Search Results
Results 5,201–5,250
of 6,446 found.
The Surging U.S. Dollar - Good For Some, Bad For Others
The US dollar has been surging against most other currencies over the last year. The question is, is the rising US dollar good for the economy and the investment markets, or not? No doubt, the rising dollar has been buffeting the US equity and bond markets this year and is increasingly cited as the main culprit. That is what we will delve into today.
The Art of Pension Hopping
Clients who are unlikely to complete a traditional 30-year defined-benefit pension and are willing to pursue an un-orthodox strategy of switching work locations, continually re-purchasing prior service completed in another location will increase their work options, their retirement security and their overall pension income.
Do Liquid Alts Justify Their Costs?
Liquid alts are complex and expensive, so it is natural for advisors to ask if they worth the time and trouble. In this article, I answer this question. I evaluate returns with special emphasis on 2014, when managed futures (notably the AQR Managed Futures Strategy Fund - AQMIX) soared and the largest global macro fund, MainStay Marketfield (MFLDX), stumbled.
The Skill Set for Exceptional Performance
by Dan Richards,
Once you have built an initial client base, you face a very different set of challenges to take your practice to the next level. Overcoming that challenge boils down to identifying and cultivating the skill set needed for exceptional performance - and that's building and managing a high-performance team.
Welcome to the World of Taxes! A Philosophical Introduction for New Taxpayers
In his latest piece, Francois Sicart, Founder and Chairman of Tocqueville Asset Management, discusses his philosophy on taxes for the high net worth, especially from an international perspective.He notes "two waves" of investors who are new to tax planning.
Global Macro Framework
Global Carry, Yen and Dollar are irrefragable drivers of Global Macro. As we explain equities and bonds are just derivatives of these factors. We expose how the big picture asset dynamics worked since the GFC, brief on what happened over the last year and conclude with comments on dollar blowout over the past week.
Cutting Through the Currency Fog
With the euro sliding deeper against the dollar this week, equity investors have been getting nervous. But why is everyone so surprised when known currency fluctuations derail earnings? In our view, a sharper focus on company exposures can help create a “natural” currency hedge in global equity portfolios.
Good luck, Jonathan. Good luck, Nigeria.
This week we look at the upcoming Nigerian presidential election and how the persistent threat of the Boko Haram terrorist movement has complicated the democratic process. The election promises to be a close one between the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, and a former military leader, Muhammadu Buhari. In turn, we look back at the 2011 presidential election and analyze how that election facilitated the rapid spread of Boko Haram. Exacerbating matters further, the country suffers from a deepening divide between the Christian south and the Islamic north, which we discuss in detail in this report.
America's China Codependency
by Michael Edesess,
The massive Chinese investment in Treasury securities helps keep interest rates extremely low. This hugely increases the incentive for Americans to borrow. All that is needed is "collateral," and Americans will go out and borrow to their hearts' content and buy Chinese goods.
'Cheating' for Alpha with Beta
by Ryan J. Lehman,
In a recent white paper, our colleagues at GMO very appropriately asked, "Is Skill Dead?" In this paper they examined the results of the large-cap blend peer group, and offered an optimistic outlook for active managers despite recent underperformance. In this article, I expand upon their work and our own by discussing how managers "cheat" for alpha by taking positions in out-of-benchmark risk premia and beta exposures, and how those bets have compromised recent results.
The Hidden Peril in Sequence of Returns Risk
by Wade Pfau,
Should retirees place greater faith in stocks' ability to outperform bonds over reasonable holding periods or in insurance companies and bond issuers' ability to meet their contractual guarantees? Your position on this fundamental question will determine how you choose to build retirement income strategies for your clients.
Recession Probability Models - March 2015
by Ted Kavadas of StratX, LLC,
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.
Why Is the Fed’s James Bullard Optimistic about the U.S. Economy?
by Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree, Inc.,
On February 20, Professor Jeremy Siegel and I had the pleasure of speaking to St Louis Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) president James Bullard, who is a member of the Fed monetary policy committee. 2015 is shaping up to be an interesting year for monetary policy, with the Fed expected to hike interest rates.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.6, unchanged from the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.6, down from the previous week's -4.5 but off the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
Positioning U.S. Community Bank Investment Portfolios for 2015
When market uncertainty is elevated and bank profitability is an ongoing concern, taking an extreme view toward investing cash or harvesting liquidity is not optimal. Currently, we do not see as much value in interest rate or duration risk for bank portfolios as yields imply a moderate path for future policy rates. We believe there are opportunities for banks to earn income without taking excess interest rate risk or limiting flexibility against the need to fund future opportunities.
Tigers in Africa
This month's Absolute Return Letter is about unrealistic expectations which is something we are all guilty of from time to time. We look at why it is unrealistic to expect equity returns to be in the double digit range over the next several years, why central banks are not printing money like many believe, plus a few other topics.
Dan Fuss - The New Factor in the Bond Markets
by Robert Huebscher,
Dan Fuss' career in the bond market has spanned over 50 years. During that time, Fuss has spoken regularly at CFA luncheons. Last week in Boston, he began by warning that what he had to say would be markedly different from any of his previous talks.
On My Radar: Equity Valuations, Recessions and Market Declines
Today let’s take a look at the hard evidence signaling slowdown. My personal view is that slowdown would not be as much of a problem if valuation measures were low. They’re not: by just about every measure the market is overpriced, overbought and over believed. What can you do? I share a simple and disciplined rules based way for you to stay invested in the market’s primary trend.
The Herd Can Be Blind
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
Going into 2015 the economic outlook held by the U.S. investment establishment could not have been much more positive, and more unified. Pundits saw all the variables aligning to create the best of all investment worlds, a virtual "no-brainer" of optimism. Many believed that the 5.0% annualized growth in 3rd quarter would stay strong in the 4th Quarter and then usher in a strong 2015, which many believed would be the best economic year since the crash of 2008. The only question that divided most forecasters was how good the year would be.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Economic News Alter Fed Policy?
The exact timing of the first Fed rate increase does not matter. There is a difference between tight monetary policy and slightly less accommodative policy. Markets do quite well in the early stages of rising rates, especially when starting from a low initial point. This will be ignored by many who will invoke “Don’t fight the Fed.” This will be the fundamental battleground between traders and investors, bears and bulls, and various political types – perhaps lasting for years. The end of the business or stock market cycle is not imminent. Bull markets do not die of old age.
Hasenstab on Global Growth: Headwinds or Tailwinds?
While some forecasters predict gloomy global growth this year, the contrarian-minded Dr. Michael Hasenstab, chief investment officer, Templeton Global Macro Group (formerly known as Templeton Global Bond Group), has a different view. He aims to counter what he sees as “excessive pessimism” surrounding the global economy and outlines why he believes the recent plunge in oil prices could prove a tailwind, not only for economic growth in the United States, but also in Europe. He also offers his scorecard regarding Japan’s monetary policy experiment dubbed “Abenomics.”
Are Expectations Too High?
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
The market’s continued ascent has caused some to ask if the stock market reflects excessive optimism. The pace of economic surprises as measured by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index suggests expectations remain reasonable. We view recent economic disappointments as largely temporary, and would expect the surprise index may reverse recent declines as expectations have come down, providing support for cyclical sectors.
China’s New Generation of Entrepreneurs II
by Beini Zhou of Matthews Asia,
China has long been perceived to be a breeding ground for business copycats, and has struggled with rampant intellectual piracy. Many businesses there have indeed been founded based on business models that originated in the U.S. or Europe. But what’s been overlooked in recent years is China’s rising “innovation machine.” More favorable government policies toward R&D have helped. This month, Asia Insight takes a look at developments in China’s grassroots-level entrepreneurship.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.6, up slightly from 130.4 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.5, down from the previous week's -4.2 but off the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines
When I initiated the dshort web page in late 2005, one of my routine topics was equity valuations, initially inspired by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance, the second edition of which was published earlier that year. I gradually expanded my focus from his cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) to include Ed Easterling's Crestmont P/E, Nobel laureate James Tobin's Q Ratio and my own monthly regression analysis of the S&P 500.
Complexity, Critical States and Tributaries of Uncertainty
For long periods of time, the markets can advance relatively smoothly until a sudden onset of chaos occurs, a “tipping point” that quickly changes the picture. Some might say the recent drop in oil would be a case in point. Brooks Ritchey, senior managing director at K2 Advisors, Franklin Templeton Solutions, explores the tipping points that trigger dramatic market turns, and ponders whether he thinks global equities may be teetering on the edge of one today.
At a Standstill? - The Debate Over "Secular Stagnation"
by Team of Northern Trust,
During one particularly stormy day recently, I asked my daughter to unearth herself from the couch and help me clear the snow from the driveway. Unfortunately, the prospective reward of industry was no competition for the television remote, and I was left to fend for myself.
Markets Vs Economy - The Great Disconnect
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Last week, the markets hit new "all-time" highs as Greece caved into the demands of the Eurozone, at least for now, in order to secure funding for another four months. The relief that the latest Eurozone crisis has been resolved sent money flowing into equity markets as investors remain "afraid to miss out" on rising asset prices. The general consensus of analysts and economists is that the rise in capital markets is clearly a sign of economic strength which makes equities the "only game in town" as long as Central Banks stand at the fore.
The Big Threat to Your Reputation
by Dan Richards,
Yelp and other "advisor-ratings" sites give a new platform to former clients who bear grudges. Fortunately, you don't have to be a powerless victim. There are some simple, proactive measures that can help you protect your reputation against unfair reviews.
An In-Depth Look at the Sequoia Fund
by Larry Swedroe,
Looking at its 35-year track record, some now consider the Sequoia Fund (SEQUX) an anomaly; it is an actively managed fund that has persistently generated positive risk-adjusted returns, outperforming its peers and its benchmark. Should investors expect this outperformance to persist?
Détente with Iran: An Update
This report is an update to a similarly titled piece we published in 2013. In this report, we delve further into what appears to be an evolving policy change by the U.S. with Iran, discussing the basic goals of the U.S. and Iran. With this background, we examine America’s alternatives to achieving our aims in the region, followed by a full examination of U.S. difficulties in making a historic policy change with Iran. We discuss the recent policy pattern in the region and how it supports the notion that improving relations with Iran is probably the reason for this pattern.
High Yield in a Rising Rate Environment: Duration and Yield
by Heather Rupp of AdvisorShares,
We began February with a yield on the 10-year Treasury of 1.68% and today sit at 2.14%.1All the concerns and talk of maybe even no rate rise this year that we saw in January, have turned to frequent mention of a rate rise beginning in June. So what are bond investors to do? Is this finally the year of rising rates and what impact does that have?
Brighter Days Ahead for the Global Economy?
by Team of Thomas White International,
After seven years of uneven growth trends following the 2008 financial crisis, we believe the global economy is likely to see a moderate acceleration in 2015. While several risks remain, we are reasonably confident that there are now enough growth drivers in place to help most major economies advance.
Global Carry Game Over?
The world has changed on the 2nd of February after US Personal Income and Outlays report
or maybe more importantly ISM Manufacturing Index report got released. The Global Carry
trade and Dollar trade got broken and have been broken since. Is it a passing correction
or the time is up and the game is over?
On My Radar: Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction
This week let’s take a look at debt around the globe. I share a great piece from McKinsey & Company that shows just how much more debt, county by country, has been piled on since the 2007 debt induced financial crisis. Evidence is apparent in the commodity market and I also share a few ideas how you may risk manage those allocations.
QE and Currency Wars: A Theory With No Evidence
Some analysts think that central bank policy (specifically, quantitative easing) is the only thing that matters. They overlook innovation, investment, and just plain old hard work and argue that stock prices, interest rates and economic performance are driven by central bank stimulus. These analysts say the world has returned to a Depression-era game of competitive devaluation (some call it “currency wars”).
Gary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds
by Robert Huebscher,
If you followed Gary Shilling's advice for the last 30 years, you would be very wealthy. Since 1981, Shilling has consistently advocated owning long-dated Treasury securities. In a talk last week, he reiterated that advice as one piece of his three-part asset-allocation strategy for the coming year.
The Devastation Awaiting Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities
by Keith Jurow,
Real estate investment euphoria is widespread. An asset class for which Wall Street has provided little useful information - residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) - is especially vulnerable if this euphoria is misplaced.
Mamas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Pension Fund Managers
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
We do not have to look to Greece to find massively underfunded obligations. Here in the US we can find hundreds of examples, willingly created by politicians and businessmen who proclaim they are working for the public good. We call them pension funds, but they’re just another form of unfunded debt. A sovereign bond is a promise to pay a certain amount of money over time.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.0, down from 130.8 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.3, down slightly from the previous week's -4.0, but up from the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
DC Managed Accounts: Shining a Spotlight on Investment Advice
?Nearly one in three defined contribution (DC) plans offers managed account and automated advice services that attempt to enhance investment outcomes with personalized advice. As the Government Accountability Office has reported, however, plan sponsors often have had limited or insufficient information to evaluate and monitor automated advice engines, despite having fiduciary responsibility over advice provided to participants.
Three Surveys Show US Consumers Feeling Friskier
US consumers are feeling friskier according to recent data. Consumers appear to have, at long last, shaken off the “blues” they suffered on account of the severe recession of 2007-2009 and the subsequent slow recovery. I don’t think we can attribute the improved consumer outlook to any one factor, but rather from a combination of factors: over a year of solid payroll growth, improving wage gains, a plunge in gasoline prices, rising stock and house prices, and low interest rates.
Is Skill Dead?
by Neil Constable, Matt Kadnar of GMO,
As investment boards and committees gather to discuss performance for 2014, eyebrows will most certainly be raised as people review the performance of many of their equity managers. Depending on which database they are looking at, between 80% and 90% of active U.S. equity managers will have underperformed their benchmark this year, making it one of the worst years for active management in the recent past.
Results 5,201–5,250
of 6,446 found.
