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The Euro Goes Negative
The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to charge a negative interest on overnight deposits is not going to lead to a higher targeted inflation rate, despite ECB President Mario Draghi's insistence that it will. Like all cases of central planning, this decision will have unintended and costly consequences - some of which are already starting to play out. In this particular case, instead of stimulating business lending or higher prices, the decision will only stimulate the increased buying of insolvent government debt - leading us all one step closer to the economy's eventual unravelling.
Finding Opportunity in Chinese Reforms
I spent last week in China, meeting with corporate management teams, government officials and investors in the Chinese markets. One of my motivations for making the trip was to get a better sense of the speed and scope of government reforms. It was a fascinating week, but I cant say that I came away with sweeping, definitive clarity.
Outlook on the US Dollar, Currencies & Markets: Look Out Below!
by Axel Merk of Merk Investments,
The FIFA World Cup and market predictions have in common that we are tempted to create a world of make-believe when it comes to predicting outcomes. While others ponder about the meaning of a round ball, well focus on the implications of a make-believe world comprised of ever-higher asset prices. Our caution: look out below!
Euro-Sterling Credit: Yield and Spread Still Appeal
by Ketish Pothalingam of PIMCO,
Framed by ongoing renormalisation in Europe and stronger UK growth, euro-sterling investment grade credit markets are in a favourable part of their respective cycles as corporates continue to deleverage, default rates are expected to remain low ahead and market liquidity has improved across Europe. We believe the sterling credit market provides a more balanced credit market and offers investors the opportunity for better total carry versus euro and global investment grade credit markets.
Fed Outlook: Playing It Close to the Vest
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this week to set monetary policy. The FOMC is widely expected to further taper the monthly pace of asset purchases (not on a preset path, but continuing in measured steps). The bigger question is when the Fed will begin to raise short-term interest rates. The correct answer is it depends. Fed officials are currently debating the order of steps to be taken as they begin to normalize monetary policy.
Gundlach: A Big Moment for the Economy and the Markets
by Robert Huebscher,
The benchmark 10-year Treasury bond is an attractive investment, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, although its yield is likely to stay between 2.2% and 2.8% for the remainder of the year. Despite that narrow range, Gundlach foresees pivots in other parts of the investment landscape.
When Delegating Leads to More Stress
I have been trying to delegate more of human-resources responsibilities to my operations manager. However, my operations manager has made two poor hires in the last six months. I can't delegate if I can't ensure that things are done well. I'm inclined to take back these responsibilities unless you tell me otherwise.
Retirement Income Strategies: How to Improve on the 4% Rule
by Joe Tomlinson,
In the past few years, the 4% rule has been challenged by those who claim its premise of 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawals is too optimistic under today's market conditions. Others assert that more sophisticated approaches will yield better-than-4% results. I'll evaluate two alternatives - economic utility maximization and required minimum distributions - and also discuss the practical implications for advisors.
Some Gold Indicators to Watch
by Ade Odunsi of AdvisorShares,
With recent sharp falls in the price volatility of a wide range of assets including gold and the markets apparent insensitivity to macroeconomic news, many gold investors have shifted focus to some of the more widely watched gold technical indicators to see if they provide insight into the future direction of the gold price. In this weeks short discussion piece we look at the Gold Forward Offered Rate (GOFO), the US inflation adjusted (real) interest rate and the Gold/S&P500 ratio.
Gold Investors: Let This Cycle Be Your Guide
U.S. Global Investors recently welcomed Doug Peta, an economist from BCA research, to our offices. He presented some interesting research regarding the Fed Funds Rate Cycle, and in turn, what that research could mean for gold. I wanted to share points from his presentation, as well as our own in-house research, to help you understand the positivity we see for the precious metal looking towards 2015.
The Age of Transformation
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Today I offer some musings on what Ive come to think of as the Age of Transformation (which I have been thinking about a lot while in Tuscany). I believe there are multiple and rapidly accelerating changes happening simultaneously (if you can think of 10 years as simultaneously) that are going to transform our social structures, our investment portfolios, and our personal futures. We have had such transformations in the past. The rise of the nation state, the steam engine, electricity, the advent of the social safety net, the personal computer, the internet, and the collapse of communis
Taking A “FUN” Look At Kimberly-Clark
by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Kimberly-Clark is a storied company and often a reasonable investment opportunity based on ordinary metrics. Frequently investors view these few basic metrics and come to an investment decision. With this article we would like to highlight additional fundamental data on this specific company that that might be useful.
The US Economy The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
As is true more often than not, there are mixed signals in the economy. There are indeed some green shoots emerging that suggest the economy is finally gaining some momentum. Yet there are also continued troubling signs that, while not warning of an impending recession, suggest that we could be stuck in a structural period of continued below-trend growth.
And That's The Week That Was...
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Let the summer partying begin. With the ECB alerting its Fed counterparts (and investors everywhere) that its policymakers will take whatever measures necessary to aid its economy and combat deflation, stocks again moved to record levels on key indexes and even the small-cappers recovered from the perpetual April slide and turned "in the black" for the year. The manufacturing and labor sectors appears to have put the winter storms behind them and even the consumer has shown signs of thawing out in time for the summer. Vacation anyone?
Everybody’s Unhappy?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
If the equity markets don’t experience a sell-off this week, we can probably assume the SPX is in its final upside “blow-off” stage on a trading basis. In such a stage the markets make it seem unbearable to be in too much cash, or worse, totally out of the market. Blow-offs usually end with a parabolic peak and often with a buying climax. If you want to see what a buying climax looks like, go look at the “selling climax” at the March 2009 lows and turn the chart upside down. Longer-term, I continue to hold the belief we are in a secular bull market, but in the sho
Can Central Planners Revive Chinas Economic Miracle?
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
We are going to try gamely to finish with China today, having left at least three or four letters worth of copy on the editing floor. There is just so much information and misinformation to cover. Im going to turn it over to Worth and then follow up with a few final thoughts of my own.
China Leads the World in Green Energy, Gaming and Gambling Markets
Last month, Xian Liang, co-portfolio manager of our China Region Fund (USCOX), attended the 19th CLSA China Forum in Beijing. There he and hundreds of other global attendees were given the opportunity to meet with representatives from Chinese corporations, some of which U.S. Global owns. Xian also managed to get a sense of how the nation?s recent changes in consumer behavior and governmental policy reforms might affect its investment outlook. Although China remains an emerging market, it has lately taken a number of considerable strides to position itself as one of the world?s most
Snow Job
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
Economists, investment analysts, and politicians have spent much of 2014 bemoaning the terrible economic effects of the winter of 2014. The cold and snow have been continuously blamed for the lackluster job market, disappointing retail sales, tepid business investment and, most notably, much slower than expected GDP growth. Given how optimistic many of these forecasters had been in the waning months of 2013, when the stock market was surging into record territory and the Fed had finally declared that the economy had outgrown the need for continued Quantitative Easing, the weather was an absolu
Retail Apocalypse and Negative GDP Point to Unsustainable U.S. Stock Market
Evidence continues to pile up that the next recession has already begun, and at the very least, Americans in the lower and middle income brackets are feeling it the most. The United States is running out of steam and is bogged down by trillions of dollars in debt, increased regulation, and fewer jobs. Its like we are all trying to swim upstream in the middle of a biblical flood! The United States isnt coming to an end but it is changing dramatically in front of our eyes.
The 4% Non-Solution
by Kenneth Rogoff of Project Syndicate,
The idea of permanently raising inflation targets to 4%, first proposed by IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard, has been endorsed by a number of other academics, including, most recently, Paul Krugman. Unfortunately, the problem of ensuring a smooth and convincing transition to a new target is perhaps insurmountable.
The Platinum Supply Shock
Even investors who typically eschew precious metals have been hard-pressed to ignore the platinum industry this year. The longest strike in South African history paired with surging Asian demand is set to push the metal back into a physical deficit in 2014 - and could have repercussions for years to come. While gold remains the most conservative choice for saving, the "industrial precious metal" platinum is a compelling investment for those, like me, who are bullish on global net economic growth.
Why Food Prices Are Soaring, Likely To Continue
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Consumer Food Prices Are Skyrocketing 2. 10 Fastest-Rising Food Prices at the Supermarket 3. California is in Big Trouble! So Are We All 4. Drought Monitor Chart For Continental US 5. Incurable Disease Threatens Florida Citrus Crop 6. Latin America Coffee Blight Sends Prices Skyward 7. The Solution to High Prices is High Prices
European challenges and outlook
The constant debate of leading and lagging indicators is one that spills over to the political components as well. The timing of demographic shifting, recent economic events, geopolitical tectonic shifts taking place globally and neo-creative monetary policy have all been pointing to voter sentiment evolving. We have seen this represented in Europe for some time and the recent European Parliament election saw more than sublime results.
Schroders Multi-Asset Insights: What is the forward curve telling us about US Treasury yields?
If central bank liquidity provision and the use of forward guidance has been dampening volatility, then its withdrawal over the coming 12 months could result in an increase in volatility. Arguably the recent flattening of the yield curve is a harbinger of this. Given the gradual path of the reduction in liquidity, this process of normalization could be extended. However, with the mean reverting nature of volatility, we believe it is currently cheap and will normalize upwards over the coming months towards its longer term average of 20. This is why we recommend adding actively managed volatilit
The Value of a Secondary Call to Action
by Sarah Scorgie,
In today's technological world, email has become the easiest way to connect with potential clients. With Web-based email marketing services, it's easier than ever to communicate with leads - but are your calls to action making the most of your campaigns?
Creating a Learning Society
For more than two centuries, innovation has been a critical driver of the global economy, with most of the productivity gains stemming not from major discoveries, but from small, incremental changes. This suggests that we should focus on how societies learn, and what can be done to promote learning including learning how to learn.
What Factor Drove The Market In May?
by Team of GaveKal Capital,
Of the 30 factors that we track, Price to Earnings ratio had the highest correlation to the market in May followed closely correlation to the Euro and 1-month change in sales estimate. For the past year, Price to Book ratio has the highest correlation (0.94).
Corporate Activity Flourishes
With the backdrop of low interest rates, and sluggish revenue growth, 2014 has been the year that M&A activity finally blossomed. Companies are growing more aggressive in their acquisition tactics, leading to many high profile mergers and numerous opportunities to improve profitability.
Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
China has the potential to become a real problem. It seemed to me that almost everyone who addressed the topic was either seriously alarmed at the extent of Chinas troubles or merely very worried. Perhaps it was the particular group of speakers we had, but no one was sanguine. If you recall, a few weeks back I introduced my young colleague and protg Worth Wray to you; and his inaugural Thoughts from the Frontline focused on China, a topic on which he is well-versed, having lived and studied there. Our conversations often center on China and emerging markets (and we tend
From Constantinople to Istanbul, Turkey Has Never Been Better
Every time he travels to Turkey, portfolio manager of our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX), Tim Steinle, says the country continues to develop. Although technically classified as an emerging market, one wouldn?t think to label the country as such upon arrival. The population is young and growing, there are improvements to infrastructure everywhere you look, beautiful green parks are more prevalent, and the professional staffs that run many of the shops and businesses are both well organized and thriving.
How Not To Get Soaked When The Bond Bubble Bursts
As I wrote in my latest Forbes article and in my current weekly column On My Radar, most investors are unaware and ill-prepared for the impact that rising interest rates will have on their bond funds and ETF investments. There has been an unprecedented period of Fed participation (manipulation) with six years of near zero-percent interest rate policy and trillions of newly created currency.
How Tax Savings from a College Savings Plan Could Pay for a Year of College
The option to front-load funding makes a tax-deferred college savings plan is a great way to avoid taxes on the future growth of funds earmarked for higher-education expenses. We project that the taxes avoided over a 10-year savings horizon could pay for a full year of college.
Is There a UK Housing Bubble????
We see the UK experiencing a very traditional monetary cycle involving lower mortgage rates, higher house prices and then hopefully higher transactions. The Bank of England can address rising house prices either by raising financing costs via the banking system or by raising interest rates. Markets will watch BoE activity closely. Our expectation is for a gradual and modest interest rate cycle, with low rates in the UK economy for years to come. Housing may be an overvalued asset, but one that is secularly supported by low rates.
Piketty's Envy Problem
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
There can be little doubt that Thomas Piketty's new book Capital in the 21st Century has struck a nerve globally. In fact, the Piketty phenomenon (the economic equivalent to Beatlemania) has in some ways become a bigger story than the ideas themselves.
Fed Official: We're Sitting On A "Ticking Time Bomb"
It is very rare for high-ranking Fed officials to issue dire warnings, but thats exactly what Charles Plosser the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank did last Tuesday. Mr. Plosser is very concerned about the $2.5 trillion in excess reserves that banks have on deposit with the Fed.
Economy Begins to Accelerate While Equities Push Higher
U.S. equities finished higher last week as the S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, snapping a two-week losing streak and ending at a new record high. Markets seemed to lack conviction, but the path of least resistance appeared skewed to the upside as momentum for the economic recovery was positive.
Kyle Bass: The Looming Crises in Asia
by Robert Huebscher,
For the last several years, nobody has been more outspokenly bearish on Japan than Kyle Bass. In a recent talk, Bass reiterated his doubts about Japan's chances of averting a debt crisis. What's more, he also said China's economy will fall below expectations.
Lacy Hunt: The Dark Side of Debt
by Robert Huebscher,
Lacy Hunt has used econometric research to persuasively demonstrate the statistical relationship between excessive debt and slow economic growth. Although Hunt and I disagree over whether this analysis can be applied to the U.S., our forecasts for growth in the U.S. economy and for the bond markets are remarkably similar.
Mounting Momentum?
Although the stock market remains sluggish, with the potential for a correction elevated, the U.S. economy appears to be improving. There is probably no great rush to get into the stock market at this point, but maintaining a steady investing discipline in the face of what we think is a continuing secular bull market is key. Investors frustrated with the low yield environment should be careful about adding too much risk to a portfolio in search of higher yields.
Results 8,701–8,750
of 10,168 found.
