Over my lifetime I have invested in many different things. In the process of doing that, I have learned that there are really only two types of investors. As an investor, you are either active or passive. Being active implies directly managing or being in control of your investment.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Global markets have been relatively calm this summer despite many uncertainties. Geopolitical risks have continued across the globe, and in some areas, looming monetary policy changes also appear likely. A key question for many investors is whether the sleepy summer period of low volatility will give way to a more turbulent autumn.
Unmet borrower needs continue to grow in the U.S. commercial real estate lending market.
Countless articles have been written in the past 10 years predicting (or warning) of China’s imminent financial demise, with the number of articles accelerating in recent years amid China’s debt build-up in the post Global Financial Crisis period. Investing on the basis of a “China collapse” view of the world would likely have resulted in more risk-averse portfolios in the emerging debt space and, hence, lower returns in recent years.
It’s no secret that Russell Investments expects active managers with relatively low assets under management to have better average performance. But as Investment Strategist Leola Ross explains, increasing assets under management is not necessarily the kiss of death.
Frothy stocks and well bid bonds can undercut portfolio performance if rates move higher, though long/short equity strategies can support long-run returns.
We have seen a powerful recovery in asset prices in the wake of the global financial crisis (GFC). We cannot forget, however, that more than $15 trillion in asset values evaporated in 2008–2009, wiping out gains earned in the bull markets of the 1990s and early 2000s.
The Panic of 2008 was damaging in more ways than people think. Yes, there were dramatic losses for investors and homeowners, but these markets have recovered. What hasn't gone back to normal is the size and scope of Washington DC, especially the Federal Reserve. It's time for that to change.
While the company is run by very talented people who will do a great job getting us excited about the categories of products they are already in, the company’s genius died with Steve Jobs.
Has productivity growth slowed in the U.S. and around the world, as is the conventional wisdom? Or is that just an illusion, caused by the difficulty of measuring the quality improvements that constitute the bulk of productivity growth? In a provocative interview, Woody Brock puts his unique spin on questions like these.
I’m writing to you from Chicago where I am attending the Morningstar ETF Conference. Vanguard’s global chief economist, Joe Davis, kicked off the event Wednesday evening advising investors to expect lower returns and rocky markets for the next two to three years.
This letter will be the first of a series in which I outline my vision for the next 5–10–15–20 years of global economics. I understand that there is a substantial amount of hubris involved in such an undertaking, so I will approach the topic gingerly.
“There They Go Again . . . Again” of July 26 has generated the most response in the 28 years I’ve been writing memos, with comments coming from Oaktree clients, other readers, the print media and TV. I also understand my comments regarding digital currencies have been the subject of extensive – and critical – comments on social media, but my primitiveness in this regard has kept me from seeing them. The responses and the time that has elapsed have given me the opportunity to listen, learn and think. Thus I’ve decided to share some of those reflections here.
China put a halt to new ICOs and crypto transactions. In response, ethereum tumbled as much as 15.8 percent on Monday, or $55 a unit. Bitcoin lost $394 a unit.
The potential failure to raise the debt ceiling has never been the problem. It's the debt that's the problem, and the ceiling is a tool to solve the problem that vote-seeking politicians are afraid to actually use.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing has led to a spike in reduced-carbon portfolios. But the standard investing approach may actually be lowering exposure to carbon alternatives like renewable energy.
As the global economy continues to muddle through, the days of easy monetary policy may have peaked – along with the period of ultra-low yields. We may begin to see changing policies as central banks re-evaluate, which could lead to jittery markets says Hans-Jörg Naumer, Global Head of Capital Markets & Thematic Research with Allianz Global Investors.
As the focus of my work is emerging markets, I don’t spend a lot of time in the United States anymore, even though I grew up there. But like many people, I took a bit of time off this summer to enjoy a visit with family. We traveled to Mackinac Island in the state of Michigan, situated in Lake Huron.
For most of this year, I’ve had a sense that the American middle class is increasingly growing, and that wages/incomes are increasing more than the Labor Department reports. I have been saving articles upon articles on this subject and was planning to extract the highlights and summarize them for you in the next week or two in these pages.
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
Instead of delving deep into one subject, I’ll give you my quick thoughts on several different items. They aren’t connected to each other, nor do they build up to any sort of conclusion. They’re just what is on my mind as we wrap up summer 2017.
Rarely have equity bulls and bears disagreed more than they do at present. We look at both the bull case and the bear case, and then we introduce a longer-term structural angle, which is largely ignored by both bulls and bears. This third side of the coin is based on the fact that inflation is structurally low, and that central banks may be committing a serious policy error by targeting 2% inflation, when it is almost impossible to drive inflation to those levels. Enjoy the read!
Below are some key data points and estimates that help contextualize the severity of Harvey and its aftermath.
The media has taken President Trump to task for all manner of false or exaggerated claims, but surprisingly little has been said about Trump’s most glaring forays into abject hypocrisy.
Every year in August I organize four lunches for serious investors on successive Fridays in eastern Long Island. There are different groups of 25—30 people at each one and many of the great names of the hedge fund, real estate and private equity world attend, along with some academics and government folk.
On August 21st many Americans witnessed the moon cast a historic but short-lived shadow across the United States. One day later, President Trump reversed his previously stated position on the 16 year old Afghan War, thereby eclipsing the possibility that the United States would finally come to its senses and rethink a failed strategy that is likely to fail for years, perhaps decades, to come.
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to begin the process of balance sheet normalization, or quantitative tightening, this fall. What kind of impact to markets is expected?
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (known as ASEAN) celebrated its 50-year anniversary in early August. The regional cooperative was established in 1967 with Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore as founding members. Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Cambodia later joined.
As China's domestic market continues to grow, so, too, does its economic power and ability to set global rules. With the country fast approaching a position similar to that of the US and Europe after World War II, much will depend on the policies it pursues in two key areas.
What is it worth to have a financial services coordinator who understands your clients’ needs and the language spoken by the specialized service providers they use? Today’s robo-advisors cannot provide the depth or breadth of coordination clients need. But you can, at least for your best clients. This should be a core of your value proposition.
I have written before how fantasy football is one of my favorite hobbies. For an analytical, data-obsessed sports fan like myself, it doesn’t really get any better than diving into statistics to try to draft a team of players that will beat my friends and win the trophy at the end of the season (and yes, we do have a real trophy).
Today we’ll look at reasons to be bullish on the equity markets, but I’ll also teach you a thing or two about trading.
The eurozone has been the brightest star on this year’s economic horizon. The region’s output expanded at a 2.5% pace during the second quarter and has been rising continuously for 48 consecutive months.
I hope investors have taken steps to prepare for some potentially disruptive economic storms, including this weekend’s central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and the possibility of a contentious battle in Congress next month over the budget and debt ceiling.
In a new white paper, “The Good Thing About Climate Change: Opportunities,” GMO’s Lucas White and Jeremy Grantham discuss the growing problem of climate change, the exciting investment possibilities in companies combating that peril and the best ways for investors to approach the opportunity.
Portfolio Analyst Stella Liu explains why, in today’s environment, we believe preserving capital may be more important than chasing growth.
This will be the first in a series of articles where I will cover popular and/or high profile stocks. The primary objective of this series will be to put a spotlight on the importance of forecasting future growth prior to making an investment decision.
Greg Dunn is a portfolio manager for Thornburg Investment Management. He manages the Thornburg International Growth Fund (TINGX), which has outperformed its benchmark by 540 basis points over the last 10 years. In this interview, he discussed his investment philosophy and what drove that outperformance. Please visit Thornburg Investment Management at booth 123 at Schwab IMPACT.
UFC and mixed martial arts (MMA) have seen their popularity grow in recent years from relative obscurity, banned in many states, to the mainstream. Does the current fight represent a view of the future (e.g. the NFL and the upstart AFL) or a novelty (e.g. the XFL)? The fight highlights the topic of convergence and its current poignancy, from boxing to politics to investments.
In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group takes a look at recent US economic data, and increased skepticism among many market participants about whether the Federal Reserve will implement another increase in interest rates before the end of the year.
This article explores the basics of cryptocurrencies and the important innovation they support, blockchain. I will also discuss whether Bitcoin, or another cryptocurrency, can become a true currency worthy of investment.
Within a small number of years, investors are likely to discover that they have allowed their assumptions about growth in U.S. GDP, corporate revenues, earnings, and their own investment returns to become radically misaligned with reality, and that Wall Street’s justifications for the present, offensive level of equity market valuations are illusory. Based on outcomes that have systematically followed prior valuation extremes, the accompanying adjustment in expectations is likely to be associated with one of the most violent market declines in U.S. history, even if interest rates remain persistently depressed.
For more than a decade and a half, my friend Alexander Green has been educating and entertaining investors as editor of numerous popular newsletters, many of which I’ve cited in my own writing.
The Trump administration took its first steps to address infrastructure Tuesday, with the president signing an executive order aiming to expedite environmental review and permitting processes. Some will decry the fact that these actions weren't accompanied by a multi trillion-dollar spending bill.
Jihan Diolosa, Associate Director of our UK Institutional team, poses questions to our lead multi-asset portfolio managers based on some of the key issues keeping investors awake at night.
The early optimism that President Trump would be able to reinvigorate domestic economic growth has faded as Congress struggled to pass health care legislation and confusion exists around Trump’s political agenda.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes
Following another underwhelming U.S. CPI report, it’s now entirely possible that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, currently at 1.5% – will end the year at 1.3%, a far cry from the central bank’s 2% target.
James Montier and Matt Kadnar, members of GMO’s Asset Allocation team, have just published a new white paper -- “The S&P 500: Just Say No” -- warning of the risks to investors throwing in the towel on valuation, diversification and active management in favor of a passive allocation to large-cap U.S. equities.