Bob Browne is an executive vice president and chief investment officer for Northern Trust. He is a member of Northern Trust's operating group and management group. He is also co-portfolio manager of the Northern Global Tactical Asset Allocation Fund (BBALX), a top-performing, multi-asset fund.

An investor’s allocation to stocks and bonds is often the most consequential investment decision he or she will make. But the practice of translating investment risk into a stock to bond ratio is fraught with misunderstanding.

The economic calendar is loaded and there is plenty of non-economic news as well. The punditry will focus on the Trump-Kim summit at the start of the week and then turn to inflation data and the Fed. Who knows what the first might bring, but the market is unlikely to be surprised by the Fed.

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,729 for an annualized real return of 10.99%.

At Franklin Templeton’s recent Global Investor Forum in New York, our CEO Greg Johnson participated in a panel discussion with three other CEOs in the financial services industry: James Gorman of Morgan Stanley; Jay Hooley of State Street and Barry Stowe of Jackson National Life.

To say activity in Washington is being closely followed would be an understatement, with the consensus view that the Department of Labor’s Fiduciary Rule is all but officially vacated, and a recent proposal from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is in the middle of a 90-day comment period.

Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last week's Employment Report.

This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.

A segment of the credit market many investors may overlook, preferred securities are one of PIMCO’s highest-conviction credit views today.

The hallmark of an economic Ponzi scheme is that the operation of the economy relies on the constant creation of low-grade debt in order to finance consumption and income shortfalls among some members of the economy, using the massive surpluses earned by other members of the economy. The factors most responsible for today’s lopsided prosperity are exactly the seeds from which the next crisis will spring.

In over thirty years of watching the economy we've seen recessions, recoveries (both slow and fast), panics, lulls, and boomlets. But we've rarely seen a job market this strong.

Let's take a close look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government's Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of households. The focus is on total hours worked regardless of whether the hours are from a single or multiple jobs.

With the release of last week's report on April Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.36% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.13% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.20% nominal and 1.21% real.

Among the populist ideas that have gained currency are hostility to free trade, a sharp reduction in immigration, the redistribution of income, and nationalism bordering on jingoism. Dambisa Moyo doesn’t like it, and neither does Ian Bremmer.

Kudzu invaded the South, obliterating the healthy and attractive vegetation carefully planted by homeowners. Variable annuity owners are likewise being strangled by excessive fees.

There are three key drivers of financial markets - behavioural patterns, cyclical trends and structural trends. Because human attention spans are getting shorter and shorter, behavioural patterns affect financial markets more and more. That is a problem but also an opportunity set for the astute investor who is prepared to think outside-the-box.

Prices will rise—for producers and consumers alike—which is good for gold but a headwind for continued economic growth.

There has been heightened discussion recently about women’s inequality in many areas of society—including financial security. Gail Buckner, CFP, our personal retirement and financial planning strategist, explores the gender pay gap and how it has contributed to a poorer post-working life for many older women.

This week, market watchers around the world are justifiably fixated with the high-stakes, high-drama political developments unfolding in Italy. While a political crisis in the world's 9th largest economy (International Monetary Fund figures, 4/17/18) would normally not be enough to cause an international meltdown, given how thin the global economic ice has become as a result of ever-increasing debt loads, even small disruptions can create systemic problems.

This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. May's 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by upward revisions of 15K. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The Investing.com consensus was for 189K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.0%.

What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk? At present, the ratio for Continued Claims has been trending down. Excluding the 1981 recession, the Initial Claims trough lead time for a recession has ranged from 7 to 22 months with an average of 12 months if we include the 1981 recession and 14 months if we exclude it. Admittedly, the last recession is an extreme example, but the Initial Claims trough preceded its December 2007 onset by a whopping 22 months.

This morning's employment report for May showed a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was much better than forecasts. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The Investing.com consensus was for 189K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.0%.

Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in April rose 0.30% and is up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was at 0.08%. The real number is up 1.9% year-over-year. Revisions were made to figures for October through March.

Advisors should use a few elements from Silicon Valley’s office design to improve success when prospects visit.

The government reported earlier this month that the US birthrate fell to the lowest level since 1987 last year, despite an increase in the number of child-bearing age women in the population since then. The government also reported that the “fertility rate” – the number of births per 1,000 women – fell to the lowest level in almost a century in 2017.

The one universal experience in life is encountering difficult people. It would be nice to eliminate them, but another one always takes their place.

This shouldn’t surprise anyone, but public trust in the federal government is eroding. Sixty years ago, 75 percent of Americans expressed faith in the government to do the right thing “most of the time” or “just about always.” Seventy-five percent! You can’t get 75 percent of people to agree on anything now, as the recent “Laurel or Yanny” video proved.

The cost of a college education continues to rise, and along with it, student debt. Roger Michaud, senior vice president and director of college savings for the Franklin Templeton 529 College Savings Plan, and Mike O’Brien, director, Program Marketing, Global Client Marketing, look at how mounting student debt could have a long-term impact on one’s future.

John Williams, one of the newest members of the Federal Open Market Committee, wrote an article titled “The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?” where he summarized his views on real neutral interest rates.

How should you approach a casual acquaintance and open the dialogue about working together?