We are simply not prepared for a world in which old people outnumber the young. But it may be coming, thanks to life extension at the upper end and falling fertility rates below. National pension systems—what we call Social Security in the US but similar elsewhere—are not designed for that combination. They presume a high ratio of working young to retired old citizens. That is no longer happening and is increasingly hard to ignore.

Just in time for Hanukkah and Christmas, silver is on sale, trading at a little more than $14 an ounce. That’s the most affordable the white metal’s been in three years. Gifting your kids and grandkids coins made of precious metals such as gold or silver could end up becoming a fun new tradition in your family.

Of all the delusions that have infected the minds of economists, central bankers, and the investing public in recent years, perhaps none is as short-sighted and pernicious as the idea that aggressively low interest rates are “good” for the economy and the financial markets.

As an insurance consultant to RIAs, I review legacy annuities. Every case is unique, but often I’m reminded why commission-based annuities are one of the biggest violators of consumer value within financial services.

Natural gas storage in the lower 48 states was below the five-year average as of October 31, according to the EIA. This, combined with a stronger-than-expected start to winter, prompted traders to push prices to a four-year high of $4.84 per MBtu. Meanwhile, natural gas futures trading hit an all-time daily volume record of 1.2 million contracts.

As I have pointed out previously, the U.S. is currently running a nearly $1 Trillion dollar deficit during an economic expansion. This is completely contrary to the Keynesian economic theory.

Introduction This current series of articles could be summarized as a review of ways to construct and diversify a common stock portfolio. In part 1 found here I discussed various viewpoints on how many stocks a portfolio should hold. In Part 2A found here I presented and discussed Peter Lynch’s 6 general categories of stocks.

Starting today, the five-day festival known as Diwali—literally, “a row of lights”—will be observed by millions of Hindus, Sikhs and Jains worldwide. A celebration of good triumphing over evil, the festival typically coincides with the Hindu new year.

After the meeting on September 26 the FOMC published its dot plot and the expected path for the federal funds rate through the end of 2020. If all goes according to this script the federal funds rate will be raised in December, three more times in 2019...

Speaking with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker this week, Taleb said the reason why he has reservations about today’s economy is that it suffers from the “same disease” as before. The meltdown in 2007 was a “crisis of debt,” and if anything, the problem has only worsened.

Asset price inflation (check). Financed by debt growth (check). We’ve spent the last three weeks reviewing Ray Dalio’s A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises. I hope you found the insights as helpful as I did.

As we enter another period of accelerated Brexit negotiations, how can investors best navigate the next few weeks and months? Our assessment is that a number of U.K. assets have already priced in a significant chance of a disruptive Brexit, but there is scope for further moves in either direction, depending on the path the negotiations take.

Quick – what was the second-worst U.S. stock market drop since the 1930s? What caused it? It wasn’t the pricking of the tech bubble in the early 2000s. It was the bursting of the oil bubble in 1973. Fossil fuels have been the life blood of economic growth for the entire time that economies have been growing – almost 200 years – and they have been responsible for many of their ups and downs.

According to a recent Cornerstone Macro report, the three most influential macro trends this year have been 1) the strengthening U.S. dollar, 2) the flattening yield curve and 3) slowing global manufacturing expansion.

As the quarter ends, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices, fueled by growth stocks’ appreciation, are at all-time historical highs, dominating the return from global investing. While the MSCI ACWI rose more than 3.5% for the quarter and 2% for the year, the MSCI ACWI-ex US was flat for the quarter and declined more than 5% year-to-date.

One of the biggest threats clients face in retirement is chasing higher investment income. I’ve seen people go back to work because they concentrated on income and lost their principal. Income is the wrong goal, particularly since much of so-called income is just a ruse allowed by regulators.

The price of gold fell back below $1,200 an ounce again this week as the U.S. dollar advanced following another federal funds rate hike. It’s now set to log its sixth straight month of declines, its longest losing streak since 1989.

The idea for this memo came from the seven worst words in the investment world: “too much money chasing too few deals.”

We see growth slowing, but not an imminent recession. We invest accordingly.

The boring truth of financial analysis and portfolio management is that the majority of our days are spent visiting with clients, reading, reading, reading, and when required, making decisions. Years ago it would have included quite a bit of time on a calculator, but thanks to the low cost of computers and software, most of the number crunching can now be completed with the push of button.

Well, “you did it,” as the senior index followed most of the other indices to new all-time highs. We have repeatedly written that this was going to happen given the Advance-Decline Line’s continuing new highs, as well as the stock market’s strong breadth.

In case you couldn’t tell from the ubiquitous political ads and yard signs, midterm elections are right around the corner—46 days from now, to be exact. Historically, volatility has increased and markets have dipped leading up to midterms on uncertainty, but afterward they’ve outperformed.

In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses the funds’ long-term outcomes relative to peers, views on emerging market currencies and recent research centered on momentum.

Behemoths like Amazon and Uber have transformed industries, putting smaller competitors out of business. Could the same fate await smaller financial planners? Many analysts have predicted massive consolidation in our industry, resulting in a landscape where a few “Goliaths” make it impossible for the small “Davids” to compete. Is this thesis accurate and, if so, what should advisors do to protect themselves?

Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina today, bringing with it destruction and calamity, the cost of which could top $170 billion, according to analytics firm CoreLogic. If so, that would make it the costliest storm ever to hit the U.S.

We assume prospects will carefully scrutinize every detail of our appearance, the ideas we present and the depth of our technical knowledge. That’s wrong. Believing the spotlight is on us will cost you prospects and assets.

It won’t be easy and key risks remain, but we believe the players and strategies are now in place to transition markets beyond Libor.

It was neigh on ten years ago, the world was just about half way through the ‘Great Recession’ and I was sending out a newsletter wondering how much lower the Dollar could plunge. The Euro/USD pairing was touching 1.50 at one point. How the times have changed!

With the 10-year anniversary of the onset of the global financial crisis just weeks away, now is a good time to ask where the next global economic crisis might come from. To be clear: We’re not sounding any alarms here. We don’t think a crisis is imminent. But we do like to keep our eyes on the horizon.

In a future of lower expected price appreciation, investors should focus on the second leg of returns: income. ETFs make it incredibly easy to capture diversified sources of higher-yielding assets.

The traditional wholesaler is dying. The future of wholesaling will combine analytics and portfolio construction.

Let’s consider two seemingly conflicting ideas.

1. Major economic pain is coming.

2. We have a bright, prosperous economic future.

Can both of those be right? I think so.

The CFP Board wants its credentials to be a mandatory requirement for all advisers who hold themselves out as financial planners. If its lobbying efforts to this end are successful, the Board would then become the de facto regulator of the financial planning profession, which is the organization’s goal. But the Board’s disingenuous position on the fiduciary standard and its long history of putting its own interests ahead of those of consumers and its members make the Board decidedly unfit for this role.

Turkey has become a major topic of interest. A 2017 constitutional referendum gave the president sweeping powers, and President Erdogan won re-election in June 2018. Since then, an economic crisis has developed, with falling financial asset prices and a sharp currency decline.

I see some major problems coming in the 2020s (and perhaps a bit sooner), but I also see a lot of good things happening right now. The economic recovery, while still weak by historic standards, is gaining some momentum that ought to carry it forward for another year or two, assuming (as I perhaps naïvely do) that we can put this trade war thing to rest. That’s good news because it buys us time to prepare for worse times, but it’s also just plain good news.

My good friend Marc Lichtenfeld from the Oxford Club has always been savvy in following such strategies. I invite you to learn from his investment journey in this special Q&A.

Dispute could be a setback for productivity, affecting consumers globally.

The number of publicly listed companies in the U.S. has fallen steadily since 1997. More companies have delisted, in fact, than gone public in every year of the past 20 years except one, 2013. Put another way, the pool is getting smaller even while the population and economy are expanding.

In this issue, Research Affiliates discusses positioning in emerging markets and why investors should care about the distinction between real and nominal returns.

This has been an unusually fruitful season for books for and about financial planners. Four absolute masters of the financial planning universe have published books that add to your chances of success as you grow your business and career.

Last month in Venezuela’s capital city of Caracas, a cup of coffee would have set you back 2 million bolivars. That’s up from only 2,300 bolivars 12 months ago, meaning the price of a cup of joe has jumped nearly 87,000 percent, according to Bloomberg’s Café Con Leche Index. And you thought Starbucks was expensive.

How are today’s fixed income managers integrating ESG factors into their investment practices? Learn what our latest ESG survey reveals.

Infrastructure is not a glamorous topic — it isn’t satirized on late-night TV, nor is it trending on social media. But the need for increased infrastructure investment is real across the globe. Given expected demographic trends, disruption by new technology and insufficient spending in the past, we at Invesco Real Estate believe infrastructure-related companies could be poised for decades of growth.

Roboadvisors don’t cause fee compression; when used correctly by advisors, they are the solution.

What we can learn about the current state of our economy by traveling and visiting with others outside of our home turf is amazing. For many of us in the investment business, our view of the economy is easily warped by statistical reports and interpretations prepared by professional economists.

Looking spiffy for work as an advisor doesn’t mean taking out a second mortgage on your home. Here are some high-end brand picks that I saw at my local Goodwill store.

If your brand is failing to connect with affluent prospects, here’s a glimpse inside their minds.

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

Of the 14 major commodities we track at U.S. Global Investors, oil was the standout performer, gaining roughly 23 percent, followed by nickel (up 16.76 percent) and wheat (16.51 percent).