of investor questions recently around tax cuts and earnings. The idea is that tax cuts, for both corporations and individuals, will significantly improve corporate earnings and thus propel the market higher.

Growth stocks often lead to large returns but they require researching and understanding the industry and company before investing. Investors should look ahead to likely policy changes with the new presidential administration and their potential long-term effects to create a sustainable portfolio.

Some of Donald Trump’s plans for the US economy may provide a big boost for small stocks. We think there are five compelling reasons for investors to take a closer look at this segment of the market.

Jeffrey Gundlach predicts trouble for the equity, corporate and junk-bond markets if the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond goes above 3% in 2017. Even the housing market would suffer.

Alternative investments have been gaining wide acceptance in many investors’ portfolios as a way to provide diversification. However, incorporating these strategies into portfolios introduces two challenges: 1) understanding the complexity of these strategies and 2) determining the appropriate allocation of alternatives in a diversified portfolio.

To see how well Janus’ actively managed funds have performed for its investors, I’ll compare the results of its actively managed equity funds to those of index funds from Vanguard and the structured asset class funds of DFA.

The Queens Road Small Value fund has outperformed its benchmark, the Russell 2000 Value Index, over the past 10 years and since inception in 2002, earning an annualized return of 9.59% vs. 8.38% for the Russell 2000 Value Index. I spoke with Steven Scruggs, who has served as portfolio manager for that entire 14-year period.

“If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” – Walter Bahr

November turned out to be an excellent month for the major U.S. stock indexes, with all three, plus the Russell 2000 index of small caps, hitting record highs.

While on the surface the Italian Referendum appears to be only about the structure of government power and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s desire to pass economic reforms, beneath the surface is a serious financial issue that has the potential to impact not just Italy, but Europe and beyond. This may sound small and meaningless to you and me but it is not.

Oil prices jumped sharply in the wake of OPEC’s pact to cut production, but the market might wait to see implementation of the output reduction. OPEC’s quota compliance history and current market supply and demand dynamics don’t necessarily support sharp climbs in oil prices.

Prime Minister Modi’s politically risky push to tamp down India’s outsized underground economy by pulling the largest rupee bills out of circulation is causing real disruption among consumers and businesses.

Since the pre-election low on November 4, the S&P 500 is up 4.7%, while the Russell 2000 (small caps) is up a whopping 13.8%—rallies which have confounded many investors given the pre-election consensus that stocks would fall on the uncertainty associated with a Trump victory.

One way to win big in emerging markets is to catch the early onset of a country’s wealth surge. The tipping point is often a reform-driven drop in the cost of raising capital.

Abhay Deshpande founded Centerstone Investors and serves as the chief investment officer. He previously worked at First Eagle Investment Management with Jean-Marie Eveillard. In this interview, he discusses the opportunities he sees for his two recently introduced value funds.

What are the most important investment implications that you and I and your clients might consider post last week’s election?

What yield-seeking investors need to know about this expanding asset class

For evidence, look no further than sales of bottled water in the first world. Our ancestors spent hundreds of billions of dollars developing the infrastructure to deliver potable water to every home, yet we spend billions each year to purchase bottled versions of what we can get for free almost anywhere. Boom – I just blew up the very foundation of economics.

Emerging market assets have come under heavy pressure, particularly in Mexico and China, which have also sagged under the specter of rising U.S. trade protectionism. But rather than focus on Trump’s campaign talk, watch his actions.

In July, fund managers' had their highest exposure to bonds in 3-1/2 years. In other words, they expected yields to keep falling.

Jeffrey Gundlach was the only prominent financial professional to predict Donald Trump’s victory. Yesterday, he revealed how he made that call.

Previously, I analyzed the performance of some of the leading and largest actively managed mutual funds that focus on high-dividend strategies. Today, I’ll examine the strategy of investing in companies that have shown persistent growth in dividends.

My earliest recollection of economic sanctions was in 1984 … during apartheid years.