Train Crash Preview
Today we will summarize something I’ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12–18 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be “rationalized” via some form of nonpayment. Whatever you want to call it, I think a worldwide debt default is likely in the next 10–12 years.
Blockchain Will Completely Revolutionize How We Mine Gold and Precious Metals
This week I had the pleasure to attend Consensus 2018 in New York, the premiere gathering for the who’s who in blockchain, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Attendance doubled from last year to an estimated 8,500 people, all of them packed in a Hilton built for only 3,000. Ticket sales alone pulled in a whopping $17 million, while event booths—the largest of which belonged to Microsoft and IBM—generated untold millions more.
Outlook May 2018
Market signals have been decidedly mixed thus far into the year. By this time a year ago, the S&P 500 had already returned 5%. Today, in early May, the S&P 500 is down fractionally, while volatility and bond yields are up.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Increases Continue in April
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April increased to 109.4 from a revised 109.0 in March. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) came in at 103.5, up from the previous month.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 11K from Last Week
This morning's seasonally adjusted 222K new claims, up 11K from the previous week's figure, was worse the Investing.com forecast of 215K. From the release: "The claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal."
A-Rod’s Financial Plan
Even the most avid baseball fan may not realize that A-Rod, who was one of the highest paid players in MLB history, says that committing to a financial plan from the onset enabled him to successfully make it from rags to riches.
To Crack into Prospects, Try Cracking Them Up
Humor is a lethal weapon. To connect better with your audience, refresh them, relieve tension in stressful situations and be more relatable and real to the people you want to impress, here are ways to infuse humor into your business, and some that you’re better off leaving out.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Which Stocks Benefit Most from Trump Policy Changes?
The economic calendar is normal, but there will be a lot of competing news – Korean talks, China negotiations, and the Trump legal team’s announcement about whether the President will meet with Special Counsel Mueller. And those are just the items we know about!
First Eagle: “Passive Investing Could Prove to be an Expensive Mistake”
First Eagle’s Global Fund (SGENX) is its flagship fund, with over $55 billion in assets. As of April 30, 2018, since inception (1/1/79), the Fund has returned 13.15% annually, versus 9.67% for the MSCI World Index. Over the last 15 years, it has been in the top 2% of its peer group. I spoke with its managers, Matthew B. McLennan and Kimball Brooker, Jr., on May 1.
My Conversation with Bitcoin Visionary Marco Streng
This week I had the opportunity to sit down with Marco Streng, the wunderkind bitcoin visionary behind Genesis Mining. Genesis, as many of you reading this might know, is the world’s largest cloud bitcoin mining company, with over 2 million customers worldwide. It calls Iceland home, whose cool climate and affordable green energy are ideal for mining newly minted virgin cryptocurrencies. Last year, Genesis helped connect the blockchain sector and traditional capital markets by partnering with HIVE Blockchain Technologies, the first publicly traded digital currency mining firm.
Oil Prices Likely to Rise With U.S. Withdrawal From Iran Nuclear Deal
The U.S. decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has potentially profound implications for the oil market. While withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) creates many known unknowns, any reduction in Iranian supply will likely exacerbate market deficits, suggesting upward pressure on pricing.
Across the Line
A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.
Unicorns Exist Only When Money Is Free
When the Fed instituted ZIRP, investors were overenthusiastic to invest in the next great Unicorn. Now that rates are rising and money is no longer free, investors are beginning to realize that rational investing and positive cash flows trump hype and speculation.
Consumer Price Index: April Headline at 2.46%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.46%, up from 2.36% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.14%, up from the previous month's 2.12% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.
The Unappealing Yield of US Treasuries for Foreign Buyers & US Dollar Strength
With the European Central Bank dragging its feet to begin the monetary tightening cycle, the difference between US and German rates has opened up to record levels. In the chart below, I show the yield on 10 Year US Treasury Bonds and 10 Year German Bunds.