Last week delivered welcome news on inflation in the United States. The November report showed headline inflation slowing to 2.7% year-over-year and core inflation easing to 2.6%—both below consensus expectations of 3.1% and 3%, respectively.
As your balance sheet grows, the questions you ask about money tend to change. You move from wondering how to build assets to asking how long they will last, who will manage them after you, and how to keep family relationships steady along the way.
Driven by a more predictable regulatory backdrop and a surge in large-scale deal flow, 2025 has delivered the strongest merger arbitrage returns since the post-pandemic boom. This resurgence, characterized by narrowing spreads and a notable lack of failed deals, has set a robust foundation for continued activity into 2026.
The market’s big “aha” moment last week was a CPI print that came in meaningfully cooler than expected, followed immediately by the usual chorus that it must be “distorted.”
In this year-end reflection, we eschew the typical theater of market predictions to instead examine the "knew-it-all-along" effect and the cognitive illusions that make past volatility seem orderly.
This reflection reexamines the traditional Nativity narrative, suggesting that the "no room at the inn" dilemma was a result of government-mandated census pressures rather than the greed of a private innkeeper.
Reflections on the unexpected outcomes of an unpredictable year.
While assets under management have grown modestly, the fund’s impressive Sharpe and Information ratios—outperforming the vast majority of its peers—validate the efficacy of its strategic partnership with Apollo.
Over the last couple of years, inflation alarmists such as Paul Tudor Jones, James Grant, and Jeff Gundlach have all said that inflation is returning with force. In different ways, they each stated that they would not own Treasury bonds due to the expectation that inflation would rise as the dollar declined due to the ongoing deficits.
AI’s third wave could represent a broadening opportunity set of companies for investors to capitalize with. Businesses that adopt AI into their operations could ramp up productivity and expand their valuations at a rapid pace.
While only two official dissenters opposed the December rate cut, dot-plot projections reveal that six Fed members, including four “silent dissenters,” were against easing, signaling deeper division within the Fed than headlines suggest.
This article explores the tension between individual economic outlooks and the institutional desire for collective stability in a highly scrutinized environment.
Shifting geopolitics are causing policymakers in Europe and Japan to step up fiscal spending to gain self-sufficiency and generate growth.
A Retirement Ready Dividend Portfolio for Young Investors In Part B of this series, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and “Mr. Valuation,” continues building a dividend growth portfolio designed for younger investors who still have decades before retirement.
Energy can be either an enabler or a constraint. The latter happens when our creativity gets out of sync with the energy we can apply to it. This is happening right now and will get worse as artificial intelligence data centers demand more power than we have available.
Macro Signposts highlights takeaways from the data analysis conducted by our team of economists and other experts.
As enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and its potential to reshape business models and deliver extraordinary profits accelerates, we worry that rational, disciplined investing is taking a back seat. Many investors appear to be abandoning fundamental analysis and prudent valuation in favor of paying any price to own the hottest stocks.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year asset class forecast as of November 30, 2025.
The global race to build AI infrastructure has accelerated sharply. Estimated capital expenditures now total more than $5 trillion, equivalent to the annual GDP of Germany.
Mark Twain said, “History never repeats itself, but it rhymes!” Time magazine just came out with its “Person of the Year.”
Price inflation has slowed, but that doesn’t mean prices are coming down. They just aren’t rising quite as fast as they were.
The era of "easy" yield in money market funds is ending as the Federal Reserve begins its long-awaited series of rate cuts. To stay ahead of shifting borrowing costs, investors are increasingly looking toward the flexibility and proprietary research of actively managed fixed income ETFs.
In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts explore the need for renewed vigilance in the direct lending market, discuss the future of private credit in Europe, identify the evolution of the high yield bond market, and reflect on the backdrop for emerging markets equities.
Franklin Equity Group’s Grant Bowers suggests the US economy may be approaching a Goldilocks equilibrium in 2026, supported by stable growth, anchored inflation and policy tailwinds.
Understand how a recession is defined and how to avoid common investment mistakes during recession-driven stock market downturns.
Investors navigating the 2026 landscape must balance a fragmented "K-shaped" consumer market against the tailwinds of falling interest rates and the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA). Despite a cautious Federal Reserve and potential government shutdowns, the prevailing view is that structural transformation and fiscal support will foster economic resilience.
In the world of exchange-traded funds, some investors tend to look at index-based ETFs as static alternatives to the more flexible active funds. However, that is not necessarily the case. Index-based funds do move their assets around, particularly when their underlying indexes rebalance at points throughout the year.
This year’s research highlights a clear investor preference for high-conviction themes like crypto, global defense, and commodities, which dominated both inflows and market discourse.
In statistical terms, the coming year will offer a multi-modal distribution of possibilities: a plausible path of robust, AI-led growth sits in the middle, flanked by a productivity miracle on one side and a risk-laden, bond-market-led downside on the other. Investors and policymakers must prepare for all of these outcomes.
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
Many beneficiaries who inherited retirement accounts after 2019 must begin taking required minimum distributions in 2025 under the SECURE Act's 10-year rule. Our Bill Cass notes that heirs should plan distribution strategies based on their individual tax situations.
As widely expected, a divided Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, marking the third consecutive meeting with a rate reduction. One voting member dissented in favor of a larger half-point cut, while two members voted to leave rates unchanged. T
LPL Research examines why the bull market appears ready to continue its run in 2026, powered by AI enthusiasm and further easing of monetary policy from the Fed.
Market value is often discussed, frequently quoted, and commonly misunderstood. In this article, I will explain what market value truly represents, how it is calculated, and why understanding it is so important for long-term investment success.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
LPL Financial explores trending retirement policy shifts topics, including Trump Accounts and private equity’s expanding role in 401(k)s.
Coming into 2025, amid a debate about concentration and lofty valuations in the largest of large-cap stocks, as well as concerns about macro uncertainty and economic conditions, we collectively called for diversification. That diversification, among other things, singled out the opportunity in small-caps.
Elevated yields, steeper yield curves, and ongoing volatility make core bonds a compelling choice for total return, income, diversification, and downside risk mitigation in today’s markets. Active management is key: Historically, it has helped core bond portfolios outperform passive strategies through a rigorous, diversified approach.
Investors should treat bitcoin as the volatile, high-risk asset it is. A look at the data, along with comparisons to the Magnificent 7 stocks, indicates a small (1% to 2%) portfolio allocation for most investors would be the safest.
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its final meeting of 2025, delivering – as expected – its third consecutive rate cut. Policymakers lowered the fed funds rate to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling continued support for the economy.
During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and “Mr. Valuation”, continues his series on portfolio construction by shifting the focus from retirees to younger, pre-retirement investors building wealth for the future-how young investors can build a future retirement with dividend growth.
Innovation is no longer confined to tech—it’s transforming every sector of the economy, from transportation and health care to energy and retail. Learn more from Franklin Equity Group’s Matt Moberg.
We’ll call it a steady year for the box office in 2025. A handful of big-time flicks are on deck for the holidays, while studios hope for an improved macro backdrop to drive bigger numbers next year.
We’re finally breaking out of the clouds! Economists have mostly been flying blind because of the government shutdown, but this week the data really start to flow again. In particular, we get a partial report on the employment situation in October and a full report for November, retail sales in October, and consumer prices in November.
Preparing for the new year? It helps to look back on the big stories in fund management that can inform plans for 2026.
Cannabis stocks soared on Friday following news that U.S. president Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as soon as Monday that would ultimately ease federal restrictions on marijuana.
Looking to add exposure to the Nasdaq? The key market index, with its heavy focus on the information technology sector, can help investors lean more into some key growth-oriented firms in the U.S. and global economy.
Last Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut at its final meeting of the year. In the press conference that followed, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that monetary policy is now much closer to neutral and that the central bank is likely nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle.
Dividends offer a powerful dual benefit: they provide an immediate, consistent stream of passive income, while also being an incredible tool for long-term wealth building through the magic of compounding when reinvested. The yield is the essential metric that measures this horsepower, allowing investors to effectively compare and manage their income-generating investments.
