Wealth taxes are politically resonant but difficult to enact. Oil prices are steady despite disruptions, while the EU’s food exports face tariffs.
Although economic signals are mixed, bottom-up sector fundamentals help inform decisions on sector ratings.
With global growth slowing and significant uncertainty around trade and politics, PIMCO’s Income Fund is taking the long-term view and positioning defensively.
It’s been a largely solid run for U.S. stocks in 2019. With the year now in its final quarter, Tony DeSpirito addresses three questions on investors’ minds.
Read Harold Evensky's latest Newsletter.
How do I get my financial advisors to understand they don’t know everything about their clients?
Are you just starting off or have you been at it for years? Here are seven essentials business skills for every advisor.
We took a close look at the "Big-3" recession precursors and concluded it's too soon to bet on a U.S. recession.
The news media, bank executives, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) chairman and even presidential candidates have made remarks about the recent spike in short-term funding rates. What caused the spike and why is it important?
In October the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2019 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.2% in July. This represents a marked slowing from global growth of 3.8% in 2017. The primary driver of the slowdown has been a retrenchment in global trade and business investment in response to the ratcheting up of trade tariffs since early 2018.
As the world watches the US-China trade spat roll on, it is important to look beyond the headlines and examine the economic reality and progress within emerging markets, according to Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Andrew Ness. He explains why investors should pay attention to the economic evolution taking place in emerging-market economies.
Last week’s key releases of job growth and ISM manufacturing data highlight the ongoing bifurcation in the economy; with the consumer bucking manufacturing’s malaise.
The economic calendar is a light one in sharp contrast to last week’s. That was a good time to observe the market reaction to a wide range of news. Now is the time for investors to use the information.
This week’s Fed meeting started a pause in overnight rate cuts. But what will happen if yields on the long end move up?
Investors may assume they have adequate exposure to gold because they’re invested in a commodities fund. But many of these funds have a relatively small weighting in gold, and so their gold exposure is much smaller than they realized.
ARIS describes key themes in the current global economic and market environment
The evidence is overwhelming that automation has positively impacted total factor productivity (TFP) for years, i.e. GDP growth continues to benefit from the digital revolution despite the fact GDP growth is rather pedestrian these years.
Investors are increasingly asking whether the macroeconomic growth cycle still exists, and, if so, where are we in it? The answers to these important questions have real implications for the way equity investors should think about their portfolios.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut interest rates again—its third such move in as many meetings—lowering its benchmark rate to a target range of 1.50% to 1.75%.
DOW 650,000 - Just recently CNBC ran an article touting Ron Baron's call for the Dow to reach that astronomical level in just 50-years. Problem is that the INDU should ALREADY be at 650,000 - why isn't it?
Approximatley 40% of financial advisors plan to retire within the next 10 years, according to Cerulli and Associates. The CFP Board says that there are more certified financial planners over 70 than under 30. Replacing those professionals will be a challenge for the industry. The advisor profession faces a talent and hiring crisis. My guest today is Kate Healy, who is charged with solving that crisis by opening the RIA career path to fresh faces – including new graduates, career changes, military veterans, and other groups that aren’t traditionally represented in the financial advice field.
Not everyone in your local area will be a good fit for your business. You need to strategically think about who you serve best before you go knocking on every door in town.
Three drivers increase a firm’s value but another three will destroy it.
In investing, tribalism is outright dangerous to your wealth. When you allow tribalism to impact your thinking, you lose the ability to think independently.
Listen... do you hear that? A bubble is popping. No, we aren’t talking about the stock market... well, at least not the stock market you’re probably thinking about. Generally, public companies have the economics to back up their lofty valuations, even if those valuations are, well, lofty. It is the market for private companies, specifically those backed by venture capital (VC), that looks truly bubblelicious.
Neither my company nor I are long or short Tesla shares. Why don’t we own it?
Does a prosperous global society need access to energy supplies that grow faster than the population? Conventional wisdom says yes, but a new book tackles this question and reaches the surprising and optimistic conclusion that we can live better while consuming less energy and fewer material resources.
It was a thin week for economic data. Both new and existing home sales were reported lower in September, although the trends are generally higher. Durable goods orders fell 1.1% in September, reflecting the strike at GM and ongoing problems at Boeing. Ex-transportation, orders slipped 0.3%, with mixed results across industries.
While volatility has receded lately and geopolitical tensions haven’t heated up, little-to-no progress has been made on a comprehensive U.S.-China trade agreement; while the timetables for Brexit continue to shift. Although U.S. stocks are trading near their all-time highs, investor hesitation has persisted due to mixed economic data, the questionable effects of monetary policy and trade uncertainty. We continue to recommend that investors use volatility to rebalance and stay near their strategic asset allocations; maintaining our neutral stance on U.S. equities (with a bias toward large caps at the expense of small caps), and our neutral stance on both developed international and emerging market equities.
But surely, we can work a trade deal? One that protects intellectual property and opens up the Chinese market to American companies? That seems to be the narrative that markets are looking for. But it may not be the narrative we get…
The 115th World Series began this week, the culmination of a 162-game regular season. While this season is long relative to other sports, the Investment Strategy season never ends. We are constantly evaluating economic and market data and ensuring that our forecasts, strategies, and outlooks are prepared for ‘primetime.’
• Volatility has been the story of 2019. The markets have dealt with uncertainty around global trade restrictions, recession fears and the possibility of impeachment of President Donald Trump.
• We project these headwinds will cause global economic growth to remain relatively weak for the remainder of the year.
• We believe the likelihood of a near-term recession is unlikely and tentative signs of economic stabilization could develop in the next few months.
Although the relative performance of the Wasatch investment strategies was mixed during the third quarter — some strategies were a bit ahead of their benchmarks and some were a bit behind— the 2019 year-to-date and longer-term results (i.e., five years) have been exceptional across most of our strategies.
If you’re committed to helping your clients achieve their financial outcomes, don’t avoid discussing taxes.
As we saw in the Summary of Economic Projections released in September, the Fed’s economic outlook is similar to most outside economists. The baseline scenario is for moderate growth in 2020, with growth in real GDP near 2%, and inflation moving gradually toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
With global economic growth experiencing a slowdown this year, some investors may be concerned about valuations for the innovative companies that have been popular during the past decade.
The First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX) reflects the teachings of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. In this interview, the three managers of the fund discuss a number of topics, including why they hold a large position in gold, why the market will favor value investors on a long-term basis and their views of ESG investing in the context of the companies they own.
Reflecting on his more than six decades as an asset manager, Dan Fuss says that climate change is now the greatest challenge facing society and the markets.
I remain bullish going forward despite signs that the world could be facing its worst economic slowdown since the financial crisis. The reason for my bullishness is simple: Bad news is good news.
Negative interest rates are nothing short of a mystery; they’re likely to throw off whatever we knew about the financial world and how things worked in the past. With more than $17 trillion of global debt trading at nominal yields below zero — and about double when considering inflation — this phenomenon has prompted differing perspectives about its purpose and consequences. Howard Marks offers his in this memo, in which he discusses why negative rates have become prevalent, what implications they might have, whether they will reach the U.S., and what investors can do as they navigate these uncharted waters.
The primary purpose of this article on the importance of forecasting the future results of a business is offered to illustrate the conceptual validity of forecasting earnings (and every other metric) as the key to long-term investor success.
Quitting tobacco is good for your health. But how is it for your portfolio?
Early last week, the Chairman announced a new, as yet unnamed, Fed program through which the bank will now buy regular amounts of short-term U.S. government debt. Seeking to counter the rumblings that a new form of quantitative easing would be seen as an admission that the economy may be in trouble...
As a financial advisor turned digital-marketing consultant, I know how hard it is to get leads and new clients. That is why you’ll be surprised at this simple way to quickly generate more leads.
On September 24, the specter of impeachment became a reality, as the House began its official inquiry. The case for impeachment may involve whether the president breached his fiduciary duties, so it is appropriate to reflect on the relationship to the advisory profession.
As the world transitions to a future with greater power demand, investors have the ability to capitalize on this future energy story. At Tortoise, we believe The Teal Energy Deal is the fastest, least expensive and most realistic way to reduce global carbon emissions.
Several rumblings in the quarter raised concerns about an imminent market crash. Another distinctive possibility is that the bubble of "airy promises" and overly optimistic growth expectations is bursting.
Brian Smedley is head of macroeconomic and investment research at Guggenheim Partners. In this interview, he explains why his team is forecasting a recession in mid-2020 and how advisors should position portfolios in response.
The United Nations-supported PRI has made strides in changing the global attitude to responsible investing.
Psychology is the reason most investors fail to keep up with the markets, and why contrarian strategies have turned in consistently superior performance over time. This same inability to understand psychology is often why academics don’t incorporate its use and instead stay with what may be flawed modern portfolio theory.
