The risk of an imminent recession is low, but next year is anyone's guess.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
Fuel prices keep consumers focused on inflation.
What are the consequences of taking Russia's international payments offline?
Consumer spending and borrowing have rebounded, and delinquencies have not.
The economics teams reflects on six themes that defined an extraordinary year.
High inflation and strong economic data may make the Fed hurry to conclude asset purchases.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.
What is in the new infrastructure bill, and what's next for Congress?
The outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond is positive, but the recovery remains uneven. The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
The Delta variant’s impact on supply chains and domestic spending slowed economic activity in the third quarter. Consumer confidence dipped noticeably, and businesses’ outlook dimmed somewhat. Rising inflation, the product of goods and labor shortages, has been a concern.
Are inflation forecasts reliable enough to shape policy?
The stage looks set for a taper without any tantrums.
The Delta variant and supply constraints are the biggest worries for the global outlook.
The U.S. Congress faces major financial deadlines in the month ahead.
Household savings and central bank policies have reduced the need for credit.
Governments are finding their place in supporting development.
Delta has the potential to alter the path of recovery; central banks are rising to face heavy challenges; and U.S. states have survived a major stress event.
From base effects to bottlenecks, wages to pricing power, inflation questions abound.
Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.
National corporate tax policies need global coordination; U.S. unemployment rates don't tell the full story.
Over the past month, the expectations of growth in the year ahead have surged, with fixed income markets repricing and investors shifting allocations in anticipation of growth.
Weighing the costs of global vaccine access, minimum wage and the energy rally.
A strong economic rebound is expected towards the middle of the year, followed by a return to more normal growth in 2022.
Are proposed fiscal policies and student debt forgiveness too much of a good thing?
Any surge in inflation will likely not last for long, but Italy's economic troubles and the shift in rental markets may endure.
Emerging markets seek a sustainable solution to debts, and the Fed takes a step toward sustainability.
Faster vaccination and bigger stimulus can pave the way to a better year, and agriculture subsidies upset trade relationships.
The Senate outcome opens the door to future cooperation, while Brexit sets the stage for future frictions.
A variety of data sources show we are closer to normal, but not fully recovered.
From global responses to local lockdowns, we all witnessed dramatic changes in 2020.
Promising developments surrounding vaccination give us hope that 2021 will be a better than year than the one that is about to end.
Brexit negotiations had another unproductive week. Parcel shipping volumes are breaking records. And when and why might the Fed alter its asset purchases?
While some indicators are slowing, we are optimistic for a better year ahead.
Yellen is a good candidate for a tough job, and we review the outlooks for U.S. holiday spending and trade in Asia.
Recovery from COVID-19 has been a mix of successes and setbacks.
Fair trade over free trade will remain the theme in Washington.
The Northern Trust Economics team reviews the outlook for developed markets facing COVID-19.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s continued recovery.
The 2020 election dims the outlook for major legislation and aid to local governments, while central banks face the risk of a liquidity trap.
Our election 2020 coverage concludes with a look at the nation’s physical and human capital.
Fostering immigration, encouraging family expansion, and stopping COVID-19 are tough problems with no easy solutions.
The environment is one of many sets of regulations under consideration.
With COVID-19 cases rising and policy support fading, the recovery faces many risks.
U.S. Healthcare Reform Proposals, Childcare Needed to Support Workers, Past U.S. Debt Recovery Won’t Repeat.
Our election 2020 coverage begins with fiscal policy, security risks that are slowing foreign investment, and legislative standstills.