Ever since the pandemic – when surging housing demand collided with a decade of underbuilding – housing affordability has become an increasingly important political issue and a larger focus for policymakers.

Today, I freely confess that I don’t have that 2007 certitude. I can certainly see a crisis coming in our future, but the timing, severity, and circumstances around it are cloudy at best. I can make an argument for numerous outcomes.

Over the past year, markets have been shaped by rapid advances in AI, elevated geopolitical tensions – especially involving Iran – and persistent uncertainty around global trade. In environments like this, successful investing rarely comes from chasing headlines or reacting emotionally. It’s about discipline, staying anchored to fundamentals and executing a clear long‑term game plan.

During Exchange 2026, experts and thought leaders from firms across the country gathered. They shared different approaches and ideas for tackling the market’s biggest challenges.

A ceasefire in the Middle East is the latest twist for investors who have grown increasingly reactive to each new headline. Volatility has surged: prior to the ceasefire, the VIX had roughly doubled this year and averaged 25 in March—about 67% above year-end levels—underscoring just how uncertain the path forward has been.

While recent market performance reflects optimism over potential geopolitical de-escalation, underlying economic data reveals a complex landscape of intensifying price pressures and cooling growth.

Franklin Templeton Institute examines the evolution of private credit, its risk/return characteristics, and why commercial real estate debt represents a viable alternative to traditional fixed income options.

In environments of geopolitical stress, diversification^* is tested, and investors may need to think more wholistically about the assets included in their portfolio.

The general field called “credit” has seen massive innovation over the course of my career. An Oaktree colleague asked me about the developments that brought the credit sector to where it is today. I came up with the following list.

The traditional 60/40 portfolio is undergoing a structural renovation, but the fixed income sleeve is proving difficult to stabilize.

Bond traders held onto wagers that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates once this year after data confirmed that US inflation quickened in March as the Iran war led to higher gasoline prices.

US equity futures stalled after a seven-day rally as investors weighed whether a fragile truce between Washington and Tehran can hold, and oil headed for its biggest weekly loss in nine months.

By at least one metric in the $9.5 trillion foreign-exchange markets, demand for the dollar is ebbing amid the tenuous ceasefire between the US and Iran.

The first quarter of the year has offered an early reminder that markets rarely move in straight lines. After the extraordinary enthusiasm that carried investors through 2025, much of it centered on the promise of artificial intelligence, the new year has quickly reintroduced elements of uncertainty.

U.S. headline employment rebounded strongly in March, posting the largest monthly gain since late 2024. The jobs rebound, which was broad-based across industries, was a welcome sign after February’s data showed a sharp decline not usually seen outside of recessions.

Energy-driven inflation and geopolitical risk increase the likelihood of higher-for-longer interest rates, which listed infrastructure has several mechanisms for passing through to earnings.

The famed economist John Maynard Keynes said almost a century ago that “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” He was referring to the unpredictable nature of investor sentiment: an amorphous, hard-to-define concept that nonetheless plays a major role across various asset classes.

While Wall Street obsesses over the Magnificent Seven, a handful of under-the-radar forces may shape the next leg of this market, for better and for worse.

While every market downturn is unique, history offers a crucial lens for understanding recovery. This chart series provides a comprehensive overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the $1929$ peak, comparing their recovery paths through the S&P $500$'s close on March 31, 2026.

Discover how abrdn’s K-1 free ETF outpaced gold and the S&P 500 in March 2026 by providing broad, tax-efficient commodities exposure.

Global equities declined during a volatile first quarter as the war in Iran roiled energy markets and fueled inflation fears that destabilized the economic growth outlook. Mounting geopolitical hazards add to existing worries around concentrated equity markets and the potential for AI to disrupt businesses.

Gambling is rising in popularity, blurring lines between betting vs. investing. Misunderstanding the key differences can endanger financial security.

Given the combined weight of these markets within EM portfolios, Templeton Global Investments believe incremental improvements in capital discipline could have a meaningful impact on aggregate index-level earnings quality.

Geopolitical conflict involving Iran disrupted energy markets, driving oil and the dollar higher while stocks, bonds, and gold fell. Despite volatility, economic signals are mixed but stabilizing, especially in manufacturing. Muhlenkamp outperformed markets, increased cash and international exposure, while remaining cautious amid inflation, policy uncertainty, and ongoing war risks.

A geopolitical shock in the Middle East sent oil prices surging more than +70% in Q1, erasing all expected Fed rate cuts and testing how well-diversified portfolios actually were. For many investors, the answer was: considerably better than the S&P 500’s -4.3% return suggests.

Global bonds surged Wednesday on news that the US and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire, pausing a war that roiled markets for weeks by delivering the worst oil shock in years.

European stocks soared the most in a year as investors rushed to buy stocks in the wake of the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

At Exchange 2026, key thought leaders from firms across the country gathered in Las Vegas to share their ideas for navigating today’s macroeconomic uncertainty and the future of ETFs.

Despite West Texas Intermediate crude climbing to $111.54, U.S. stocks ended last week higher for the first time since February 20.

Fixed income markets have faced a challenging stretch following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Sharply rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns have pushed US Treasury yields higher, and municipal bonds have moved in tandem.

Across corporate lending markets, some investments are easier to trade and exit than others – differences that deserve particular attention today.

As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk.

Fresh data on the US labor market and new research from the Federal Reserve suggest that the conventional wisdom around employment growth being sluggish is wrong.

Developments in the Middle East continue to be, without a doubt, taking center stage for the financial markets. However, it’s important to keep tabs on the U.S. macro-outlook, especially the labor market and inflation aspects.

Last week, the stock market rally was one of the best performances in nearly a year. The S&P 500 surged 3.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, and the bulls declared the correction over. As I have stated before, having watched markets for more than 35 years, I have come to recognize the difference between a relief rally and the end of a corrective cycle.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, jet fuel prices in the U.S. have more than doubled. According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the year-to-date percent change in U.S. jet fuel prices stood above 120% as of the end of March.

The economy continues to show resilience, and the March jobs report reinforced that view. Payroll growth came in stronger than expected, prior months were not meaningfully revised away, and the unemployment rate edged lower. Wage growth eased, but the broader message was clear: the labor market remains too firm to support any near-term case for Fed easing.

The US-Iran conflict has altered Iran’s regional influence and, more broadly, has many other consequences. It pressures government relations as well as global and financial market trading.

With the conclusion of a volatile first quarter in 2026, the Amplify Energy & Natural Resources Covered Call ETF (NDIV) demonstrated the resilience of its underlying index (VettaFi Energy and Natural Resources Covered Call Index).

It was a rough first quarter for the Broadleaf Growth Equity Portfolio and the markets in general as investors tried to identify market leadership buffeted by AI spending concerns, talk of escalating private credit market risks, and ultimately, the emergence of War in Iran.

With oil prices spiking and inflation concerns remaining elevated, many investors are looking for ways to diversify beyond the S&P 500. This week, Chuck Jaffe and Todd Rosenbluth, dive into the FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources Index Fund (GUNR).

Breakeven real rates can inform us how much of a total return portfolio’s realized risk premium would be required merely to catch up to the benefits of delayed claiming, arguably an inefficient use of the equity risk premium.

I have written for years that oil prices act like a tax on the economy, both in the US and globally. It is actually simply the price paid, but the effect on the economy is similar to a tax. If the price goes up, it takes more money from individual consumers that would otherwise be saved or spent somewhere else. Just like taxes.

After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary.

The war in Iran has been costly, in a number of ways. First and foremost, the humanitarian consequences have been substantial: the price paid by those in harm’s way is immeasurable.

Bond traders kicked off the week betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the coming year, with the Treasuries market holding steady ahead of President Donald Trump’s extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets often react sharply to geopolitical developments, but just as often, they overreact. Investors today are grappling with heightened global tensions, rising oil prices and uncertainty around central bank policy. The key question is whether these risks meaningfully alter the economic outlook or simply create short-term volatility.

March 2026 ETFs: Investors pivot to safety with $29B in short-term bonds and a record $5B in Energy as Tech faced a Q1 recalibration.

A look at ETF flows for the month of March suggests caution is back in vogue. Fixed income ETFs showed serious muscle in the asset gathering race last month, capturing nearly 45% of net creations.

Rising demand for critical microelectronics, bolstered by AI capex and defense spending, is driving semiconductor prices higher and posing upside risks to global goods inflation.