Read Harold Envensky's most recent Newsletter
This is the fifth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields in addition to the initial 40 that I presented...
This morning's seasonally adjusted 209K new claims, down 24K from the previous week's revised figure, was better the Investing.com forecast of 230K. From the release: "The claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal."
Today we’re going to look at how Washington spends our tax dollars. Specifically, we’ll look at a new report which shows how the federal government spends the income tax paid by the average family – and how they spend even more than what’s collected to create massive budget deficits year after year after year.
With sky-high valuations in the US stock market, and what we believe is a tech bubble that has dangerous implications for other areas of the market, we suggest four actions investors can take now to avoid the inevitable bursting of the bubble, and which will likely benefit their portfolios’ long-term performance potential.
The increasing costs of health insurance borne by employees and employers alike has spawned a variety of plans and strategies to help manage the expenses. Among these are health savings accounts (HSAs), which first came onto the scene in 2003.
Professional athletes are among the most coveted clients for advisors – and present unique financial challenges that those athletes are typically ill-equipped to handle themselves. Paul Franklin leveraged his role as a high-school football coach to pursue a career serving those clients.
The cost of unfunded obligations like Social Security and Medicare will begin to crowd out all other budget items until the government is forced to either double taxes, reduce spending by half, or some combination of the two.
Here are some issues senior LGBTQ clients face and how you can help them.
Advisors providing retirement recommendations will find it helpful to use a graphical approach to show the year-by-year progression of funds available during retirement.
Market volatility does exist! After a year of all-time low volatility and booming stock and bond markets, investors received a wake-up call in February when equity indexes around the globe sold off by as much as 10% in a matter of days.
This is the fourth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields...
There are things coming at me from all corners – my own clients, my boss’ needs and other projects he wants me to be involved with in our firm – and he is asking me to obtain a certification, which I haven’t even been able to investigate yet.
Today's report on Industrial Production for March shows a 0.5% increase month-over-month, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 0.3%. The year-over-year change is 4.33%, down fractionally from last month's YoY increase.
Last month, I asked readers of Advisor Perspectives to help me think through some complicated issues regarding the future of the profession. Should the professional associations (like the FPA and NAPFA) consolidate in order to create more scale and unity, or should we maintain a healthy competition between them? Today we look at the responses I received.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as created a media frenzy and widespread confusion. With that in mind, I will provide a brief overview of the new provisions, followed by some practical ideas on how clients can reduce taxes.
Mid-sized advisor firms, upon graduating from being a one- or two-person operation, find themselves contending with all sorts of growing pains. All of a sudden they have the marketing issues of a larger firm – with an infrastructure that hasn’t caught up. Here’s my best advice to escape the trap of the mid-sized advisor firm.
The economic calendar is normal, with an emphasis on housing. Earnings season begins in earnest, with widespread, high expectations.
Note: With the release of March Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Month-over-month nominal sales in March increased by 0.6% (0.62% to two decimals). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.54%.
Today we’re going to look at who wins and who loses under the new tax law. I think many of you will be surprised.
How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.
We've updated this series to include this week's release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the March monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $37,778, down 13.0% from 45 years ago.
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
As a broker, once you have made a final decision to either change firms or go independent, you need to carefully review the impact your move will have on your current practice and on your book of business.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for February. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 103K.
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last week's Employment Report. This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
So-called “smart-beta” strategies hasn’t been all that smart lately – at least not for the last five years. This article will examine why, whether it was predictable and the likelihood it will work better going forward.
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.
Let's take a close look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government's Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of households. The focus is on total hours worked regardless of whether the hours are from a single or multiple jobs.
The evaluation of alternatives introduces an extra dimension into the equation that investors don’t need to think about with traditional equity funds. It’s the concept of capital efficiency.
Today we will look back at what economists thought the federal budget and tax policy would be in 2001 and thereafter. Let’s just say the government projections were a tad optimistic.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. March's 193K increase in total nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by downward revisions of 50K. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The Investing.com consensus was for 193K new jobs and the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.0%.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk? At present, the ratio for Continued Claims has been trending down. Excluding the 1981 recession, the Initial Claims trough lead time for a recession has ranged from 7 to 22 months with an average of 12 months if we include the 1981 recession and 14 months if we exclude it. Admittedly, the last recession is an extreme example, but the Initial Claims trough preceded its December 2007 onset by a whopping 22 months.
This morning's employment report for March showed a 103K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The Investing.com consensus was for 193K new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.0%.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $18,495 for an annualized real return of 12.36%.
Some new developments in Washington and recent court rulings have implications for those saving and investing for retirement. Drew Carrington, head of Institutional Defined Contribution at Franklin Templeton Investments, along with Michael Doshier, head of retirement marketing, examine the status of the Retirement Enhancement and Savings Act (RESA) and what it might mean for both plan sponsors and participants.
Implementing the use of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors into the investment process presents different challenges for fixed income and equity investors.
My advisors need to do a better job of presenting their ideas to clients.
BIS surprised many, when they back in 2015 concluded that ageing is actually inflationary. New research from Oxford Economics have come to precisely the opposite conclusion, which is why I have decided to do a deeper dive on the topic this month. Conclusion? BIS may have been correct in the past but, more recently, my vote would definitely go to the dis-inflationary camp.
There are four major mistakes that you don’t want to make when you file for Social Security. The good news is that they are all easy to avoid with a little preplanning.
Why do experts, CEOs, politicians, and other apparently highly capable people make such terrible decisions so often? Is because they’re ill-intentioned? Or because, despite appearances, they’re actually stupid? Nassim Nicholas Taleb, philosopher, businessman, perpetual troublemaker, and author of, among other works, the groundbreaking Fooled by Randomness, says it’s neither.
The stock market environment has changed since January, making it more challenging but also creating potential opportunities.
The economic calendar has several of the most important reports. The managerial rosters will be back at full strength, perhaps after an extra day or two off. Investment committees will consider implications from Q1 results. Pundits will try to explain what it all means.
Terri Spath is chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management. She is responsible for market and economic analysis, portfolio allocation, investment strategy and building client solutions. In this interview, she explains how tactical management differs from market timing, and why it will excel in the current environment.
The Retirement Channel
NewsLetter – April 2018
Read Harold Envensky's most recent Newsletter
The Final 10 of 50 Faster Growing Dividend Growth Stocks: Part 5
This is the fifth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields in addition to the initial 40 that I presented...
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 24K, Much Better Than Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 209K new claims, down 24K from the previous week's revised figure, was better the Investing.com forecast of 230K. From the release: "The claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal."
How Washington Will Spend Your Taxes in 2018
Today we’re going to look at how Washington spends our tax dollars. Specifically, we’ll look at a new report which shows how the federal government spends the income tax paid by the average family – and how they spend even more than what’s collected to create massive budget deficits year after year after year.
Yes. It's a Bubble. So What?
With sky-high valuations in the US stock market, and what we believe is a tech bubble that has dangerous implications for other areas of the market, we suggest four actions investors can take now to avoid the inevitable bursting of the bubble, and which will likely benefit their portfolios’ long-term performance potential.
Health Savings Accounts: The Intersection of Retirement and Health Care
The increasing costs of health insurance borne by employees and employers alike has spawned a variety of plans and strategies to help manage the expenses. Among these are health savings accounts (HSAs), which first came onto the scene in 2003.
How a High School Football Coach Landed NFL, MLB and NBA Clients
Professional athletes are among the most coveted clients for advisors – and present unique financial challenges that those athletes are typically ill-equipped to handle themselves. Paul Franklin leveraged his role as a high-school football coach to pursue a career serving those clients.
For Some Americans, Your Tax Rate Will Double
The cost of unfunded obligations like Social Security and Medicare will begin to crowd out all other budget items until the government is forced to either double taxes, reduce spending by half, or some combination of the two.
Special Considerations for Senior LGBTQ Clients
Here are some issues senior LGBTQ clients face and how you can help them.
Retirement Strategies in Pictures
Advisors providing retirement recommendations will find it helpful to use a graphical approach to show the year-by-year progression of funds available during retirement.
Market Outlook: Don't Forget Your Umbrella!
Market volatility does exist! After a year of all-time low volatility and booming stock and bond markets, investors received a wake-up call in February when equity indexes around the globe sold off by as much as 10% in a matter of days.
10 Fairly Valued Dividend Growth Stocks for Total Return: Part 4
This is the fourth of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article, I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields...
The Positive Side of Being Overwhelmed
There are things coming at me from all corners – my own clients, my boss’ needs and other projects he wants me to be involved with in our firm – and he is asking me to obtain a certification, which I haven’t even been able to investigate yet.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.5% in March
Today's report on Industrial Production for March shows a 0.5% increase month-over-month, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 0.3%. The year-over-year change is 4.33%, down fractionally from last month's YoY increase.
The Future of the FPA, the CFP Board and the Organizations that Run the Planning Profession
Last month, I asked readers of Advisor Perspectives to help me think through some complicated issues regarding the future of the profession. Should the professional associations (like the FPA and NAPFA) consolidate in order to create more scale and unity, or should we maintain a healthy competition between them? Today we look at the responses I received.
Five Tips for Clients on the New Tax Law
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as created a media frenzy and widespread confusion. With that in mind, I will provide a brief overview of the new provisions, followed by some practical ideas on how clients can reduce taxes.
How to Avoid the Mid-Sized Firm Trap
Mid-sized advisor firms, upon graduating from being a one- or two-person operation, find themselves contending with all sorts of growing pains. All of a sudden they have the marketing issues of a larger firm – with an infrastructure that hasn’t caught up. Here’s my best advice to escape the trap of the mid-sized advisor firm.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Strong Earnings Growth Already Reflected in Stock Prices?
The economic calendar is normal, with an emphasis on housing. Earnings season begins in earnest, with widespread, high expectations.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: March Real Retail Sales
Note: With the release of March Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Month-over-month nominal sales in March increased by 0.6% (0.62% to two decimals). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.54%.
How to Get Your Tax Weekend Back
Today we’re going to look at who wins and who loses under the new tax law. I think many of you will be surprised.
Checks and Balances
How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.
Five Decades of Middle-Class Wages: March 2018 Update
We've updated this series to include this week's release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the March monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $37,778, down 13.0% from 45 years ago.
Trade Outlook: Stormy
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
How Changing Firms Impacts a Broker’s Book of Business
As a broker, once you have made a final decision to either change firms or go independent, you need to carefully review the impact your move will have on your current practice and on your book of business.
U.S. Workforce Recovery
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for February. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 103K.
Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last week's Employment Report.
This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
Factor Investing – What Went Wrong?
So-called “smart-beta” strategies hasn’t been all that smart lately – at least not for the last five years. This article will examine why, whether it was predictable and the likelihood it will work better going forward.
Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.
The Ratio of Part-Time Employed: March 2018
Let's take a close look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government's Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of households. The focus is on total hours worked regardless of whether the hours are from a single or multiple jobs.
Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees in the Search for Portfolio Diversifiers
The evaluation of alternatives introduces an extra dimension into the equation that investors don’t need to think about with traditional equity funds. It’s the concept of capital efficiency.
Assumptions Equal Problems
Today we will look back at what economists thought the federal budget and tax policy would be in 2001 and thereafter. Let’s just say the government projections were a tad optimistic.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: March Nonfarm Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. March's 193K increase in total nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by downward revisions of 50K. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The Investing.com consensus was for 193K new jobs and the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.0%.
The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk? At present, the ratio for Continued Claims has been trending down. Excluding the 1981 recession, the Initial Claims trough lead time for a recession has ranged from 7 to 22 months with an average of 12 months if we include the 1981 recession and 14 months if we exclude it. Admittedly, the last recession is an extreme example, but the Initial Claims trough preceded its December 2007 onset by a whopping 22 months.
March Jobs Report: 103K New Jobs, Disappoints Forecast
This morning's employment report for March showed a 103K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The Investing.com consensus was for 193K new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.0%.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $18,495 for an annualized real return of 12.36%.
Implications of DOL Fiduciary Rule Decisions and RESA Legislation
Some new developments in Washington and recent court rulings have implications for those saving and investing for retirement. Drew Carrington, head of Institutional Defined Contribution at Franklin Templeton Investments, along with Michael Doshier, head of retirement marketing, examine the status of the Retirement Enhancement and Savings Act (RESA) and what it might mean for both plan sponsors and participants.
The ESG Conundrum: Environmental, Social and Governance Factors for the Fixed Income Investor
Implementing the use of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors into the investment process presents different challenges for fixed income and equity investors.
Six Keys to a Crisp, Compelling Client Presentation
My advisors need to do a better job of presenting their ideas to clients.
The Inflationary Impact of Ageing
BIS surprised many, when they back in 2015 concluded that ageing is actually inflationary. New research from Oxford Economics have come to precisely the opposite conclusion, which is why I have decided to do a deeper dive on the topic this month. Conclusion? BIS may have been correct in the past but, more recently, my vote would definitely go to the dis-inflationary camp.
The Four Costliest Social Security Mistakes
There are four major mistakes that you don’t want to make when you file for Social Security. The good news is that they are all easy to avoid with a little preplanning.
Why Nassim Taleb Thinks Leaders Make Poor Decisions
Why do experts, CEOs, politicians, and other apparently highly capable people make such terrible decisions so often? Is because they’re ill-intentioned? Or because, despite appearances, they’re actually stupid? Nassim Nicholas Taleb, philosopher, businessman, perpetual troublemaker, and author of, among other works, the groundbreaking Fooled by Randomness, says it’s neither.
Schwab Market Perspective: Navigating the Changing Market Environment
The stock market environment has changed since January, making it more challenging but also creating potential opportunities.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Have Stock Prices Veered from the Fundamentals?
The economic calendar has several of the most important reports. The managerial rosters will be back at full strength, perhaps after an extra day or two off. Investment committees will consider implications from Q1 results. Pundits will try to explain what it all means.
The Keys to Successful Tactical Management
Terri Spath is chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management. She is responsible for market and economic analysis, portfolio allocation, investment strategy and building client solutions. In this interview, she explains how tactical management differs from market timing, and why it will excel in the current environment.