This week saw the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Top researchers join public and private sector leaders to explore the issues facing the world. Every year features an outlook for key risks; this year, the risks felt less hypothetical than they might have in calmer times.
Investor sentiment toward China has soured after a tough year for the economy and stock market. But the painful economic transition is also creating real opportunity.
After initial optimism at the start of 2023 spurred strong performance, munis subsequently struggled as the Fed continued its tightening policy, raising fed fund rates to 5.25%−5.50%, before pausing in September.
Treasury yields have steadily climbed since the start of the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising back to 4.16% after reaching a low of 3.79% in late December.
It’s a seller’s market for infrastructure asset managers. Conventional and alternative investment firms are falling over themselves to expand in this lucrative area, and M&A is the easiest way for them to leapfrog the competition.
This year is already shaping up to be a tough one for investors to navigate, with heightened debate over central bank moves, prospects for economic slowdowns and crucial elections around the world all weighing on fund managers’ minds.
Warren Buffett regularly reminds his shareholders that interest rates are a gravitational pull to stock prices. History shows that the movement of stock prices and interest rates don’t necessarily happen simultaneously but play out over time.
The negative side of the strong increase in mortgage rates has fallen on those who did not have a home before the start of the increase in rates and on the ability of those Americans to purchase a home.
Institutional investors may want to consider an allocation to Quality equities as well as a sufficient allocation to government bonds.
With Americans living longer and deferring retirement for lots of reasons, the retirement planning landscape is changing. Employers are not offering pensions, and the age to maximize Social Security benefits is increasing. All these factors make planning for retirement income crucial. I explore this in depth with Matt DiGangi.
The latest warning for investors unleashing dovish monetary wagers across the board: Two thirds of Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse respondents said that betting on early monetary easing is the “most foolish” among popular trades heading into 2024.
Economic growth continues to defy expectations of a slowdown and recession due to continued increases in deficit spending.
The never-ending rise in technology megacaps is driving stock-picking pros to do something they don’t want to do: give up on beating the benchmark.
To properly assess whether a repeat of 1970s-era inflation is likely, we must first understand why inflation was rampant during that period.
In what was supposed to be the “year of fixed income,” 2023 proved to be an OK year, but not a generational one. As we shift gears into 2024, spreads are tight, rates are low, and the market is pricing in a whopping six interest rate cuts before year-end.
What’s in store for stocks after they climbed a wall of worry to exceed expectations in 2023? Fundamental Equities Global CIO Tony DeSpirito sees a rich hunting ground for stock pickers and offers four insights for 2024 ― from sector likes to international opportunities.
Inflation is not over. The next wave will be torturous and will last a long time.
As the profession steers away from the traditional transaction-based approach to a paradigm more focused on deep personal relationships and comprehensive planning and advice, keep in mind the following considerations to provide exponential value in 2024.
After two years of fighting inflation amid fears of recession, markets and policy makers appear unified in their sanguine outlook. While interest rate increases designed to slow economies may well be nearing an end, markets are never without risk.
The race for the White House intensified this week as Donald Trump won the Iowa caucus with 51% of the vote, handily beating rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Results from the online prediction market PredictIt now show that Trump has become the betting favorite to win November’s general election.
An emerging-market money manager who is outperforming 99% of his peers says equity investors can make money in 2024 whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or not, by focusing on countries undergoing economic transformations.
The surge in small-cap stock performance in the final weeks of 2023 may signal a long-awaited turnaround for smaller companies that have lagged large-cap peers for a decade, according to Head of Global Index Portfolio Management Dina Ting.
Rate cuts don’t happen in a vacuum—staying nimble with asset allocation can help investors adapt.
While elections can be newsworthy, we think that investors shouldn’t be too concerned about the impact on financial markets. Staying disciplined will help investors in the long run.
Stronger-than-expected growth, concerns about the U.S. government's fiscal outlook and the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) pledge to keep interest rates higher for longer drove yields to levels not seen in decades.
Corporate America has greeted 2024 with a run of job-cut announcements. The reductions, though modest, seem puzzling at a time when the stock market is flirting with all-time highs and real gross domestic product growth continues to be healthy.
Bond traders are growing convinced that US Treasury yields are on the brink of returning to the way they’ve traded for most of their existence — it’s the how, why and when of the normalization that keeps financial markets bouncing around.
The election outcome is unlikely to change the status quo for the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-China relations, or global markets which have seemed to price in geopolitical risk.
The Federal Reserve has fueled market conviction that the good old days of extremely low interest rates and abundant liquidity are soon to return. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai sees this reaction as an excess of dovish enthusiasm that sets the stage for more volatility.
In 2023, the Federal budget deficit exceeded private and foreign saving, resulting in only the eighth year since 1929 with negative net national saving (to be referred to as NNNS).
“The current fiscal path is unsustainable”. This stark warning comes from the US Treasury Department’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s fiscal year-end projections1. Based on current appropriations and tax law, these projections display steadily rising federal spending and flat tax receipts, as a percentage of GDP.
From March 2022 to July of this year, the Fed raised rates by 500 basis points. But the economy has done well this year, with GDP growth of 2.0%, 2.1% and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Does that mean the lagged impacts of the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening cycle will be fully felt in the year ahead? Is a second wave of inflation remains a major risk? The answers to those questions have implications for equities as the economic environment is likely to be volatile.
Bond traders abandoned wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March, pushing swap rates to levels consistent with only about 50% odds of a quarter-point reduction in the federal funds target during the first quarter.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
The market has taken a one-sided view on inflation and the Fed's reaction to it, even though other very plausible explanations exist. This illustrates both the power of narrative and the vulnerability of the current consensus.
Markets in 2023 kept investors on the edge of their seats. Groundbreaking technological advancements, mega-popstars being blamed for summertime inflation, and a December Fed pivot were just a few of the plot twists.
The leaders of the House and Senate have come up with a new budget deal, and many people aren’t happy. It still needs passing by January 19th, or else the government, evidently, may shutdown. We doubt that this will happen, but the fight over government spending seems to drag on year after year after year.
The likelihood of another severe bout of inflation from higher shipping costs alone is low.
I asked our authors and guest contributors the following question: Given the availability of spot bitcoin ETFs, would you recommend them (or any other cryptocurrency allocation) to your clients?
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the US central bank should take a cautious and systematic approach when it begins cutting interest rates, a process that can start this year absent a rebound in inflation.
After sidestepping last year’s scorching stock rally on concern about higher interest rates, Wall Street’s top forecasters can’t get bullish fast enough amid expectations for cuts by mid-year.
We have read plenty of analysis on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) should do as it decides when to start lowering interest rates this year. Much of the analysis is well-intentioned as well as based on very good arguments.
If there’s anything advisors have learned this year it’s to expect the unexpected, and that volatility isn’t likely to end anytime soon. As we look ahead to the rest of 2024, we’ll explore one strategy that may help advisors weather the storm – real assets. Real asset categories – such as natural resources, infrastructure and real estate – have historically served as an effective hedge against inflation, demonstrated resilience across economic cycles, and provided diversification to more traditional portfolios. As such, they can remain a popular option for navigating inflation and recessionary risk. My guest today, Christopher Huemmer, senior client portfolio manager at FlexShares Exchange Traded Funds, will offer insights into how to invest in real assets and ways to get exposure with ETFs.
Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.
Interest rates are one of the most important factors affecting the economy and the outlook for stocks. Managers increasingly think interest rates in the U.S. have likely peaked and are repositioning equity portfolios for the new environment.
The higher level of U.S. oil production is helping to keep global prices contained.
Municipals experienced their strongest two-month performance since 1986 during the final two months of 2023.
As 2024 kicks off, we’re sitting down with ClearBridge Investments’ Head of Economic and Market Strategy, Jeff Schulze.
Wall Street is doubling down on their bond bets for 2024. The notion that rate cuts are finally coming in 2024 spurs this movement. That said, here are a trio of exchange traded funds (ETFs) from Vanguard worth noting.
As equity investors hunt for opportunities, why should they consider climate-focused investing?
