A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on China.
Over the past two years, we have had to revise a lot of numbers upward: the Fed hiked rates more than we expected, inflation has been sticky and growth has far exceeded expectations.
Small businesses are a vital part of the American economy. The U.S. Small Business Administration estimates that they represent over 46% of employment and account for the majority of new job creation. Small business openings are an expression of optimism in an entrepreneur’s ability and support from their community.
This week saw the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Top researchers join public and private sector leaders to explore the issues facing the world. Every year features an outlook for key risks; this year, the risks felt less hypothetical than they might have in calmer times.
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2023.
The secular forces that held down rates for forty years have not entirely changed.
Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Financial flows have shifted this year. In the credit arena, bank lending has been moribund throughout the year, as standards tightened and interest rates rose. But borrowers still need capital, and private lenders are increasingly meeting their needs.
Households are better off today than before the pandemic.
Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions. Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide.
The longer the U.S. debt is left to grow, the harder it will be to correct.
The U.S. economy’s remarkable resilience is complicating the lives of investors and the Federal Reserve. Despite war-disrupted commodity markets and one of the most aggressive monetary tightening phases in modern history, economic activity has remained strong.
Higher long-term bond yields will allow the Fed to do less on short rates.
Older workers can still be a source of relief for tight labor markets.
Evidence of China's slowdown is appearing in unexpected places.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
The FOMC will make some close calls and tough decisions.
Higher yields on cash have allowed some de-risking.
Credit balances are not the only consumer indicator running high.
Volatile rates are adding to the cost of residential debt.
Better productivity is easing employers' burden of higher wages.
Young workers are struggling to find jobs, despite labor shortages.
Public and private projects are fueling a new building boom.
The common currency has not led to common outcomes.
How will we tell if the mythical soft landing is happening?
El Niño will test the resilience of both infrastructure and food supply chains.
An upturn in residential activity may be the next inflation challenge.
There is renewed anxiety among central bankers in the face of sticky inflation.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates, and inflation.
Sunsetting a core benchmark rate is no small feat.
In many respects, COVID-19 was not a temporary disruption.
The worst may be over for residential investment.
What follows a technical default? We hope we will not need to find out.
The 2011 U.S. reality television show Doomsday Preppers showed an uncommon side of life, spotlighting families that prepared to survive extreme, potentially fatal scenarios. Their plans included accumulating a surplus of food, fuel, and other essentials, all of which came at a cost.
The Fed is likely to lay the groundwork for a pause, and push back against an early pivot.
The disruption in office real estate is outlasting the term on its loans.
The dollar's strengths still outweigh its weaknesses.
Money market funds are attracting deposits for more reasons than just SVB.
The fallout from SVB will make the Fed's job more difficult.
History shows a high risk of recession when central banks fight inflation.
A drawdown to fight energy inflation has left the SPR at a new low.
