We entered into the current crisis with a whole financial system that had been incentivized by policymakers to take on excessive levels of debt and leverage. The turmoil we are seeing right now is the result of the unwinding of this leverage.
Here’s why the market crashes even without more bad news, like it did in October 1987 and from late 2007 through March 2009. But this time is different because there is a new set of actors on the stage, exacerbating the problem.
These extreme measures appear to be having great success, particularly in Asian countries. Whereas the number of cases continues to rise in Italy, Spain, Iran and elsewhere, the number has begun to stabilize, if not plateau, in Asian countries.
We expect to see a combination of anti-viral medications and vaccines develop over 6 to 12 months globally. We are seeing daily positive articles on the effectiveness of anti-virals from other countries. Vaccine development appears to be moving very quickly, and there is potential for a vaccine to get to people as soon as the end of 2020.
In an incredible reversal, investors pulled a record $12.2 billion out of municipal-bond mutual funds.
In a sign of how topsy-turvy financial assets are right now, risky high-yield bond ETFs have become relative havens and investors are fleeing government debt funds as fast as they can.
Are municipal bond issuers vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic? We assess key sectors, from states to hospitals to airports.
While it is certainly hoped by many that we are closer to the end of the liquidation cycle, than the beginning, the dollar funding crisis, a blowout in debt yields, and forced selling of assets, suggests there is likely more pain to come before we are done.
Without the right programs, this shortfall in credit availability will increase and it will further deepen the crisis.
As COVID-19 spread around the world in the early months of 2020, governments enacted quarantines, travel bans, school closings and other measures. Global supply chains were disrupted. Reduced demand is weighing on many industries, starting with travel, hospitality and leisure. Oil prices dropped after Saudi Arabia boosted production, in effect launching a price war with Russia. U.S. Treasury yields fell to record lows.
Municipal closed-end funds (“CEFs”) currently offer high levels of tax advantaged income and can often be purchased at a discount to their current net asset value.
As coronavirus-related market volatility expands into municipal bonds, the Franklin Municipal Bond Department explains how they are navigating an increasingly challenging muni-market environment. They also share reasons why they believe a longstanding preference for high-quality municipal bonds supports their efforts to turn volatility into opportunity.
Gundlach’s survey of the economic and financial destruction wrought by the coronavirus shows problems abound.
Over the last two weeks, our collective focus has been on the equity markets. But the sharp drop in prices among U.S. stocks has been matched by a dramatic spike in municipal bond yields. That has created a compelling, but little-noticed opportunity to buy safe, highly rated muni bonds at exceptional spreads to U.S. Treasury bonds.
Governments and central banks have started to respond more forcefully to the health crisis, enacting policy in an effort to limit long-term damage to the global economy.
A déjà vu of 2008 in markets lately? Mike explains why we think the coronavirus shock should not spark a 2008-style crisis.
When the world’s biggest debt market starts having major liquidity issues, investor panic rises to a whole new level. On March 12 and 13, after about a week of extraordinary dysfunction in the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve issued a major crisis response, expanding Treasury purchases and repurchase operations to boost liquidity and shore up so-called risk-free assets.
In this time of global crisis, thoughts of the now-canceled NCAA “March Madness” basketball tournament may be the farthest thing on our minds. But concerns for your clients’ financial futures have been heightened by the recent volatility. My article, which I wrote before the coronavirus crisis, reflects on a valuable parallel between predicting a national champion and achieving a desired investment return.
An ETF that bets winning stocks will keep on winning has held up quite well amid the recent bout of market turbulence. One reason: it’s got many of the same traits of a popular low-volatility fund.
In a surprise move on Sunday night, the Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate to the 0% to 0.25% range and announced a series of moves to address the economic threat posed by the novel coronavirus. The central bank used a full range of its potential policies to support the economy and financial system.
Stocks rebounded on Friday, ending a week of wide swings that drove major U.S. stock indexes into bear-market territory. Overall, it was a rough week for the stock markets.
Compared to past viral outbreaks, COVID-19 appears to be less fatal, yet it has received far more media coverage. Paradoxically, that may be part of the reason why it’s had a much bigger impact on public health and the economy relative to those other diseases.
The coronavirus could take us all someplace we really don’t want to go.
The Loomis Sayles Alpha Strategies team shares some insights as markets grapple with three issues: the impact of COVID-19, an oil fight and a crisis of confidence in Western governments.
The Fed announced two actions Thursday in response to stress in the market for U.S. Treasuries.
Stocks have plummeted this month as investors struggled to assess what impact the COVID-19 coronavirus may have on the economy.
Russ discusses the reasons why gold can be an effective hedge going forward.
Our four general rules to help keep clients calm and invested when markets turn choppy.
We have finally seen the end of the bull market, with the Dow dropping 20 percent from its highs and the S&P 500 following today. We are officially in a bear market, with all that implies. Stock markets around the world are down again today on the news.
Long-term perspective is key as coronavirus and falling oil prices roil markets. Members of the Matthews Asia investment team share their insights and outlook amid volatile markets.
U.S. stocks fell again on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing in bear market territory.
Back in the good ole’ days of mid-January, asset allocators could look to long-duration US government bonds as a refuge for stormy weather. Those days are no longer.
As the oil surplus builds, we expect U.S. crude oil to linger at $30-$40 per barrel for the next several months.
For those investors interested in investing for an increasing dividend income stream, the Dividend Aristocrats represent the crème de la crème. Standard & Poor’s produces this premier list of blue-chip dividend growth stocks that have increased their dividends for 25 consecutive years.
With markets reeling from concerns over the coronavirus and plummeting oil prices, the US Federal Reserve took another step Monday to shore up markets. The Fed has more in its toolbox, but fiscal policy may also be needed to fill a gap in the US economy.
Economic news will get worse before it gets better, but we expect the U.S. economy to pull through.
One of the keys to the outlook here is the ability of businesses to get to the other side of potentially acute short-term cash flow problems. Fiscal policy holds the necessary antidotes in its ability to provide targeted, material support to impacted sectors.
Fed rate cuts may be less effective at boosting the economy or markets as societies grapple with the spread of COVID-19, but other policy measures may help.
U.S. stocks plummeted on Monday, with the S&P 500 index closing down 7.6%, its worst day since 2008, capping two weeks of extreme volatility amid the spreading coronavirus epidemic.
A decisive and coordinated policy action is key to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. Mike explains why.
Global growth could follow a U-shaped path over the next few quarters, though substantial uncertainty remains as policymakers grapple with the impact of the coronavirus.
If I had written a commentary on how 4,000 people dying from the flu would topple global financial markets, I think I would have been deemed insane. Yet today that is exactly the story.
In the easiest of times (are they ever, really?) it’s futile to make predictions about the market with any semblance of accuracy. Clearly, these are not the easiest of times; so the futility is magnified. Even with non-stop coverage of COVID-19; with every question answered, there’s another question to ask.
The coronavirus is dominating the news and sparking panic in markets. We believe the options for policymakers are clear—but will they implement them?
We have a modest economic calendar. Only two reports will provide any hint about the coronavirus economic impact. The punditry will not be hampered. Without meaningful data, speculation blossoms. There is one idea that could help both your interpretation of data and your investment decisions.
We are likely experiencing more than just a “soft patch” currently despite the mainstream analysts’ rhetoric to the contrary. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape, even before the impact of COVID-19, and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term was already telling us just that.
COVID-19 fears continued to drive the financial markets. Share prices were volatile and bond yields dove further into record lows.
Volatility will persist until we get more clarity around the pace of contagion and the potential impact on the US economy – which could take time. Patience, not panic, is essential in order to make well-informed decisions.
Can policymakers minimize economic disruptions from COVID-19?
Warren Buffett boosted his stake in Delta Air Lines by 976,000 shares last week, raising his total holdings to 17.9 million shares. This was enough to bring Buffett’s ownership of Delta up to more than 11 percent.