We have seen a powerful recovery in asset prices in the wake of the global financial crisis (GFC). We cannot forget, however, that more than $15 trillion in asset values evaporated in 2008–2009, wiping out gains earned in the bull markets of the 1990s and early 2000s.

There’s an ongoing narrative about the energy industry that says exploration and production (E&P) companies are making money in unconventional shale plays, even with oil selling for only $50 a barrel. This is touted as a positive trend. But a deeper dive into energy company fundamentals suggests a vastly different story — one that prioritizes production volume over economic value.

I’m writing to you from Chicago where I am attending the Morningstar ETF Conference. Vanguard’s global chief economist, Joe Davis, kicked off the event Wednesday evening advising investors to expect lower returns and rocky markets for the next two to three years.

More ways to create lifelong income, more advance planning and more financial education may help improve your retirement future, industry pros say.

This letter will be the first of a series in which I outline my vision for the next 5–10–15–20 years of global economics. I understand that there is a substantial amount of hubris involved in such an undertaking, so I will approach the topic gingerly.

China put a halt to new ICOs and crypto transactions. In response, ethereum tumbled as much as 15.8 percent on Monday, or $55 a unit. Bitcoin lost $394 a unit.

The potential failure to raise the debt ceiling has never been the problem. It's the debt that's the problem, and the ceiling is a tool to solve the problem that vote-seeking politicians are afraid to actually use.

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $18,831 for an annualized real return of 12.73%.

We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for August. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 156K.

Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last week's Employment Report.

This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.

For most of this year, I’ve had a sense that the American middle class is increasingly growing, and that wages/incomes are increasing more than the Labor Department reports. I have been saving articles upon articles on this subject and was planning to extract the highlights and summarize them for you in the next week or two in these pages.

Let's take a close look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government's Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of households. The focus is on total hours worked regardless of whether the hours are from a single or multiple jobs.

Closed-end funds and emerging-market debt offer opportunities for income investors. We also look at Vanguard’s most recent announcement about its bond ETF and what to expect from the FOMC this month.

Working with a trusted advisor may help you create a sustainable income plan for a successful retirement experience, industry pros say.

With the release of yesterday's report on July Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.12% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 1.98% nominal and 0.57% real. The trend since 2013 has been one of steady growth.

What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk? At present, the ratio for Continued Claims has been trending down. Excluding the 1981 recession, the Initial Claims trough lead time for a recession has ranged from 7 to 22 months with an average of 12 months if we include the 1981 recession and 14 months if we exclude it. Admittedly, the last recession is an extreme example, but the Initial Claims trough preceded its December 2007 onset by a whopping 22 months.

This commentary has been updated to include today's release of Nonfarm Employment. August's 156K increase in total nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a combined 41K downward revision for June and July. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The Investing.com consensus was for 180K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.

Although inflation may seem a distant threat, even modest inflation can prove devastating to retirees who depend on income that does not adjust with inflation.

This morning's employment report for August showed a 156K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The Investing.com consensus was for 180K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%. June and July nonfarm payrolls were revised for a total loss of 41K.

Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in July rose 0.44% and is up 2.7% year-over-year. However, when we adjust for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM rose to 0.35%. The real number is up 1.3% year-over-year. Revisions were made going back to January.

Who will be the next governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)? This is an important question to be answered in the next several months, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s current term will expire in April of next year.

Fortunate is the financial advisor bullish on US stocks in recent years. But more fortunate will be those who prepare clients for the inevitable market downturn. This is one of most important things an advisor can do says Glenn Dial, Head of Retirement Strategy in the US with Allianz Global Investors.

Going from nest-egg saving to nest-egg spending may present a difficult challenge for many entering retirement, according to industry professionals.

Richard Thaler, PhD, is considered one of the founding fathers of behavioral economics, the nexus of economics and psychology—specifically how people and organizations make decisions that may have negative consequences and how they frequently repeat these mistakes. 

Discussing how to donate non-cash assets with clients provides an opportunity for advisors to help increase the impact of a client’s charitable giving and maximize their tax benefits at the same time.

That is a pretty bold statement to make considering that every one of her predecessors failed to predict the negative consequences of their actions. Will there will be another “Financial Crisis” in our lifetimes? Yes, it is virtually guaranteed.

Before you jump to the wrong conclusion, let me define my “problem.” I’m not very effective when I coach male advisors how to deal with women, whether meeting with female prospects or couples. I don’t have this issue with female advisors, who generally are more empathetic and sensitive to these issues than men.

How do I get through to clients who spend too much money?

What is it worth to have a financial services coordinator who understands your clients’ needs and the language spoken by the specialized service providers they use? Today’s robo-advisors cannot provide the depth or breadth of coordination clients need. But you can, at least for your best clients. This should be a core of your value proposition.