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Developed Asia Pacific: Economy Trends Update April 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
Though Japanese exports exceeded imports in March 2015, weak domestic spending appears to have impacted the country’s nascent economic recovery. Wage growth needs to trickle down to workers employed in smaller Japanese firms, which would also push up inflation. Thankfully, the Bank of Japan has said it will hold its stimulus program in place until economic growth picks up pace.
See No Evil: What We Chose to Ignore in the April Jobs Report
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
We live in an age where bad economic news is not only unwelcome, but it is routinely overlooked or excused. On the other hand, good news is spotted and trumpeted even when it doesn't exist. An ideal illustration of this dangerous tendency towards collective selectivity came last week when the markets and the media somehow turned an awful employment report into an ideal data set that confirmed all optimism and contained nothing but good news for investors. In truth, it was anything but.
Louis-Vincent Gave: The World's Most Crowded Trade
by Robert Huebscher,
Investors are paid to adapt, not to forecast, according to Louis-Vincent Gave, and three changes are occurring globally that all portfolios must accommodate. One of them is a position that is missing from virtually every investor's allocation.
Q1 Letter
by Team of Grey Owl Capital Management,
Grey Owl’s strategies all performed well in the first quarter. The good performance came despite US GDP growth of just 0.2%, continually lowered earnings expectations, and volatile equity and bond markets. Below we discuss the current environment including the now absolute fixation by investors on every Fed comment, our continued focus on an all-weather approach, and our best and worst performing securities during the quarter.
Global Economic Overview and Equity Commentaries: March 2015
by Team of Thomas White International,
The global economy is facing subdued growth in the short term, as adverse weather and a stronger currency have slowed the pace of U.S. expansion. Unusually severe winter weather on the U.S. East coast restricted business and consumer activity during the first three months of the year.
The U.K. Election Surprises Everyone
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust,
Will the United Kingdom remain united? And will it choose to continue its economic alliance with the rest of the continent? These are key questions not just for Britain, but for the rest of the world. Whatever happens next, this election will certainly prove to be as important as it was billed to be, but perhaps not for the reasons originally thought.
MLPs: Providing Growth and Income Potential Despite Low Oil Prices
With oil prices down around approximately 50% since June 2014, investors are increasingly wary of the entire energy sector. Even given this environment, master limited partnerships (MLPs) represent an energy investment that we believe may weather short-term volatility in energy prices, benefit from the US’s long-term infrastructure needs, and provide attractive income potential for investors.
Threats To Worry About, And Those To Ignore, In This Equity Market
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
Understanding where headwinds lie is not academic. If macro or financials were the main headwinds, we would expect this bull market to be near an end. That it has more to do with sentiment and valuation implies that a reset in equity prices (lower) will likely set up the next leg higher in 2015 and 2016.
Be Vigilant - not Paranoid - about CyberSecurity
Sony, JP Morgan Chase, Target, Home Depot attacked. Russian, Chinese, North Korean, stateless hackers blamed. Stories about identity theft, e-mail hacks, and elder abuse blanket the news. No wonder many of our clients fear it's just a matter of time before the cyber criminals attack them personally. Fortunately, with a reasonable amount of vigilance, you can avoid becoming a victim.
What's Next for the Dollar and Currencies?
by Axel Merk of Merk Investments,
In anticipation of higher U.S. rates and lower rates elsewhere, the greenback had enjoyed a dramatic rally. Has the tide turned, or is the dollar merely taking a breather? We believe there are threats and opportunities hidden underneath recent market action. Below is a closer look in an effort to allow investors to better understand the dynamics that might be unfolding.
Region Insights – Europe – Investment Opportunity in Europe is Compelling
While Europe abounds in world-class companies, macro concerns in 2014 obscured compelling opportunities for price appreciation and earnings power that we believe will surprise to the upside in 2015. Investors have woken up to the opportunity in the first two months of 2015 and many European exchanges are off to a fast start. We think more gains are ahead, particularly in small- to mid-size companies in Europe.
International Equities: Another Turn of the Wheel
by David Ruff of Forward Investing,
It’s a truism that markets move in cycles and that the ideal time to invest is right at or near the start of an upswing. Diversification is another key tenet of Investing 101. Yet inertia and the pull of the crowd often lead investors to concentrate assets in markets that may be nearing their peak while ignoring potentially more promising opportunities.
Crystal Balls, Likely Outcomes and Portfolio Planning
by Robert Holton of Cleary Gull,
In presentations to fellow professionals, we often make self-deprecating comments similar to this – “And then later we’ll tell you exactly when the Fed will raise interest rates. We’ll just grab our crystal ball and take a look.” That simple joke, variations of which are repeated over and over among financial professionals, draws on fairly deep-seated anxiety about the predictability of financial markets.
The Embarrassment of Transparency
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
Over the past decade or so, "transparency" has become one of the buzzwords that has guided the Federal Reserve's culture. The word was meant to convey the belief that central banking was best done for all to see in the full light of day, not in the murky back rooms of Washington and New York. The Fed seems to be on a mission to prove that its operations are benevolent, fair, predictable, and equitable.
Should Investors Unload Their Mortgage REITs?
by Keith Jurow,
Lured by irresistible double-digit yields in 2012 and early 2013, investors dived into mortgage REITs with abandon. Having discussed the serious risks of equity REITs in my previous article, now is a good time to examine whether mortgage REITs pose similar risks for the unwary.
Improving Client Communication Skills
Clients describe a void to me; they will call to ask questions about an issue and might wait days to hear back. I know that my staff is working on finding an answer, and that's why they don't respond. But the clients don't know this, and it makes for a poor client experience. Any tips on improving the response time and communication?
The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There is a financial crisis on the horizon. It is a crisis that all the Central Bank interventions in the world cannot cure. It is a financial crisis that will continue to change the economic landscape of America for decades to come.
How to Dress for a Rainy Day
The answer is the Lollapalooza effect. The question you may recall from last month’s Absolute Return Letter - what’s the opposite of a perfect storm, or put another way, what do you call it when an unusual combination of constructive factors creates an outcome which is extraordinarily positive? A reader was kind enough to provide the answer, which was coined by Charles Munger years ago. As a non-American, the answer was at first complete gobbledygook to me, but a quick Google search convinced me that the answer is absolutely legitimate. Thank you.
On My Radar: “The Rodney Dangerfield Expansion”
"Earnings don't move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve board. And whatever you do, focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity. Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets." - Stan Druckenmiller
The Long Reach of Technology in Taiwan
Taiwan is one of the high-tech epicenters of the world, and while it headquarters some of the industry's most dominant players, the country is also home to a large and diverse group of smaller companies that provide a vital supporting role to the growing demands of the global markets.
A Sense of an Ending
Having turned the corner on my 70th year, like prize winning author Julian Barnes, I have a sense of an ending. Death frightens me and causes what Barnes calls great unrest, but for me it is not death but the dying that does so. After all, we each fade into unconsciousness every night, do we not?
SPY's Trading Range is as Tight as December Before a 5% Drop
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
The trading range for SPY is tighter now than at any time since December before a 5% drop. SPY's trading range is likely to expand and, on balance, it seems more likely that the expansion will be to the downside rather than the upside. That has been the most common outcome in the past and there are a number of supporting reasons to suggest that it will be the case this time as well.
Show Me the Stocks, Not the Cash, Say Optimistic CEOs
In early March, I made the case that there’s no greater vote of confidence in a company’s growth prospects than when its top officers put some skin in the game and buy their own company stock. Among the examples I used were Warren Buffett, who owns millions of shares in Berkshire Hathaway; Elon Musk, who purchased over $100 million worth of Tesla stock in 2013; and myself, the largest shareholder of U.S. Global Investors. Another example of how bullish an executive is on his own company is when he chooses to forego a base salary entirely and instead be compensated in company stock.
Pondering Halftime Adjustments
At the beginning of the year, we wrote about an aging bull market that we thought could be ridden, but with the caveat that one wouldn’t want to take too much risk given the magnitude of the move, current valuation levels in the U.S., and an overall evidence profile that was clearly mixed with pockets of both strength and weakness. When weighing the evidence, our dashboards offered no reason to reach for additional risk this late in the cycle, but instead we tried to focus on some big picture themes that could help us find attractive opportunities to position for.
Greece: Stuck in the Middle
Opinion polls show that many Greek voters support Athens's tough negotiation tactics. But the polls also show that most Greeks want their country to remain in the eurozone—but to do so would require agreeing with the zone's austerity demands. I think this would be the definition of a pickle.
The Dollar Joins the Currency Wars
by Nouriel Roubini of Project Syndicate,
Until recently, US policymakers were not overly concerned about the dollar’s strength; America’s growth prospects were stronger than in Europe and Japan. But things look different today, and officials' exchange-rate jitters are becoming increasingly pronounced.
Analysts Love to Talk about China but Should Focus on South Korea
by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree, Inc.,
This week Professor Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz chatted with Jeff Weniger, Investment Strategist at BMO Global Asset Management. We spoke at length about the impact of the U.S. dollar on global markets. I found our conversation about the impact of easy monetary policy on economies such as China and South Korea particularly noteworthy.
The Fed's Countdown to Liftoff
Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist for Allianz Global Investors, previews the upcoming FOMC meeting and its implications for the first interest-rate hike since 2006: "Suffice it to say that the Taylor Rule, which fairly accurately predicted the fed funds rate from 1988 through 2008, might as well be in my attic with my Duran Duran albums, Benetton rugbies and other vestiges of the '80s and '90s..."
That Silly Mr. Market
by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs,
I’m sure you remember my friend Mr. Market. He was introduced to me a few years after I entered the business of investment advice via Ben Graham’s book The Intelligent Investor, and for most years since I have found him to be quite fair and reasonable. Whether I wanted to sell or buy any one of the thousands of securities available to the public, he would make an intelligent opinion of its value and proceed to close the deal at that price.
Going Fast or Going Far
The college basketball season ended in historic fashion recently with two iconic coaches reaching new pinnacles in their profession. Coach K at Duke won his fifth national championship moving him past legendary Kentucky coach Adolph Rupp into second place all-time. Meanwhile, on the women's side, Geno Auriemma led Connecticut to its 3rd consecutive title, and 10th overall under his reign.
Stand and Deliver: Will the US Economy Rebound as Expected in the Second Quarter?
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock,
Most market watchers are blaming another bad winter for this year’s rough start, and they’re assuming a strong second-quarter rebound. One obscure economic statistic calls that view into question.
Schwab Market Perspective: Heads, Bulls Win; Tails, Bears Lose?
The bears can’t seem to grab hold of this market, but that doesn’t mean full-speed ahead for the bulls either. Grinding generally higher with increased volatility seems to be the course for now, but the possibility of a correction still exists. Diversification, discipline and patience is required. International equity exposure should be part of most investors’ portfolios, to a level commiserate with risk tolerance. European risks related to Greece seem to have lessened, while the Chinese stock market doesn’t appear grossly overvalued, although a pullback from the recent run is possi
Searching for Clarity Among the Dots
In 1886 Georges Seurat finished his most famous painting, A Sunday Afternoon on the Island of La Grande Jatte. Seurat used a new technique, Pointillism, in which small dots of color are applied to the canvas to express an image. More recently, Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee (the FOMC) updated their own version of Pointillism to express an image called the dot plot – a graphical representation of each FOMC member’s forecast of future federal funds (fed funds) rates.
Results 7,951–8,000
of 10,168 found.
