Three recent events had a meaningful impact on me. They illustrated the devastating consequences of inadequate life insurance. I want to share them with you.
As we’ll see, a great deal will happen in the first third of the year that could (and likely will) radically change the course of events in the last two-thirds. Furthermore, the possible outcomes are in the hands of inherently unpredictable individual humans otherwise known as politicians (and not just in the US, thank you very much!) instead of dispassionate market forces. Fancy quantitative models will be of little help.
The fourth quarter of 2016 was a profitable period for globally diversified multi asset managers. All major domestic large cap indices were up for both the quarter and the year.
Instead of trying to answer questions about the future, I’ll try to list those we should be asking as 2017 opens. These are the things that I sit and meditate about when I consider the future of economics, markets, and investing. Today’s economy is something like an old-fashioned Swiss watch. It’s a thing of beauty when all those delicate little gears mesh just right. If you ever take the time to actually study the inner workings of the marvelous manifestations of human ingenuity that keep us all alive, it is difficult not to come away awestruck by the ability of the human mind to craft such complexity. But if any of the gears get just a little out of whack, the entire contraption can grind to a halt.
As we head into the New Year, I want to share with you the six most popular Frank Talk posts of 2016. Before I do that, however, I think it’s important to note one recurring theme I write about that continues to help our investment team and shareholders better understand the movement in commodities and energy: the purchasing managers’ index (PMI).
During his campaign, Trump took a restrictive trade stance that could hurt export-reliant countries in Asia—particularly China. But with continued rebalancing and a regional focus, Stefan Scheurer, economist with Allianz Global Investors, says China's influence in Asia could grow even bigger.
Volatility in the market can make profitable investing a tricky task. It is important to understand the different investment options and the associated risks. With new research challenging traditional investing fundamentals, it is more important than ever to look at which strategies are available and how they can help create a diverse, flexible portfolio.
I’ve previously written articles about two separate techniques for improving retirement outcomes: the use of SPIAs and smoothing of year-to-year withdrawals. In this article I investigate ways to combine SPIAs and smoothing to produce even better outcomes. I’ll then broaden the discussion and briefly explain how SPIAs and smoothing fit into the wider context of ways to improve retirement outcomes.
John Hathaway is chairman of Tocqueville Management Corporation, the general partner of Tocqueville Management L.P. He co-manages the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX). I spoke with John on December 9
We assess three global economic scenarios for 2017.
Donald Trump’s largely unexpected victory of the U.S. presidential election echoed the Brexit vote of just six months prior, reinforcing an ongoing fundamental shift in political currents and capital markets around the globe.
While on the surface the Italian Referendum appears to be only about the structure of government power and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s desire to pass economic reforms, beneath the surface is a serious financial issue that has the potential to impact not just Italy, but Europe and beyond. This may sound small and meaningless to you and me but it is not.
Your business name is your firm’s first impression to the public and potential clients. Choosing a name is a critically important decision and choosing a good one drives revenue. Choosing a confusing name or one that is hard to understand will lead to spending as much time explaining your company name as in finding new clients.
Next Tuesday will mark four weeks since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his surprise demonetization announcement that has sent shockwaves throughout the South Asian country’s economy.
Over the last 7.5 years, the Case-Shiller national home price index has increased 24.9% on a cumulative basis. But I have argued in numerous articles that that figure is grossly overstated. A new RealtyTrac report supports my claim, and shows the actual number is only 16%.
The First Eagle Global Income Builder Fund (FEBIX) seeks to provide meaningful and stable income that persists over time and holds its value in real terms. It has approximately $1.2 billion in assets and is a leading performer in its Morningstar peer group. I spoke with two of its co-managers, Kimball Brooker and Edward Meigs.
The question now is whether Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will put the brakes on the so-called Trump rally. She asserts that Fed policy is not politically motivated, but I wonder how many people actually believe that. She’s already criticized Trump’s plans to tear up or at least significantly weaken Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform.
In Italy’s December 4 referendum, voters will approve or reject the country’s most extensive constitutional reforms since the monarchy was abolished at the end of World War II.
I’m going to depart from the normal format of my letters, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do.
Today’s income hungry world underscores the need to dig into free cash flow and payout ratios to avoid yield traps.
After years of deriding the airline industry, Warren Buffett confirmed this week that his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has invested nearly $1.3 billion in four big-name domestic carriers: American, Delta, United and Southwest.
The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 provides the best recent precedent for the unexpected triumph of Donald Trump...
Back in September we explained how US treasury yields were at parity with foreign government bonds for many foreign investors (namely euro and yen-based investors) from a currency hedged basis.
My earliest recollection of economic sanctions was in 1984 … during apartheid years.
As the election results were confirmed late Tuesday night in the United States (around midday Wednesday in Asia), there was a pretty violent reaction in many markets and across asset classes and regions. Michael Hasenstab, CIO of Templeton Global Macro, opines on the drivers and meaning of today’s market twists and turns.
Stunned political analysts are missing the most plausible argument explaining Donald Trump's unexpected victory. The misreading of the American electorate stems from the political class' acceptance of mistaken (and increasingly insane) economic dogma that has arisen over the past generation.
A review of the month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
I’m starting this memo a week before Election Day. I promise to try to stay away from the merits of the candidates and the question of who will win, and instead confine myself to the important messages that we should take away from the election and the actions we should push for as a result. The outcome of tomorrow’s election won’t change these things as far as I’m concerned.
Election 2016 will have consequences for the economy and financial markets. Colin Moore looks at six election issues investors need to be aware of — regardless of who wins.
Has the institution of the Nobel Prize in economics been a cause of the global economic woes of the last 20 years – its financial crises, its economic slowdowns and its increasing intra-national inequalities? In their recent book, The Nobel Factor: The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy, and the Market Turn, authors Avner Offer and Gabriel Söderberg make a good, if somewhat haphazard, case that it has.
Markets are once again facing a proverbial wall of worry, built of political uncertainty, populism, and fiscal and monetary policy concerns. Although the market’s ascent is not likely to be straight up (it never is), we are cautiously optimistic that the wall can be surmounted.
Robert Reich, a prominent Democrat, and Alan Simpson, a distinguished Republican, engaged in a friendly debate to discuss issues that they said were not addressed during this campaign season. But on crucial subjects, both relied on out-of-date and inaccurate reasoning.
Understanding asset class correlation patterns is key to understanding true portfolio risk factor exposures and the embedded assumptions that inform investment decisions.
Wasatch Advisors has been investing in India for well over a decade. We hope this paper will illuminate why we remain excited about the investment opportunities there.
Today we’ll look at the remarkable results the Cleveland Clinic has already achieved with its 100,000+ employees and dependents and with numerous corporations they work with. They are making people healthier and reducing medical costs. It is a model that I think could work on a much broader scale.
Although bad for your pocketbook and savings, the possibility of higher taxes is expected to increase interest in tax-free municipal bonds, especially among top earners. For over a year now, muni bond funds have seen positive weekly inflows, with $147 million going in during the week ended October 17. I expect this trend to continue as we head closer to the election, and beyond.
Metals investors wonder what this presidential election will mean for gold and silver markets. Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and the years of price inflation that followed, presidents have largely ignored gold, the Federal Reserve, and other issues related to sound money.
In the context of investing, the term 'sustainability' lacks sharply defined boundaries. This broad label tends to create more confusion than clarity, prompting some advisors to simply skip it and move on.
Two weekend articles, in major US newspapers, left us shaking our heads. The Washington Post wrote that "economic growth actually kills people," while The Wall Street Journal published a piece saying, ironically, we should get used to slow growth - it's normal.
Those of us in the estate planning industry often have the unique role of helping our clients decide who will handle their affairs when they become incapacitated or pass away. Choosing a successor trustee is an emotional and difficult decision for the client, but those of us assisting them sometimes do not take it seriously enough.
Just as April showers bring May flowers, plentiful monsoon rains in India tend to drive up demand for gold jewelry among rural, income-flush farmers, who make up a third of the country’s consumption of the yellow metal. It’s a relief to hear, then, that India just had its best monsoon season in three years, with heavy rains washing away people’s fears of yet another drought.
As a young Army paratrooper, much of my training was focused on learning to operate under chaotic circumstances. The battlefield is nothing if not chaotic, especially in the pitch black of night, which is how we often trained.
Today, let’s take a look at the most recent market valuations. Hint and not a surprise: both stocks and bonds remain expensively priced. Value? Not today. Especially in the bond market.
Building a reliable network of COIs is one of the surest ways to engage with new prospects and grow your practice. Here’s a step-by-stop process to expand your list of COIs – including some who you probably didn’t think were potential referral sources.
When comparing strategies for coordinating home equity with portfolio distributions to generate retirement income, the tenure option fairs well. As a way to fund retirement efficiency improvements, using the tenure payment option from the line of credit as an alternative to purchasing a SPIA or DIA is worth exploring further.
There’s no other way to say it: Gold had a bad week. On Tuesday alone, the yellow metal fell more than 3 percent, shuffling off $43, in its biggest one-day loss in three years. It broke below the psychologically important $1,300 mark and touched the 200-day moving average before rising again today.
It was a profitable period for well-diversified multi-asset strategic investors in global equity markets.
The end of U.S. dollar dominance may be unfolding in front of our eyes. No, we don't think China's ascent is the key threat; instead, key to understanding the U.S. dollar may be to understand the money market fund you might hold.
