Economic changes have made future planning increasingly difficult for government retirement systems, private pension plans, and individual investors. How do you generate a reliable income stream for an uncertain but potentially lengthy lifespan in a world where interest rates are barely above zero and possibly below it?

Exploring the survey that is the current cause for concern.

With a resurfacing in trade tensions and persistent economic uncertainties, investors should prepare for further volatility.

As the financial markets enter what I expect to be a rather disruptive completion to the recent speculative half-cycle, it will be helpful for investors to consider certain propositions that are readily available from history, rather than insisting on re-learning them the hard way.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

Acknowledging that losses are part of business is one thing; taking and accepting those losses in the markets is something else entirely.

Testing times for relations in this challenging epoch.

In the past three years, oil and gas discoveries made by conventional means have fallen to an incredible seven-decade low. What’s more, a “significant rebound is not expected,” says IHS Markit. Find out what’s driving discoveries lower!

With $13 trillion of investment grade corporate and government bonds having negative yields, fixed income investors are increasingly looking at higher yielding emerging market debt.

A classic approach to economic theory suggests low GDP growth in the years to come. Why and what to do about it is what this month’s Absolute Return Letter is about. Next month, we’ll look at the impact of advanced robotics – why a rapidly ageing workforce might not be the problem it is often portrayed as. Could robots simply replace humans in the work process?

History shows that presidential impeachments have had minimal impact on markets. We believe there are bigger risks to consider, including a potential German recession and record global debt. Against this background, gold can help improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.

I would like to credit my good friend Jeff Miller for providing the inspiration for this article. In his recent article titled “Weighing The Week Ahead: Falling Confidence A Possible Threat To Markets” he suggested a must read article by Safal Niveshak titled “Why Value Investing Works.”

“I think gold is in a good place,” Pierre Lassonde, co-founder of Franco-Nevada, said this week at the Denver Gold Forum. Looking ahead 30 years, Pierre believes the yellow metal could average $12,500 an ounce—and may even hit $25,000!

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this week to set monetary policy. It’s widely expected that the FOMC will lower the federal funds target range by another 25 basis points, although that’s not a done deal.

Stocks have climbed higher but we don’t recommend attempting to trade around short-term moves; rather, investors should remain disciplined and diversified, and use any volatility to rebalance as needed. The consumer continues to drive the economy, while weakness is mostly still concentrated in manufacturing. Yet, the potential for volatility remains, as a comprehensive trade deal is not in sight, tariffs on consumer goods are still set to kick in on December 15, and monetary policy’s ability to spur growth and inflation may be waning. We continue to favor large caps over small caps and are neutral to U.S. and global equities.

This paper provides a closer look at one of Smith Capital Investors’ key themes for 2019. Specifically, it looks at the potential impact of CEO/CFO behaviors around debt, and the persistent search for the “perfect capital structure.”

Trade fears, social unrest in Hong Kong and Brexit uncertainties weighed on markets in August. Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity expects continued volatility, but an interest-rate cut from the US central bank in September could help stabilize emerging market currencies.

Interest rates are falling and with that comes a series of problems investors must confront. There are the obvious implications, like lower returns from bonds. But the more pernicious harm will come from thee failure to properly adapt financial plans to current market conditions.

The economic calendar is normal with an emphasis on the consumer. Both PPI and CPI data will be reported, but little change is expected. Central bank fans will have to make do with the ECB Thursday announcement.

In our experience, family-owned private firms and small-to-medium sized public companies are most likely to borrow responsibly and prioritize bondholders ahead of other investors.

I am a value investor, and all my investments are made with a long-term objective in mind. Consequently, I am a believer that time in the market is often what matters most. However, I will qualify that remark by saying that you also make your money on the buy side.

Value investing is poised to dominate growth investing based on a historical comparison of valuation metrics. The gulf between the P/E ratios of value growth and growth stocks has never been this wide.

A dollar in secular decline may be the final piece in the puzzle that shows the insanity of our current fiscal and monetary policy. The U.S. bubble economy rests on the foundation of the dollar's status as the reserve currency. If that status is lost, the entire house of cards may just come crashing down.

For fiscal year 2020, the federal budget deficit is expected to hit a massive $1 trillion—the first time in U.S. history that it will have expanded so rapidly in a time of peace and economic stability.

Investment opportunities arise amid trade-related market disruption.

There is an old tongue-in-cheek market adage that says that portfolio managers are “never wrong, but sometimes they are early.” Well, in our case, that expression was flipped -- We were exactly right, but late.

Incorporating actuarial methodology and the popular floor-and-upside approach to financial planning, I show how advisors can help their retired (or soon-to-be retired) clients make better financial decisions.

With the dollar remaining strong, Chris discusses whether it makes sense to hedge currencies for international investing.

Events of the last several weeks have not changed our long-term outlook, but we have become a bit more cautious in the short term.

“Quality” stocks are said to offer a measure of portfolio stability ― a trait that becomes more valuable when markets are volatile and/or the business cycle is growing older. Both are true today. Tony DeSpirito offers his take on investing for quality.

As the topic of recession remains top of mind for many investors, now is the opportune time to consider preparing your portfolio in the event of a pullback.

The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

What I really think has happened is that given the years of quantitative easing, exceptionally low interest rates, low inflation, etc. what we have is a new “toolbox” and we do not know what “tools” to use in quantifying the current economic, bond market, and stock market environments.

Investors are suddenly much more concerned about the political transition in Argentina. The country’s stock of debt is large but not unmanageable, with a path to avoid default and to boost growth in sight.

Investors who have watched the U.S. stock market over the last decade might be wondering whether the appeal of value stocks has been whittled away by a long run of underperformance.

The economic calendar is normal, featuring housing starts, retail sales, and Michigan sentiment. The CPI will be important someday, but only when it breaks the recent path of gentle increases. With summer vacations in full swing (even Congress is on a five-week recess) the punditry turns to tried and true topics...

Gold headed for its best week in nearly two months as the value of negative-yielding debt touched a new record of $15 trillion. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2 percent, pushing gold above $1,500 an ounce for the first time since September 2013.

What distinguishes an overvalued market that continues to advance from an overvalued market that often drops like a rock? In my view, it’s the psychological disposition of investors toward speculation or risk-aversion.

Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching.

The economic calendar is one of the smallest of the year. With last week’s market decline and increased volatility, pundits who are not on a summer vacation can do some navel-gazing and reconsider their conclusions. Or not.

The most common complaint that I have heard from investors over my 49+ years in the financial services industry is as follows: “Everyone wants to tell me what to buy and when, but no one ever tells me when to sell.”

In May the Congressional Budget office (CBO) updated its 10-year fiscal estimates for federal revenue, spending, and annual deficits through 2029. The CBO is a non partisan agency tasked with analyzing data to provide Congress estimates for GDP growth and the impact on government spending and revenue from changes in tax laws.

Say what you will about this past week, it certainly wasn’t dull. The Federal Reserve, seemingly capitulating to President Donald Trump and Wall Street, became just the latest central bank to cut interest rates.

Expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates has been a primary factor driving investor sentiment and actions in recent months. It should be noted, though, that the considerations and actions of the Fed are part of a complex ecosystem that has financial, political and behavioral components that come with considerable uncertainty.

Over the last 18-months, there has been a continual drone of political punditry touting the success of “Trumponomics” as measured by various economic data points. Even the President himself has several times taken the opportunity to tweet about the “strongest economy ever.”

Mixing vegetables together may be fine for food (although it’s not my favorite), but it’s nonsense in the investment world. When you hire a money manager (e.g., a mutual fund), do you really care how good his or her sibling managers are if he or she is awful? Do your due diligence on the fund, not the family.

The outperformance of defensive sectors relative to cyclicals is looking extreme in Europe, suggesting the macro trade around bond-sensitive stocks may have stretched too far.

The national debt and deficits remain at worrisome levels, spawning questions of how economic growth will be affected and whether we will hit another wall.

The economic calendar is massive, and that is just the start. Earnings season is in full swing. US/China trade talks resume. And finally, the FOMC announces its interest rate decisions.