Brounes & Associates

With a few more days to digest the labor data, investors began the week on another sour note, but a sense of normalcy returned on some other better-than-expected releases. Still, the Feds stimulus remains atop the headlines as speculation runs amuck about how the tapering will play out. Earnings season pushes ahead and, thus far, the results are lackluster at best. Dont forget, as January goes...

To say that 2013 was an interesting year would be a bit of an understatement. We learned a long time ago not to make predictions about the stock market because no matter what is predicted, it is likely to be wrong. Even if we get lucky one year, we are not likely to even get close the following year. We do try to give guidance, however. Last year we suggested that, given the late run in the market in 2012 and its 15% return, investors should be happy with a return of 8 to 10% in 2013. Obviously, investors enjoyed much better returns.

vestors thanked Bernanke this week for what they perceived as an early holiday present. While no one knew how they would react once the Fed began to taper its bond purchases, many surprised analysts by lifting stocks to one of the best showings of the year (and a new record on the Dow). And now that that uncertainty is out of the way, let the vacations begin.

No one deserved a break more than investment guys/gals (except maybe politicos). Unfortunately, Thanksgiving holiday was too "short and sweet" for many and the economic week that followed was crazy. Number after number depicted an economy on solid ground with strong confirmation from the late-week labor releases. Investors took profits throughout much of the week as the final month of the year began, but the Bulls were back in force to conclude the week.

And stocks just keep rolling along. November ended with another bang as the Blue Chips climbed 3.5% for the month and The Dow Jones extended its weekly winning streak to eight. But did anyone even notice? Happy Thanksgivukkah.

Up, up, and away. Stocks surged for the sixth straight week, the S&P 500s longest such streak since February 2013, as institutional investors welcomed remarked from the future Fed Chair (?) and "mom and pops" finally decided to join in the fun (better late than never). Suddenly Dow 16k, Nasdaq 4k, and, heck, even S&P 2k are well within reach. What financial debacle?

Data keeps coming fast and furious and (for the most part) it has been favorable. Investors remain torn between being ecstatic about the solid recovery or worried about the implications for another Fed move. Stocks were mixed throughout the week with the Dow Jones staying in record territory. Is that worth a Tweet (now that its public)?

Nice to have a week free of politico rhetoric and distractions for a change (dont get used to it). With little in the way of budget battles, investors focused on earnings and generally liked what they saw. Add in some positive economic news from China and a labor picture that should prompt the Fed to stay put (for now) and you have another record for the S&P.

The gov is back in biz (so get back to work). Investors were pleased (for now).

The gov is closed for business. Nuff said. (But help may be on the wayor not?)

An obsession with Fed policy; troubles in Syria; new concerns in DCand yet the market kept rolling (for a while).

The gov is closed for business. Nuff said. Coming up in the week ahead: ISM Fed Minutes (Wednesday) Retail Sales (Friday), PPI (Friday)or maybe not.

Move over Ben BernankeTed Cruz has the floor. (Somehow investors seem more interested when Dr. B speaks.) With politicos facing debates on debt ceilings and budget funding, few have confidence that they can act reasonably and with compromise (and the Cruz debacle did not help matters). Stocks fell over five consecutive days as portfolio managers set up positions for the next quarter. Labor and manufacturing releases highlight a hectic week on the economic calendar, but shenanigans from DC may steal the headlines.

Hail the Almighty Fed. Despite a rather hectic week on the economic calendar, investors instead focused primarily on news from the Federal Reserve. They rejoiced the end of Summers campaign for Chair and further rejoiced another Fed meeting with far more words than action. The week ended with profit-taking and plenty of uncertainty heading into the homestretch of the year.

A couple of holidays during the week prompted some light volume and volatility as investors were forced to digest a slew of key economic releases and some potentially concerning geopolitical developments on a limited work schedule. In the end, investors took advantage of bargains leftover from a poor August, but many still maintain the same uncertainties that caused the pullback in the first place. Syria and the Fedthe headlines should be around for the foreseeable future.

When the Fed talks, people listen (and it doesnt even have to be Bernanke). This week, a few key policymakers (not named Bernanke) expressed their views that the bond buying program may begin to be tapered this year, perhaps as early as the September meeting. Some investors used the opportunity to sell stocks and book some profits, though news from China eased certain concerns that the global economy was on shaky ground.

After a week like this, everyone needs a vacation. Big Oil led the earnings trail and the results were not pretty. Europe and China both expressed nice signs for their previously weaker manufacturing sectors. At home, the labor results were mixed, manufacturing looked solid, the consumer remained active, and Michael delayed the vote yet again.

So now Prez Obama is sharing his two cents about the economy. After weeks of endless babble from the Fed Chief and his partners in crime about the economy and the longevity of the bond buying program, O is now making job creation his number one priority. Is anyone listening to his urgent messages (certainly no one in DC)? Investors (at least those not on vacation) were less than impressed with the less than impressive earnings of the week, though markets held their own.

Well, at least, the Tigers are leading the AL Central. The city of Detroit filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection this week and pension owners and creditors are lining up to ask for pennies on the dollars on unpaid moneys owed. Detroit officially becomes the largest city in US history to file for such protection as it continues to suffer from a falling tax base after losing 250k residents between 2000 and 2010.

After weeks of naysaying and fear-mongering about the Fed, investors finally embraced news from Bernanke and friends and equities moved back into record-setting territory. While most accept the fact that the Fed has entered the beginning-of-the-end of its bond-buying stimuli, the minutes from the latest policy meeting and a few comforting comments from Dr. B. himself helped calm the masses that the program would not end yesterday.

What is the Fed actually saying? The economy is recovering; the labor market is improving; short-term interest rates should remain low until at least 2015; the bond buying program will continue in its current form; any winding down (tapering) of purchases will be contingent on steady growth; the policymakers would be prepared to ramp up buying if conditions warrant. What have many investors been hearing/thinking?

When Ben Bernanke talksactually he doesnt even have to talk to move the markets. For the past few weeks, investors have speculated about the next Fed moves and the possibility of a tapering of the $85 billion a month bond purchase program, perhaps as early as next week. Markets have been jittery (to put it mildly) as global stocks have fallen (thanks Japan) and international bond rates have been on the rise. Investors began over-analyzing each economic release, each comment by a Fed official, each forecast by a regulatory body or related agency.

And the streak continues. (The monthly winning streak that is.) While stocks have drifted lower each of the past two weeks, the Dow has surged for six straight months and the S&P 500 now stands at seven and counting. In fact, much of the weeks losses came in the final hour(s) of trading as investors took profits for the month and positioned their portfolios for the summer. No news from the Fed yet, but the bond debates continue. Housing remains strong on the economic front, but next weeks data will go a long way toward setting the tone for the future.

All good things must come to an end (hopefully just temporarily). After a nice month-long weekly winning streak, stocks gave back some ground as investors over-analyzed Fed comments and worried about future monetary policy. (The stimulus will end at some pointthats not necessarily a bad thing.) Japan took the over-analysis the hardest as its market suffered a serious setback, though the rally for the year had been significant and some watchers expected a pullback at some point (just not all in one day).

Four times a charm. Despite lackluster earnings and economic data that raises some concerns, investors continue to play the game of how high can we go and stocks climbed for the fourth straight week With 15k (Dow) and 1600 (S&P) well in the rearview mirror, investors seem to have their targets set on bigger and better things. Some bullish comments by a hedge manager; a solid consumer sentiment reading; a reason for the Fed to hold off on tapering its bond buying stimulusand its off to the races for equities (again).

Fiscal Cliff. Sequester. Different names for similar budgetary issues that both basically resulted in games of Congressional kick the can. Now in a stroke of luck for non-compromising politicos, the budget deficit is shrinking as higher payroll taxes and paybacks from previously bailed out entities (thanks Fan) have enhanced government revenues since the beginning of the year.

The trend is your friend (and the current trend is a friend with benefits for investors). After a record-setting first quarter for stocks, analysts were skeptical that the party would continue. And yet, the Dow Jones enjoyed a fifth straight month of gains in April, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq one-upped the Blue Chips with six month winning streaks.

The end to another tax season; a hectic week on the earnings calendar; a number of key domestic economic releases; and ongoing developments on the global economic frontand yet, much of the country (and world for that matter) was focused on the events in Boston and the aftermath of the bombing that led to a massive manhunt and a shootout with police. Early in the week, the celebrated Boston Marathon came to an abrupt halt as terror again reigned throughout the country and nearby residents were sent into lockdown mode.

Another dayAnother record. With last weeks poor unemployment releases suddenly a distant memory, investors looked forward (and not backward) and took the Dow Jones and S&P 500 back into record-setting territory with a four-day winning streak. By weeks end, however, some key earnings reports disappointed and analysts became more concerned about the state of the consumer (though there is clearly no consensus on that front either).

Move over Dow Jones, here comes the S&P. What few thought possible a year ago is coming to fruition as the major indexes continue to push toward record territory. The S&P 500 is close (but no cigar) to besting its personal high set in late 2007, before this whole banking mess emerged and sent equities into a tailspin. Confident investors seemed to be overlooking the numerous concerns (budget/sequester, payroll taxes, Europe, China) so they can participate in the record run.

Stocks moved to record highs (Dow Jones) early in the week and never looked back. Some favorable economic data, particularly from labor, renewed investors' confidence and others jumped on as the week progressed to participate in the friendly trend. Even with the spending cuts from sequester threatening to weaken the economy, investors focused more on the present than the future. Though naysayers scoff at the recent moves and claim the economic strength is at least partially artificially Fed induced, their voices have been silenced for now.

The sky is falling. The sky is falling. It's the millennium all over again. (How did those fears work out?) With politicos unable to reach any agreement on the budget (taxes), the "dumb, arbitrary" spending cuts began to take effect to the tune of $85 billion this year. (So much for a military preparedness.) Though the impact on the economy will not be felt overnight, some areas will begin to suffer sooner than others and biz/consumer confidence could become an issue in the near future.

Tick Tick Tick. The President has plans for improving life in America. Tick Tick Tick. Republicans want to fix the middle class (and restricting taxes on the upper class may help). Tick Tick Tick. Earnings reports look good, but forecasts for the current quarter have been lowered. Tick Tick Tick. Weekly jobless claims keep falling, but major corporations are announcing layoffs. Tick Tick Tick. Sales figures show growth, but Wal-Mart and others are worried. Tick Tick Tick.

With folks in the Northeast finally returning to normalcy following Superstorm Sandy's impact in October, a "potentially historic" blizzard threatened the region with predicted disruptions to businesses, schools, travel, etc. Though New England is expected to catch the brunt of the damage, forecasters are calling for up to 20 inches of snow in New York City. For now, NYSE Euronext does not anticipate anything but "business as usual" at the NY Stock Exchange as contingency plans are well in place.

The trend is your friend...so hopefully it will continue for a little (lot) longer. With the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff on the backburner (for now), investors seem to like what they are seeing from earnings season and in the economy. They continued to take stocks higher as the S&P 500 settled above 1500 for the first time in five years and is currently riding a eight session winning streak.

Tragedy in Algeria brought another reminder about just how dangerous the world can be. Oil prices rose on the enhanced turmoil in the region as well as on news that supplies unexpectedly dropped in the recent gov report. Financials led earnings season in a mostly positive way, though several releases included reminders about the financial crisis and the greed factor of certain professionals. The favorable economic data was well received as S&P 500 index again hit a five-year high though even the optimists remain cautious as the budget negotiations yield little positive results.

Finally, a week not totally dominated by "fiscal cliff" discussions (though politicos now have their hands full with a gun control debate...what are the chances of compromise there?). Alcoa kicked off earnings season as usual and the early results lend credence to the thought that China will again be relied upon to lead any global recovery. Major banks announced major settlements as they continued to try to close the (negative) books on the financial crisis. Oil rose on Saudi production cuts.

Welcome to a new beginning, a new yeara new optimistic investor, a new bipartisan Congress, (well, maybe not). The more things change, the more they stay the same. While investors embraced the budget deal (that is less of a deal than a procrastination), the pragmatists realize that very little has changed other than the "fiscal can" has been kicked down the road for two months. Stocks skyrocketed; bonds plunged; politicos bickered. Welcome to 2013.

Welcome to the end of 2012. Investors are hardly basking in the glow of a positive year for stocks. They are less than enthusiastic about the recovery in housing. They seem to be overlooking the actions of the Fed and the implications for the indefinite low rate environment. Two words remain firmly entrenched in the minds. FISCAL CLIFF. What say you (besides bickering and backstabbing)Prez O, Speaker Boehner, Senators McConnell and Reid? Time is running out and five straight down days proves that investors are growing more and more nervous. Happy New Year (I think).

Politics ruled the day over the past three months (and beyond) and unfortunately the trend may very well continue as the averted "fiscal cliff" was merely postponed for another two months. For now, investors are happy, but what will tomorrow bring? (That's a question for you, Prez Obama and Speaker Boehner.) Happy New Year

Welcome to the end of 2012. Investors are hardly basking in the glow of a positive year for stocks. They are less than enthusiastic about the recovery in housing. They seem to be overlooking the actions of the Fed and the implications for the indefinite low rate environment. Two words remain firmly entrenched in the minds. FISCAL CLIFF. What say you (besides bickering and backstabbing)Prez O, Speaker Boehner, Senators McConnell and Reid? Time is running out and five straight down days proves that investors are growing more and more nervous. Happy New Year (I think).

Down to the homestretch. While investors generally spend the last few days of the year window-dressing and setting positions for the next, this year they face the added uncertainties of the "fiscal cliff" and the negative implications for the economy. Though the data of the week seemed positive and reflective of "solid" (too strong?) growth, the budgetary matters and inability of our "best and brightest" to work together do not bode well. So much for Plan B. Perhaps a late year holiday gift is still in order?

Time for some year-end window dressing (before investments fall off the fiscal cliff). With little to no progress to report on the budget, politicos continue trying to earn brownie points at home, while losing them in the press. Investors still seem to believe a deal will be reached, but with the holidays (and vacations) approaching, time is really of the essence. Retailers and manufacturers rebounded in November from superstorm Sandy, but the cliff still looms as a definite possibility.

Obama meets with the nations governors and speaks before the Business Roundtable to continue drumming up support for his budget deal. (Arent most governors counted among the countrys wealthy?) Expect the bickering and blame-placing to continue until finally a small deal is reached with the majority of the work tabled for later in 2013. (How will Moodys and S&P perceive that move?) The economic calendar heats up with critical news from labor and manufacturing and retailers share insight into the holiday shopping season thus far. And Europe is never far from the radar screen.

Investors breathed a sigh of relief (perhaps temporarily) and expressed thanks in the form of the strongest week in the market in several months (though on light volume). Domestically, housing data confirmed strength in the sector and retailers opened their doors earlier than usual with the hope that "if you open, they will come." Overseas, Europe's struggles continued, though manufacturing in China looked to be on the mend. Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the weekend; after all, next week starts the home stretch for the end of the year...(and the fiscal cliff).

Could it be signs of progress? While Obama and key congressional leaders didn't exactly emerge form budget meeting arm-in-arm and singing kumbaya, they did report some progress (dare I say "compromise"?) regarding spending cut and tax hikes (better known as "fiscal cliff"). Investors remain fearful as prior discussions were always derailed over partisan bickering and the S&P and other ratings agencies remain on call should they need to act on US credit. Thanksgiving marks the beginning of what many retailers hope is a successful holiday shopping season.

"Four more years...Four more years." While those words may be music to the ears of Obama supporters worldwide, investors seemed less than impressed (at least initially). A second Obama administration brings plenty of question marks about the global economy, the tax code, the regulatory environment, Corporate America, and, of course, the financial markets. Stocks plunged on the first day post-election, but many analysts believe that is less a statement about the Obama victory and more a concern that the "fiscal cliff" is now clearly atop the news headlines.

Superstorm Sandy overshadowed most all newsworthy stories during the week as much of the East Coast (and beyond) suffered some ill-effects and many will be fighting to overcome challenges for many days (weeks, months) to come. The stock market closed over consecutive days to start the week and uncertainty (volatility) ensued with investors enjoying the best single day performance in a month-and-a-half, only to give up those gains a day later as many set portfolios in advance of the election. Soon the campaign will be a distant memory (but the "fiscal cliff" will become a near-reality).

Disgruntled investors took a look at the earnings reports and ran for the hills. With some industrial and techs issuing pessimistic reports (mainly in their outlooks), investors chose to take a hiatus. Election season is just a week-ish away and then the fiscal cliff looms in the not-so-distance future, so plenty of uncertainties and concerns remain for the time being. (And don't forget Spain.)

Maybe a four day work week would make some sense? Well, at least, it would have been helpful this week. After a strong start in the equity markets (and a four-day winning streak), the anniversary of Black Monday brought horrid memories of past bearish times and stocks gave up all (most) of their early gains. Major techs reported poor earnings and the Nasdaq struggled more than most as weak PC demand continues to take its toll. Good news...one bad day does not a market make.

Though investors seemed to overlook the negative earnings projections for the third quarter, the initial releases finally brought out the sellers. While the naysayers had been drowned out by the optimism of the Fed moves, the early results and management warnings prompted investors to sell (and sell and sell) as the major equity indexes each plunged over 2% in what was considered the worst week since June. Heck even a "cheery" Joe Biden couldn't save the markets this week.

Don't bury Candidate Romney quite yet. The man looks to be in come-back mode and he has some experience in this area. Remember when Republicans preferred anyone but Mitt (Perry, Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Santorum) and yet he emerged victorious from the primary season.

The "quarter of Bernanke" left investors optimistic over the past three months despite the ongoing concerns at home and abroad (and a critical election).

Bad news from Spain (no good news, no bad news.) Investors spent the week trying to make heads or tails about the headlines out of Europe, while analyzing the news from a suddenly resurging housing sector and a suddenly ailing manufacturing sector. For the most part, however, many were booking profits from a successful third quarter, while reallocating positions for the final stretch of the year. (Surely the Prez election and the "fiscal cliff" must enter into their decision-making moving forward).

These days, the various central bankers keep trying to outdo themselves with new stimulus deals. This week, Bank of Japan followed the Fed leads with an expanded bond buying program. Perhaps the moves will reap dividends and the global economy will surge to higher highs in the not so distant future. (Or perhaps the "easy money" strategies will have little impact long-term and lead to periods of inflation and asset bubbles.) Apple's latest "new new" thing remains in hot demand (but can supplier keep up?).

Dr. B. has spoken and investor are happy (though some Republican investors probably have mixed feelings). Though not all economists were on board with QE3, the policymakers looked at the labor market and took action. With promises of more bond-buying and low fund rates into 2015, investors went on a risk asset buying spree and stocks shot up to multi-year highs. So let the over-analysis (and political bickering) begin.

Isaac vs. Romney vs. Bernanke. Each took their turn in the limelight this week. While the Hurricane dropped plenty of rain and brought damaging winds into Louisiana, the devastation didnt compare to Katrina. Romney humbly accepted his party's nomination, while still trying to prove to T-Partiers (and women) that he should be their guy (and he can bash his opponents with the best of them.

When Ben Bernanke talks...investors listen, Republican moans, Romney belittles, and markets react. For now, the jury is still out about any upcoming stimulus move as the policymakers appear far from consensus. Housing continued its rebounding ways, though manufacturing again raised concerns. Europe still appears to be in disarray as Greece takes direction (and a scolding) from its stronger brethren. Stocks ended their nice winning streak, though closed the week on a high note.

Once upon a time, Facebook and Groupon were prospective Wall Street darlings. Now both they are pushing all-time lows with analysts questioning their overall revenue models. For now, they are in the minority, as some decent earnings numbers and economic data brought back the "bulls" (at least those who arent on vacation) and sent the major indexes higher (again). Europe still has plenty of issues; the jury is still out on the Fed's next moves; and the campaign season is heating up.

Action speaks louder than words. While the positive rhetoric coming from the mouths of center bankers brought optimism to the markets, their actions (or lack thereof) sent the indexes into a four day losing streak. Only a strong non-farm payroll release late in the week salvaged the market and a solid rebound left the major indexes in positive territory for the week (though the eternal pessimists believed the data was an aberration). Maybe Bernanke has more words of wisdom for them?

Oh, the power of words. While the week in the markets got off to a dismal start as the European saga continued, news from the ECB (and rumors about the Fed) renewed investors' interests. Many overlooked the confusing earnings numbers, the lackluster economic data, and the elevated rates in Europe and pinned their hopes on Central Bankers to save the day. (Both the Fed and European Central Bank meet next week.) The Dow jumped past 13k for the first time since early May.

Tragedy in Colorado overshadowed earnings and economic news and even the Prez candidates could find common ground in expressing sorrow. The earnings numbers remain confusing at best (often better than downwardly revised projections); economic data depicts ongoing consumer concerns; Bernanke is attacked and attacks right back; and the markets settle not far from where they began the week. Coming up in the week ahead: New Home Sales (Wednesday), Durable Goods Orders (Thursday), GDP (Friday).

Now that's a nice way to end a losing streak. After six consecutive down days (and little in the way to promote optimism), investors jumped back into the equity pool feet first and the Dow surged over 200 on the final day of trading. In terms of new news, the JP Morgan earnings announcement was not as bad as expected (I guess), though investors may have been looking for any excuse to seek out bargains in the aftermath of a pretty dreary week-plus.

So much for that Random Walk Theory. During the past two years, equities started strong before running into headwinds in the second quarter and Europe (namely Greece) was perceived to be the primary culprit. As another very solid first quarter came to a close, perhaps smart investors should have been looking at charts and reading the Greek press to predict another downturn.

Hip Hip Hooray. Europe is saved (again); the equity markets are back on track (again); and investors can enjoy a much needed holiday come hump day next week. With positive news out of Europe and some favorable signs for the housing sector, investors moved back into risk assets and stocks enjoyed a nice end of the week (quarter). Supreme Court Chief Justice put his stamp on ObamaCare (and earned some enemies along the way). The second quarter could not end soon enough.

Ahthe doldrums of summer. Sure Greece just completed crucial elections that could have dramatic impact on the euro-zone and the global economy; AND Spain just saw its interest rates rise above the key seven percent level into traditional bailout territory; AND JP Morgan, of failed hedging fame, just received a major ratings downgrade by Moodys Investors Services; AND Facebook disappointed the investment world with its disastrous IPO, a comedy of errors for most everyone involved

With Fed officials preparing for next weeks policy meeting, traders and investors alike have been busy dissecting economic data and global developments as they speculate about any potential moves. While Spain and Italy saw their yields surge and Greece moved closer to Decision 2012, investors focused on the potential for European action and compromise that could put the Union back on a road to recovery (with or without Greece).

Add the Fed to the equation to make things a bit more interesting. With stock prices plummeting (with no end in sight), enter Dr. B. and friends with comments that led some to expect future stimulus moves (or maybe not). The European Central Bank made similar remarks, and China took it a step farther with an actual rate cut. Investors welcomed the potential moves and a bit of optimism returns (even if just for a short period). As always, the political bickering is heating up (at home and in Europe) and yet November still remains several months away.

Nothing good to report here so why even try to spin it. (Effective politicians may beg to differ.) The once promising labor picture just turned from bad to worse; manufacturing is no longer the one staple in the economy; Spain may be replacing Greece as the poster child for what ails the EU (and thats not because things are looking up in Greece). Stocks suffered their worst day of the year to end the week and the gains of the first quarter have been long forgotten. (Even the Astros stink again.)

When something seems too good to be true For years, investors had (im)patiently awaited the Facebook IPO and a chance to own a piece of the new new thing. Zuckerberg and Co. liked the control and were already wealthy; however, inevitably, they would be selling a piece of the pie to would-be buyers willing to invest, despite a complete lack of understanding of its revenue model. (When has that stopped investors before?) Every new random offering brought more anticipation about Facebooks which finally went public on May 18th.

Dell (5/22), HP (5/23) and Costco (5/24) release earnings next week, but no one seems to care much these days. The Greek crisis and ongoing EU contagion will weigh on investors as G8 leaders head to Camp David to debate fiscal responsibility. (Any opportunities to compromise, Germany?) Talks of harsh financial regs continue to heat up in the aftermath of JP Morgan. Did you guys cash-out of any Facebook (as a hedge), Mr. Dimon?

Europe is never too far away from the headlines and investors surely will be watching 1) Greece to see if its internal politicos can get along to forge a coalition and 2) France to see if its new Prez can make nice with German Chancellor Merkel. Retailers take center-stage next week as Home Depot, JC Penney, Target, Wal-Mart, and Gap all post earnings. Additionally, retail sales heads a hectic week on the economic calendar, though investors must remember that declining energy prices should help in the months to come.

Earnings season continues (with the likes of Humana, AIG, Kraft), though investors may shift gears to focus on the economy next week as the new month brings key releases from manufacturing and labor. The recent jobless claims release has cast some doubt on the employment picture and last months lower-than-expected nonfarm additions have worried some analysts for the past month. (At least, it should look better than the picture in Spain?)

Dr. Bernanke and friends get together again to set monetary policy and will discuss oil and gas prices and the effect on inflation as well the newfound labor slowdown. Still, no one expects any additional stimulus moves at this time and the policymakers should reiterate their intent to keep the funds rate at near-zero percent well into 2014. The future of Europe remains atop the headlines as France holds crucial national elections and the IMF convenes for its semi-annual soiree.

Europe hopes the latest (bailout and reg) moves will help it get its act together. (Good luck with that.) China applies the brakes. Labor looks strong, but can it continue? The Fed debates the need for more stimulus (without any consensus). Facebook moves closer to IPO (and investors beg to participate). The world lectures Iran and finally takes harsh measures (stand by to help Saudi). Investors hope to keep the mo going for another quarter, while being tempted to take profits along the way. Can we finally start focusing on Obama vs. Romney?

Investors return to work after much-deserved R&R and face a equity market at a crossroads. Was the pullback this week a temporary blip or was it the start of a longer-term trend representing the true fundamentals of the economy and the corporate climate? Futures predict that Mondays opening may be weak due to labor data. The dreaded I word highlights the weekly data as higher energy prices may have taken a toll on the key inflation gauges. Still experts like Bernanke do not see many price pressures on the long-term horizon and any rise in crude and gasoline due to Iran may be short-lived.

Europe takes a well-deserved back seat to the global headlines as all eyes shift to China to see how the country deals with its recent economic slowdown. Consumer activity is on the hot seat domestically as a key confidence gauge is released and analysts closely dissect personal income and spending data in light of the sudden pickup in the labor market. The markets continue to test key levels as investors weigh the low yields in fixed income against the current risk in equities. Hows that speaking tour treating you, Dr. B.? Any Ron Paul sightings?

The Fed gets together next week as analysts eagerly await the (more transparent) recap of the behind-the-scenes discussions between the (dissenting) parties. Rumors have policymakers debating a new type of bond buying program (sterilized QE) in which the Fed would print money to purchase long-term securities, but investors would face certain restrictions over how those proceeds can be used. As always, the Feds aim is to keep rates low and encourage more spending and investing by consumers and biz.

New week; same old story. EU ministers continue debating the Greek bailout package which should (hopefully) come to resolution next week. Unemployment highlights a busy economic calendar as investors look to see how the solid weekly jobless claims releases translate into the key labor rate and nonfarm payroll data. Bring on Super Tuesday, right Mitt?

Earning season plods along with consumer-driven companies like Walt Disney and Coca Cola highlighting the calendar. Investors get a break on the economic front as the mad rush of releases slows, allowing them time to digest this weeks data, particular the news from the labor front. (Surely consumers should be more confident after the favorable developments?)

A few retailers (Abercrombie & Fitch, Nordstrom) take center stage in earnings season as investors get another glimpse into the recent holiday activity. Likewise retail sales highlights the economic calendar and offers some follow-through from the season. Fed minutes depict the mindset of the policymakers. And, of course, there will be news from Greece.

Europe will continue to make headlines as Greece took strides this week to achieving its bailout, but still must appease its European trading partners and the International Monetary Fund. The domestic economic calendar heats up as news from manufacturing and consumer-related releases highlight the data of the week as the month of February comes to a close (a day later than usual). The Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book and investors can again start speculating about any future stimulus moves and the continued dissension among the policymakers.

The spectre of Dow 13,000 haunted the market last week. In the midst of a political debate, a moral dilemma, and a global debt conflagration, nothing could be less significant than a numerical integer whose relevance is highly overrated. As numbers crunchers go, there are integers and there are integers. More to the point is the location of the integer and the trend within which it is contained. For example, if Dow 13,000 represents the end of a cycle, a destination, then its significance is diminished as opposed to a breakout on the way to somewhere else.

All eyes will be on the Fed as investors hope to take the newfound insight from its meeting and translate that into profitable trading opportunities (is that the intent of the new strategy?). The ever-changing mindset of the consumer is again on display as McDonalds (1/24), Starbucks (1/26), and Procter & Gamble (1/27) headline the earnings season. Looking at the economic data, analysts get their first look at 4th quarter GDP and gain greater insight on the impact of those Thai floods and the success of the holiday season. And then theres Europeis Greece really back in the headlines?

As January goes, so goes the market for the year. Can we keep these gains for two more days? A few key bellwethers post earningsExxon Mobil looks to set new records; Amazon shows the effects of the holiday season; and UPS provides new signs about the strength of the overall economy. Labor and manufacturing highlight a very busy week on the economic calendar as investors hope to see continued positive trends from the ISM (manu), nonfarm payroll, and the unemployment rate. And, of course, Europe is never too far from the weekly headlines. (The more things change) Go Giants (a week early).

So will Frances borrowing costs start tumbling now that the S&P has cut its rating below AAA? Illogically, thats what happened in the US. Now that the news is finally out in the open, investors can go back to monitoring Greece as it hopes to finally make a debt restructuring deal with private creditors. What say you, Germany? Earnings season moves forward and the banks look to reverse the pessimism initiated from JP Morgans disappointing report. Intel pushes some of the earnings attention over to the tech world and GE provides profit news from one of the nations key economic bellwethers.

So will Frances borrowing costs start tumbling now that the S&P has cut its rating below AAA? Illogically, thats what happened in the US. Now that the news is finally out in the open, investors can go back to monitoring Greece as it hopes to finally make a debt restructuring deal with private creditors. What say you, Germany? Earnings season moves forward and the banks look to reverse the pessimism initiated from JP Morgans disappointing report. Intel pushes some of the earnings attention over to the tech world and GE provides profit news from one of the nations key economic bellwethers.

After a meaningless breakeven year, the S&P 500 looks to better its performance in 2012.A recent CNNMoney survey speculates the benchmark index will gain 7% in the current year.While the economic data has been positive as of late, all eyes shift to corporate earnings and Alcoa kicks off the season in the coming days. Retail sales highlight the economic calendar and investors get a better feel for the true results of the holidays.While sales looked strong throughout, mass discounting undoubtedly cut into profits and some retailers are now rethinking the success of the markdown strategy.

Global geopolitical events continue to impact all investments markets. Just when Europe seemed to be taking positive steps to move passed crisis mode, along come Spain, Italy, and Hungary to remind investors that the road to recovery will be paved with many bumps along the way. A nuclear Iran presents huge concerns and additional sanctions could cause new crude supply challenges that may prompt inflation to resurface. The recent favorable labor releases woke the consumer from hibernation in time for the holidays, but will the enthusiasm last once the season ends?

As January goes, so goes the market for the year. While most investors look beyond such hype, many surely will be pulling for a strong start to the new year. Despite summit after summit, emergency call after emergency call, bailout after bailout, stimulus after stimulus, the European debacle appears no closer to resolution (and is maybe getting worst). Italy is hurting; Hungary could be next; Germany and France are calling the shots. Iran presents a new threat to the oil markets as a blockage at the Strait of Hormuz threatens real damage to the energy supply/demand picture.

The so-called Santa Clause rally implies favorable activity over a seven daysthe final five trading days of one year and the first two of the next. (So the pressure is on if these markets are going to break even in 2011.) With volume already on the light side (and vacations and gift exchanges taking center stage during the next week), expect trading activity to get even weaker heading into the new year. Sometimes market moves become exaggerated on low volume as fewer buyers/sellers are working to smooth out the gyrations so dont panic if 100+ point swings on the Dow remain the norm.

Time is running out for that Santa Claus rally and the less-than-favorable tones coming from the worlds key politicos (wont call them leaders) are giving investors little reason to remain positive. Still, the recovering labor market and (hopefully) strong holiday season offer some incentive to buy (if only they can overlook the never-ending EU problems). Investors dissect an array of data before heading out for the holidays and possibly not returning until 2012. Some late-year window dressing could help bring one final surge to the markets (or not).

Retail sales highlights a rather hectic week on the economic calendar as investors get another good reading about consumer activity and the holiday shopping season. Bear in mind, Thanksgiving will be included in this data. PPI and CPI are expected to reveal few concerns on the inflation picture, something the Fed continues to closely monitor as it makes decisions moving forward. And, of course, the eyes of the world remain firmly on Europe these days as Great Britain looks to prove its worth, while France and Germany continue to make policy decisions without much concern about anyone else.

One week does not make a trend, especially since politicos across the globe have been more than capable of messing up a good thing in the past. Black Friday came and went, but hopefully the holiday spirit remains and shoppers still frequent the malls. The grand plan in Europe surely could ease the recurring tensions of the past few years, but grand plans have had a way of fizzling in the past. Dont put it past Congress to rain on the market parade. Do all investors celebrate the Santa Clause rally, regardless of religious affiliation?

While traders, investors, and politicos prepare for their Thanksgiving travel plans, the week should be anything but dull. HP highlights the earnings reports as shareholders try to figure out the future of its PC biz. The Fed releases minutes from the last policy meeting so economists can view the dissension in its midst in determining if and when Bernanke and Co. will act again. GDP headlines the economic releases and some analysts expect a slight downward revision to the initial 2.5% reported expansion rate in the third quarter.

Black Friday results take center stage as retailers report sales data and analysts extrapolate what one days business means for the season. A rebound in consumer activity could bring new confidence to the markets. A positive showing from manufacturing and labor would also help sentiment. Then again, any newfound confidence may be overshadowed by the super-committee. Any sane politicos left? What say you, Newt, for your 15 minutes in the limelight?

Retailers continue to showcase their prior quarters as Home Depot, Wal-Mart, Staples, Gap, and Ann Taylor take turns reporting profits. Additionally, October retail sales give investors one final look at the picture before the mad rush of Black Friday. The inflation data is also reported though the latest push upward in crude will not be reflected quite yet. Europe continues to be the talk of the town and all eyes will remain on Greece and Italy as the world watches the transitions of power in those two struggling economies.

Any more surprises, Prime Minister Papandreou? Then again, will you even still be in office next week (is lame duck supposed to be hyphenated?). Europe, unfortunately, continues to earn more than its fair share of global headlines and rest of the world seems content to stand back and watch. With the G-20 meeting now in the rearview mirror, the sales tactics must move to a different venue as Europe seeks much-needed investments in its rescue fund. A slow week on the domestic economic calendar gives investors too much time on their hands to dissect the mindless gibberish out of Europe.

Europe apparently has solved all of its financial challenges While Greek protests continue daily, the EU leaders held a contentious summit that teetered between storming out with nothing and completing a breakthrough deal. In the end, the group agreed to significantly write-down Greeces sovereign debt held by private investors, recapitalize the banking system, and expand the bailout fund. The ministers hope that China and Japan will embrace the new deal and even throw a few bucks their way as an investment in the global economy, but nothing definitive has been determined at this time.

Earnings season rolls along as Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America hope to send some positive messages from banking (that JP Morgan was unable to dodont hold your breath). IBM and Intel give investors a glimpse into the world of tech. A hectic week on the economic calendar leaves investor hoping to see a continuation of the rebound in manufacturing (from the post-Japan earthquake doldrums) and good news on the inflation front. The Fed Beige book grants another look into the data debated by the policymakers as investors speculate about future stimuli.

Big oil takes center stage in earnings as Exxon-Mobil and Chevron make a run at record profits. Amazon.com gives an early glimpse into the holiday season. Euro-zone leaders try to make progress on the rescue plan and France and Germany have sworn that the matter will be rectified by mid-week (or at least a course of action will have been set). The initial release of third quarter GDP highlights the economic releases. Somehow 9.1% growth rate (like Chinas) is not likely to be in the cards.

Yes, the quarter was bad for the markets, but earnings season will go a long way toward revealing if companies are truly hurting. Many are thought to be sitting on plenty of cash, just waiting for calmer times to invest in operations (and hopefully human capital). Meanwhile, Dr. B. still claims to be ready to jump in with more stimuli if deemed necessary. As for Europecan they ever get their house in order? Their politicos may be just as bad as ours?

Alcoa kicks off earnings season and investors get a first glimpse into the real state of Corporate America. While the markets were down and the economy was out last quarter, many biz are thought to be doing well and waiting for signs of stability before hiring and investing in operations. The Fed releases minutes from the last meeting and retail sales provides another guess about the future holiday season. And Europe will surely add some drama as well.

While investors are still trying to figure out just what is going on in Europe, they must change their news feeds to follow events closer to home.The economic calendar will be quite hectic and investors have recently shown a propensity to over-react to each big release. Manufacturing and labor highlight the weeks data. Investors want to see a rebound in sector activity since the factory slowdown after the Japan earthquake; optimistic analysts hope the jobless claims report was not an aberration and the unemployment rate could fall below 9%. Any chance the third quarter was just a bad dream?

As finance ministers gather to put Humpty Dumpty together again, Prez O hopes more concrete measures are taken; the contagion is already occurring as other economies are suffering from the global crisis of confidence. Domestically, investors get more manufacturing news that will hopefully show a bounce-back from the Japan disaster-related downturn. Consumer-related data could indicate whether retailers have any hope for the future holiday season. Politicos are sure to bicker; Fed watchers continue to question; and investors remain uncertain. So what else is new?

As finance ministers gather to put Humpty Dumpty together again, Prez O hopes more concrete measures are taken; the contagion is already occurring as other economies are suffering from the global crisis of confidence. Domestically, investors get more manufacturing news that will hopefully show a bounce-back from the Japan disaster-related downturn. Consumer-related data could indicate whether retailers have any hope for the future holiday season. Politicos are sure to bicker; Fed watchers continue to question; and investors remain uncertain. So what else is new?

Housing numbers highlight the data of the week so dont expect much positive news on the economic front. The Fed holds its policy meeting and the jury is still out over how the debate will unfold. Some investors seem to want stimulus for stimulus sake. The Fed could extend maturities on its government portfolio; it could reduce the interest paid to banks for holding excess cash in reserves. Such measures could prove more symbolic than anything. On the other hand, some Fed watchers warn of unforeseen consequences and believe it is time to let capitalism rule the day.

When volume is as light as it was this week, two things can happen: 1) investors return from the holiday and seek value from the exaggerated downward moves, or 2) investors who were missing in action this week jump onboard and accelerate the selling. With little data of substance to analyze, fickle investor seek new answers.

One positive week does not constitute a trend (wishful thinking). The economic calendar is quite hectic next week with key news from manufacturing and labor. Though recent results have been lackluster at best, many analysts have predicted a rebound in the months to come. Hopefully, some favorable signs of such strength will present themselves as early as next week (starting with decent nonfarm additions and a reduction in the jobless rate). If not, maybe Bernanke can come to the rescue again. QE3 anyone?

As another successful earnings season winds down, investors have all but forgotten the solid second quarter showings and are focusing on the sudden economic downturn. So much for the nice results and strong outlooks from energy, health care, retail, and certain techs. Investors are choosing instead to trade based on the political bickering, the seemingly never-ending European woes, and the short-term negative effects of Japan. Many corporations across various sectors remain cash-rich and are weighing their options as they pursue new opportunities: acquisitions, dividends, share buyback.

So what will be the effects of the debt deal on the economy and markets? For now, investors are quite pessimistic (to say the least). Even Bernanke has warned that severe spending cuts would prove detrimental and cause a drag on the economy. And any threats (real or perceived) of a ratings cut would prove disastrous. (Thats where we are today.) Retailers join the earnings fun as Macys, Kohls, Nordstrom, and JP Penney lead the way. The Fed meets and issues a statement to help folks make heads or tails over the future direction of the economy.

A month ago, the DC deficit/debt debate was amusing political theater. Partisan hacks earned brownie points with loyal constituents, while preparing for next years election. Two weeks ago, the theater turned into a game of chicken as Main Street and Wall Street watched with interest to see which party would blink first. Today, theater and chicken are no longer amusing. A complete and utter inability to compromise and a win-at-all-costs attitude have brought government and economy to the brink of disaster. Are there any grown-ups left in Washington?

While Obama and the Republicans seem to getting closer to making a deficit reduction deal (just dont mention tax hikes), plenty of naysayers lurk in the background, preparing to derail it. Additionally, lots of infighting has emerged as Conservatives worry that their leaders are giving in on taxes and Dems fear Obama is not requiring nearly enough on the tax front in return for spending cuts. The markets reacted positively to news the two sides are talking and virtually everyone thinks the debt ceiling will get raised before the deadline (except maybe some Tea Partiers).

Just what happens when politics moves over into the investment spectrum? For this week, at least, the results were not so good. With partisan bickering dominating the debt negotiations (and virtually all non-politicians worrying about a default and ratings downgrade), investors ran for the hills (or into treasuries). At least, the Fed looks prepared to add more stimulus (hey I thought that was done?).

April 2011 picked up exactly where the first quarter ended as equities enjoyed their best month of the year and bulls appeared to be firmly in control. Then a funny thing happened on the way to big gains (actually a few not-so-funny things)?Stocks tumbled and key indexes dropped for seven out of eight weeks as the quarter neared a close and investors looked to the safe-haven of treasuries (despite the credit rating concerns). And just when all hope seemed lost?a new Greek solution emerged, manufacturers seemed to get back on track, and the Fed ended the QE2 stimulus to little fanfare.

Hip hip hooray, the labor market is improving! Oops, it?s not. According to ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors, 157,000 new private sector jobs were created in June, a much better-than-expected showing and nice sign for this crucial area of the economy. However, before the ink was even dry on that report, the Labor Department contradicted it by revealing that only 18k jobs were added last month and the unemployment rate climbed to 9.2%, the highest level of the year. Additionally, jobless claims dropped in the latest weekly release, but still remain well in excess of 400,000.

The second quarter ended on a very positive note as equities enjoyed a late surge to bring the Dow into positive territory for the period (and the other indexes close to flat). Such performances didn?t seem likely just a few weeks ago, but positive news this week from Greece, signs of a rebound in manufacturing, and declining gas prices that helped ease a more fearful inflation picture put a damper on the recent negativity. Equities enjoyed their best week in two years. Let?s hope the mood lasts.

If it?s not one things, it?s another. A Greek tragedy averted (for now, perhaps?); a move to limit the rise in crude and gasoline prices (necessary or panic?); a never-ending debt crisis with political ramification (not only in Greece); an (overly) cautious assessment of the latest Fed-speak. Add it all up and you have a pretty volatile week on the equity front. The second quarter cannot end soon enough. Hey Japan?how?s that restructuring plan coming?

Fed policymakers, next week, discuss the state of the economy and debate the need for additional stimuli. QE3 anyone? The controversial bond buying programs ends in June so investors and economists will keep an eye on the next round of data for signs that the economy can finally ?go at it alone.? A recent WSJ survey pegged a future rate cut well into 2012 so corporations and home buyers should still have the luxury of affordable credit for the foreseeable future. Greece will remain in the news and investors hope for some prompt solution before contagion spreads to Portugal, Spain and Ireland.

Last summer, the markets encountered a (temporary) setback as debt problems in Europe threatened the global recovery and weaker data prompted thoughts of a double-dip. Well, after six consecutive down weeks, the pessimism has returned to the equity markets; of similar note, Greece still has yet to find its footing and the once promising labor rebound still has a long way to go. The Fed is about to end a controversial stimulus, but stands prepared to help again if situations warrant.

Congress failed to pass a bill to raise the government?s debt ceiling and help avoid a default in early August. Republicans refused to support any legislation that is not tied to specific deficit reduction, even though there is a potential downgrade on US debt without any progress on a deal. The bickering continued in the aftermath of the unemployment data as both parties blamed the other for the weaker results. Republicans questioned the ?binge of taxing, spending, borrowing and over-regulating,? while Democrats claimed their counterparts are too focused on ?tax breaks for millionaires.?

While Memorial Day starts summer, many traders got a jumpstart on the season by skipping town early as volume was quite thin on the exchanges. Earnings announcements continued (though folks stopped paying attention long ago) and Tiffany and Guess both bested expectations, a nice sign for luxury retail. As the season comes to a close, the results spoke well for the state of Corporate America. For the quarter, profits increased by almost 6% to $1.45 trillion. The IPO world did not fare as well after investors thought the LinkedIn success of last week had ushered in a new ?exuberance.?

It?s beginning to look a lot like?summer.From college commencements to high school proms to nursery school graduations?soon kids will be home with nothing to do (but spend their parents? hard-earned money); vacations start in earnest; and market volume usually takes a tumble (tee times during trading hours).As for this year?rising commodities have elevated food prices which makes dining out more expensive.Likewise, with gasoline prices pushing $4/gal, analysts worry about any ill-effects on travel plans and overall consumer activity. In fact, several retailers are already feeling the pinch.

Let the volatility begin. Commodities prices go up?equities follow. Commodities prices stumble?equities follow. These days, the supply/demand vs. speculation debate seems to be consuming investors? mindsets as the major moves in metals, grains, and energy (both up and down) are leading the direction of stocks (both up and down). Earnings still remain solid, though more firms are warning about future results.

As the 10-year anniversary of 9-11 approaches, American have all too vivid memories of that dreadful day and the frightening uncertainties that have remained because of the elevated terror risks. This week, one uncertainty was lifted as Osama bin Laden, the 9-11 mastermind, was killed in a successful military operation in Pakistan. While his death does not eliminate the risk of future attacks, it brings much-needed closure to many and a newfound sense of country pride for the US military and intelligence community.

With Dr. B. explaining ?moderate pace?, earnings season moved forward and the results have been quite appealing thus far. About half of the S&P 500 companies have reported and the quarter looks to be on track to be record-setting and the seventh straight period of double-digit gains. Of note, solid revenue growth is replacing ?cost-cutting measures? as the primary driver of the strong season. Exxon Mobil, RD Shell, and Chevron are all benefiting from higher oil prices and better refining margins. One down note?Research in Motion (Blackberry) seems to be struggling against rival Apple.

What do those guys know at S&P anyway? Sure China has been warning us for years, but is the largest US creditor really going to cut us off just because our politicos can?t get along? (Don?t answer that.) This week, the gov got a wakeup call from the rating agency that it?s time to get our budgetary house in order. Investors reacted negatively (briefly), but then decided to focus more on iPhone sales and other positive developments. Let?s see what Dr. B. and friends have to say next week. Enjoy the long weekend.

Though Reps and Dems came together to find $39 billion in budget cuts to avoid a government shutdown, the mood in DC is far from amicable and no one is singing kumbaya. On the heals of Tax Day, Prez O submitted his plan to rein in the deficit by $4 trillion over 12 years that includes spending cuts AND tax hikes aimed at biz and the well-off. While a bipartisan commission praised the proposal as a "solid, responsible plan," would-be Presidential candidates lined up to offer their opposing views, particularly against anything resembling a tax increase.

All those rabid anti-government, ?conspiracy theorists? may soon get what they most desire. As of Friday afternoon, politicos were continuing their game of chicken as the clock kept ticking toward the first government shutdown in 15 years. While both parties have made concessions on spending programs, the old reliable abortion issue has entered the mix. The latest WSJ poll reveals that Americans blame congressional Republicans (37%) most, countering the partisan hope that Prez O 20% and the Dems 20%, had the most to lose. For now it appears that the American people have the most to lose.

?It?s a small world after all.? The past quarter was proof positive that developments across the world truly impact the global economy and investment markets (or do they?). A pro-democracy movement spread across the Middle East, crude prices surged to levels not seen in 2 years and inflation fears resurfaced. Japan suffered an earthquake that brought the economy to a virtual standstill and the initial price-tag for reconstruction stands at over $200 bln. While analysts claim the rebuilding process will prove positive for global trade, excessive debt could slow a ?speedy recovery.?

New quarter?renewed optimism?ongoing challenges. The second quarter 2011 kicked off with promising news on the labor front as more private sector hires and a lower jobless rate confirmed that employers have enough confidence to begin adding to the payroll. While the favorable outlook has long been apparent in the corporate boardrooms, the labor market had remained a big concern, leading consumers to hold off on major purchases. Since November 2010, however, the unemployment rate has dropped by a full percentage point, a trend that speaks nicely to the recovering economy as a whole.

Developments abroad have been such downers over the past few weeks that investors chose to focus on positive news from the domestic boardrooms. AT&T looks to be joining with T-Mobile to create the nation?s largest wireless company. Charles Schwab is adding OptionsExpress to its portfolio, and Walgreen will acquire Drugstore.com as it expands its online presence. Warren Buffet continues to cheerlead for corporate transactions as he claimed the recent Lubrizol deal was just the tip of the iceberg and Berkshire Hathaway is exploring a number of acquisitions, both at home and overseas.

March Madness (basketball) could not have come at a better time. For weeks, folks have focused on developments in the Middle East as prospects for (some sort of) Democracy spread, but oil prices ballooned and investors fear Saudi Arabia may fall victim to revolution as well. Then, Japan pushed Libya to the backburner as fears of an economic slowdown (and nuclear radiation exposure) raised concerns across the globe. Markets reacted to the headline, often on mere speculation as no one knows how the global developments will play out.

The volatility is back. In Jan., the Dow encountered but two days of triple digit moves. In Feb., that number jumped, but only to three. Already by March 11, the index has moved by 100 point or more (up or down) on four occasions this month. Geopolitical events in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe have brought renewed uncertainties to the marketplace and prompted some recent profit taking and maybe even a flight-to-quality into treasuries. This week, the ?nays? had it as the Libyan conflict continued and threats of its spreading to oil giant Saudi Arabia remained fresh on investors minds.

Unlike Egypt?s Mubarak, Libya?s Gadhafi is not going down without a strong fight. With tensions escalating throughout the region, the world?s oil supply and crude prices soared above $104/barrel over the past few days to levels not seen in 29 months. While optimists point out that Saudi Arabia has been quick to pick up the slack for any shortfall out of Libya, others worry that a prolonged crisis limits its ability to do so indefinitely. The bigger pessimists fear that the uprising could spread to Saudi (Anyone think it may be time to reduce our dependency on foreign oil?)

First Tunisia was stricken with political unrest and investors barely noticed. Then Egypt suffered through a revolution which initiated a change in leadership, and the markets offered a collective yawn. Now Libya faces mass protests and traders are on edge. So what?s different in this case? One word?OIL. Libya is the first major oil producing state to encounter the violent turmoil that threatens a major shift in power. It produces 1.6 million barrels of oil a day and crude prices surged in the immediate aftermath of the revolution on fears of a production slowdown.

And don?t let the door hit you on the way out! As the Mubarak regime comes to a close, oppressed Egyptians look forward to better times ahead. (Unfortunately, turmoil remains a constant in this region.) The markets reacted favorably to the ?peaceful?? end of the conflict and also to the news of some pretty significant biz transactions. Dr. B. lashed out at Congress (and got an earful in return). Earnings season moved forward with mixed results. And the Dow enjoyed an eight day winning streak and then started another one as the week came to a close.

Consumer confidence in January rose to its highest level in eight months as individuals seemed to overlook the ongoing labor concerns. The long-ailing housing sector received a bit of good news as new home sales jumped to the best showing since May and home prices even surged to levels not seen since early 2008. Though claims for jobless benefits rose in the most recent week, analysts believe that harsh winter weather may have temporarily halted hiring and the recent improvements on the claims front should resume in the weeks to follow.

With another corporate earnings season moving into high gear and equities riding a seven week winning streak, a healthy bit of skepticism (not necessary pessimism) has crept into the investor mindset.Some analysts still want to see more revenue growth as opposed to cost-cuts in the earnings reports.Others fear that ?the trend is your friend? may be a nice guide, but investors may be disregarding the ongoing debt issue in the EU and the rise in interest rates throughout emerging markets.

So was the holiday season really as strong as most retailers claimed? So is inflation about to rear its ugly head? Next week should help answer these questions as some key data will be released. After the disappointing same-store sales numbers, investors are eager to see the December retail sales report; the recent run-up in crude price may begin to work its way into the PPI and CPI data. Investors also look to start a new equity market winning streak to keep hope alive that January turns out to be a positive month (and the rest of the year will follow suit).

While the consumer has emerged from hibernation, an improved labor picture would boost this favorable trend. The Fed hopes that QE2 will help build on the recent economic momentum, though many doubters surely remain. Earnings comparisons get more difficult in the coming quarters, though analysts expect improved revenue growth to contribute to the positive results. The tax ?compromise? means a continuation of the bullish mindset in equities (for now). Developments abroad will impact the domestic markets as the EU looks to move beyond its debt issues, and China leads the global recovery.

While 2010 offered great portfolio returns and renewed confidence for many investors (including individuals), they should not forget the reasons for the troubles that led up to the financial debacle. Hopefully, 2011 will bring more of the same in terms of stronger corporate earnings, improving economic data, and stellar market returns. One key thought for the new year?Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. Let?s not let that happen in the new year.

Anyone reading this commentary needs to get home for the holidays (or for some Chinese food and a movie for those non-Christmas celebrators). A few numbers, some last-minute window-dressing, announced global transactions, and a race to end with double-digit gains. Let?s close 2010 on a high note. Have a nice season and a very happy new year

It?s beginning to look a lot like? Obama and the Republican Congress gave the American people an early Christmas (or late Chanukah) present in the form of tax relief and an unexpected compromise from the Nation?s Capital. (Why solve problems today when we can put them off for two years?) Better than expected economic releases and some strong earnings helped propel the Dow to a two year high, though plenty of nervousness remains as the end of the year approaches. Despite the best efforts of the Fed, bonds remain in the doldrums. Things could be worse?we could live in Ireland (or Spain).

The great compromiser?or the great traitor?depends of which party loyalist you ask. Taxes dominated the news this week as O and the Republicans reached a compromise on extending the Bush tax cuts, much to the disappointment of Dems. Investors like certainty and welcomed the move as it meant capital gains and dividends would continue to be taxed at 15% for the next two years. Oil surged on prospects of economic growth, though the threat of inflation again resurfaced. So, Obama?any interest in hiring Karl Rove as an advisor?

Retail Ireland, retail, China, retail, tax cuts, retail, QE2, retail, jobs, retail. Yes, investors have plenty on their minds these days. Hopefully, the news from retail can continue to compensate for some of the more concerning dynamics at play.

Korea, Ireland, insider trading, earnings season conclusion, QE2, retail activity. Plenty of news?but is anyone really paying attention? After all, its Thanksgiving. Take a break, give thanks, enjoy the family (and the bird), and worry about the world?s issues next week. Happy holiday?

Yes, it?s still a small, small world. These days, developments in tiny Ireland and huge China seem to have greater effect on the domestic markets than earnings releases or transactional news closer to home. But at the end of the day (week), investors surveyed the global and domestic landscapes, gave a collective yawn, and the equity indexes closed little changed from where they began. Is it time for some turkey yet?

Investors surveyed the landscape in the aftermath of two major market moving events (Fed stimulus and midterm election), retreated from their recent optimism, and booked profits heading into the homestretch of the year. Despite the overall success of another earnings season, investors fretted over the global progress (or lack thereof) from the G20 meeting of world finance ministers and news that China may have inflationary problems on its hands.

Dissecting election results, a Fed policy meeting statement, several key economic releases, and new earnings reports can prove pretty stressful. This week saw a somber Obama offer an olive branch to Republicans following their big victory in the midterms. Bear in mind, Prez Clinton suffered a similar fate in 1994 and lived to fight another day. Politicos now expect conciliation over taxes, health care, offshore drilling, and other GOP action items as Big Oil, Big Pharma, and Wall Street prepare for another boom. (The pressure is on, Speaker Boehner.)

October 2010 comes to a close and, despite little movement in the key indexes for the week, equities experienced another solid month. Earnings, Fed-Speak, and midterms gave investors more than enough to keep themselves busy and next week promises more of the same. Add a few major releases (manufacturing, labor) to the mix, and investors/traders can expect little sleep over the course of the week. (For that matter, neither can parents and siblings of newborns?pic attached.)

All in all, a relatively ?eventful? week. Quarterly earnings remained favorable (for the most part). The Fed moved a step closer to a new ?stimulus.? Politicos upped the election-year grandstanding. China?s economy took a tumble (we should all tumble so far). And, my wife gave birth to another daughter (Zoe Erin). Plenty of reasons for celebration. (Beware of typos this week.)

Anyone miss those doldrums of summer? The days of light volume? The vacations from trading desk? Well, these days, the 24-hour news cycle is coming fast and furious: Bernanke wants to create inflation; big banks are ripping off Main Street America again through foreclosures; corporations are posting higher earnings (but what about revenues?). Investors had plenty to digest during the week and should have plenty more in the days to come. While the uncertainty remains, the ?somewhat? bullish trend seems to continue (at least for now).

Earnings season; labor reports; Fed-speak; political grandstanding; hostile offers; currency battles?say what you want, but the markets sure aren?t boring these days. With plenty of uncertainty still in the air, the ?bulls? remain firmly in control (for now) and equities keep rolling along (even past 11k on the Dow). Nothing like a friendly trend.

The economy remains unsteady as an uncertain labor picture continues to limit consumer activity. And yet, corporations have accumulated trillions of dollars in cash and money markets yielding near 0 percent have forced managers to seek other options. Looking ahead, the Fed's stimulus debate wages on although many expect a more limited bond buying program than the $1.7 trillion one offered last year. As for the markets, companies still have lots of cash looking for a home and hopefully equities have more room to run.

So much for ?sour? Septembers. This year, ?super? September is more appropriate. The bulls were out in force last month as equities experienced their best September since 1939. The week was met with some profit-taking and quarter-end window dressing (is that still allowed?) as investors eyed an uncertain Fed policy and a heated election season.

Four weeks and counting. In August, investors feared the worst and equities were on a downward spiral. And now for something completely different. As September nears a close, the exact opposite is true and a bullish feel has taken over. An odd message about inflation and some concerning euro indicators were overshadowed by renewed strength in housing and manufacturing and more boardroom confidence as equities rose for the fourth consecutive week. As for October???

Some believe the Fed should restart the bond-buying program to help keep long-term interest rates low, thereby encouraging additional corporate borrowing and bank lending. Others fear that the program has a very limited chance of success and worry that inflation may become a not-so-welcome byproduct of such a move. With the summer well in the rearview mirror and trading desks back at full staff, market volume could pick up next week, and hopefully the excessive daily volatility will ease somewhat.

Labor Day?Religious holiday?hardly worth coming to work at all this week. After some early fears about European financial institutions being more ?stressed? than initially reported, investors (who chose to work this week) focused on some positive signs in the economy. On light volume, stocks traded relatively flat, while fixed income investors struggled to digest all the new supply (treasury and corporate). By next week, the summer doldrums should be long forgotten and investors can once again get back to work and focus on the keys to the markets.

What a difference a month makes. While naysayers and pessimists dominated the investor sentiment in August, the eternal optimists stepped forward in September (well, at least, for the first three days) and made a statement about perceived value in equities. Stocks took their cues from some decent economic releases (including key labor data) and bulls awoke from hibernation in time to stop the month-long carnage (and keep the Dow safely above 10k and ?in the black? for the year). Enjoy the holiday weekend (but don?t get complacent?sentiment can shift on a dime).

Despite the increased boardroom confidence (dealmaking), investors carried their bearish tone into Friday?s session with many anticipating a weekly close below the critical 10k level on the Dow. Somehow they perceived good news in a downwardly revised GDP release and comments from Bernanke that future Fed stimulus may be in order. In reality, the light volume these days may imply little conviction for any direction in the markets and the real tone will not be set until after Labor Day when vacations end and traders are back at their desks in full force.

Positive earnings AND an array of new M&A activity. Taken together, these two factors should mean one thing?strength in equities. Unfortunately, investors looked past the week?s business headlines and focused on the economic data, much of which depicted a sluggish recovery. Many skeptical investors took the easy way out and turned to the safe-haven of treasuries in lieu of the riskier equities.

No doubt, investor sentiment can shift on a dime. Perhaps, we can blame some of the market moves on overreaction and light volume from the end of summer blahs. After closing out the second quarter on a sour note, the equity market regained its bullish form in July, but again hit a serious road block this week. A perceived pessimistic Fed statement following the policy meeting sent investors running for cover as four straight down days left the major indexes back ?in-the-red? for the year.

Although the economy remains in recovery mode, the labor statistics confirmed that it may not be as strong as many were hoping. Several quarters of lackluster growth appear to be on the horizon. Even though the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5 percent, the June payroll data was revised lower and the 'underemployment' rate stands at a high 16.5 percent. Retailers braced for a feeble 'back-to-school' shopping season as same-store sales for July came in below expectations and department stores and teen retailers reported the most disappointing results.

A couple of Fed sightings, some mixed earnings reports, and a stand against profane emails. At the end of the day (week), the markets were little changed from where they began. Seems hardly worth coming in this week (though the month of July was pretty successful for equities).

After riding high for the first few months of the year, investors faced the uncertainty of another major market downturn and watched those early profits disappear. In more recent times, they have been clawing their way back to breakeven territory. After some favorable earnings news and some decent economic (and banking) reports from Europe, the Dow and Nasdaq are virtually flat for the year and the S&P 500 is nearing the breakeven point. The small-cap Russell 2000 has fared a bit better thus far.

So much information; so little time to digest. While earnings season kicked off to some mixed results, investors also eyed critical news from BP, Goldman, Apple, the Fed, and even Playboy as they attempted to determine the next direction for the markets. The early weak euphoria was replaced by newfound late-week concerns and stocks did another about-face as the game of streaks continued. Aren?t the summers supposed to be slow and boring?

Enough with the rumors and innuendoes?the optimism and concerns?the favorable forecasts and downgrades?the fundamental number crunching and the charting?Let the earnings season begin. For weeks, some analysts have spoken of stronger comps and feared disappointments. Others looked at the economic recovery and continued to believe that enhanced manufacturing activity is just now beginning to show up in the profit numbers. The waiting is over?Alcoa kicks off the season on Monday.

So is the temporary pullback actually much more? Since setting recent highs in April, equities have tumbled over 15% and are dangerously close to official bear market territory (>20%). The dramatic volatility has forced many retail (individual) investors back to the sidelines and to the safe-haven of low-yielding treasuries. Then again, the summer months often bring significant price swings as traders head to the Hamptons and away from the daily grind (of flash trades).

As the quarter began, the economy continued its trek toward recovery; confidence had returned to corporate boardrooms; and investors were pouring their ?cash-on-the sidelines? back into risky assets. Just when all seemed right in the world again, tiny Greece (and huge BP) began dominating the headlines. (Remember when a mere volcano was big news?)

Get used to this volatility and market uncertainty - it could last a while. This week, the naysayers won out again as concerns about the upcoming earnings season emerged and talk of a possible double-dip in Europe made its way into the Fed?s policy meeting. Financial reform appears to be headed to the Prez?s desk. The week found personal conflicts on the military front, a potential loss of the Budget Director, and the realization that a federal judge may have more power over issues of deepwater drilling. Is it time for the July 4th vacation yet? (Will we be able to afford the gasoline?)

As politicos took shots oil company execs, the joint strategy from the oil giants seemed apparent?throw BP under the bus: ??a dramatic departure from the industry norm in deepwater drilling?,? ?what went wrong at this well that did not occur at the 14,000 other deepwater wells that have been successfully drilled around the world?,? ?an independent investigation of the accident will show that this tragedy was preventable.? BP?s chairman and CEO expressed ?deep regret? over the spill?s impact (though both denied any involvement in key decisions leading up to the disaster).

So just who is corporate public enemy number one these days: BP? Goldman Sachs? AIG? While BP has been garnering much of the negative attention these days, Goldman?s unfavorable image resurfaced (and, of course, AIG always remains lurking in the background, especially whenever Goldman?s challenges are revealed). This week, the markets tried to disregard that negativity and equities enjoyed their first ?up? week in the past month. Even a late-week lower-than-expected retail sales release couldn?t overcome the new-found optimism of some well-timed ECB and Fed comments.

Move over Greece?here comes Spain. While one tiny euro country dominated the press for months, another looks to be taking over the headlines. This week, Spain announced significant budget cuts, and then its debt was downgraded by Fitch right before the weekend began (and after many traders had departed). China offered a ?vote of confidence? for the euro-zone (at least, before the Fitch move). At home, the numbers continue to impress and say ?recovery,? though investors can?t help but keep an eye (or two) on Europe as equities suffered their worst month since February 2009.

Up 400, down 37, up 150, down 114, down 160. Say no more?volatility has returned to the equity markets. Fears of a European contagion practically wiped out the euphoria from a European bailout. Doesn?t anyone pay attention to domestic news anymore? Data indicates a nice recovery. Earnings continue to reflect growth. Corporate boardroom wreak of optimism. The week ended on a sour note, but please don?t forget the positives.

So when is a 350 point down day considered a good thing? Perhaps, after it recovered from an earlier decline of almost 1,000 points? For a week at least, bullish investors went into hibernation and the bears reappeared, warning everyone about Greece, Goldman, Congress, deficits, the Fed, earnings, inflation, and everything else that could negatively impact the markets. Add a few potential technical computer glitches and maybe a heavy trading finger or two and you have one of the worst weeks among equities ever (memories of 2008).

Goldman?s Fabulous Fab may not seem so fabulous these days, at least, not to the grandstanding Congresspersons and federal prosecutors. During the week, investors should have had plenty to cheer about: earnings remained strong, the economy continued in rebound mode, the Fed offered some positive comments and kept rates unchanged at low levels. However, equities plummeted as news from the EU raised some additional concerns about the global economy and the perpetual bailouts of other European countries (Spain and Portugal). And, as for Goldman Sachs?memories of 1990 Drexel Burnham?

What did more long-term damage to the global economy: Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano or Goldman Sachs? This week, both stories dominated the news and the volcano eruption seemed likely to go away long before the recurring financial 'villain.' While the rising price tag of the airline shutdown in Europe pushed close to $2 billion, the harm caused by the alphabet of subprime mortgage derivatives (CDO/CDS ? both real and synthetic) had even greater implications. Next week expect all eyes to turn to the new statement from the Fed on the Federal Funds rate.

Earnings season, tax day, Greek bailout, more ?controversial? matters at Goldman. So what else is new? With analysts having some ?great expectations? for 1st quarter earnings, the initial week did not disappoint (sans Alcoa). The economic numbers continue to produce some favorable results and the Fed is saying all of the right things. Even the labor sector looks to be improving. By week?s end, investors may have been looking for an excuse to take some profits and SEC/Goldman provided them just the right selling motivation. Much ado about nothing? Time will tell.

Heading into the first official week of reporting, several companies already raised earnings projections and shed a bit more optimism on the quarter just passed. Still the 'too far, too fast' naysayers believe the decent expected earnings results are already built into the market and Dow 11k does not justify the current level of corporate or economic activity. In short?Greece continued to struggle; treasury supply was absorbed reasonably well; oil pushed higher (then lower); Greenspan and Rubin got grilled; Bernanke hedged his bets.

The Brounes & Associates market/economic commentary for the week ended April 2, 2010. For those of you forced to get up early for the labor numbers, here you go. The economy added 162k jobs in March, the best showing in three years, while the jobless rate held steady at 9.7 percent. For those of you still asleep (or who just been back to sleep)?enjoy your holiday (and don?t worry about how those temp census workers impacted the number)

Ron Brounes' recap of the prior quarter's market activity.

Last week's data revealed continued economic recovery, even though housing continues to lag, an alarming trend given that future Fed moves could negatively impact the sector. Optimists still hope that dismal housing numbers reflect poor winter conditions, however, and will reverse themselves in the coming months. As the first quarter comes to a close, expect managers to rebalance positions, take some profits and even lock in losses for tax purposes. The new month will bring a plethora of economic data, highlighted by the unemployment rate late in the week.

Welcome to March Madness. The time when the world looks on to ascertain the level of financial support to that European superpower of Greece?the time when politicos ignore each other and move forward with key legislation in a purely partisan manner (so what else is new?)?the time when Bernanke has to teach an Economics 101 class to elected officials?the time when Google says goodbye to the fastest growing Internet market?and the time when investors quit following the markets because Old Dominion is playing (and beating) Notre Dame.

. Let the rally continue. As the country (world for that matter) celebrated the one year anniversary of the market turnaround (bull market sounds too encouraging), investors took time to reflect on just where we have been and where we may be going. Buyers emerged again (though on a smaller scale?

Ron Brounes' weekly market and economic update.

Ron Brounes' weekly recap of market and economic news.

Traders were eager to help the markets regain upward momentum after the President's Day weekend. Favorable news about Europe's future role in helping Greece and other countries with their budgetary issues fueled trader optimism, as did positive earnings reports and signals that manufacturing was leading the economic recovery with no signs of inflation. Equities closed higher on each of four trading days and approached break-even for the year.

Ron Brounes' weekly market recap

Ron Brounes' weekly market and economic recap.

Ron Brounes? weekly market recap.

Politics and investors make strange bedfellows and, for the time being, the two do not seem to get along very well. Despite some reasonably favorable earnings reports, investors instead took their cu