With Inflation Rising, Commodities May Shine
Many investors who thought worrying about inflation was “so 20th century” may now be seeing reasons to reconsider: The business cycle in the U.S. is mature, output gaps have closed, trade frictions are mounting and populism is on the rise.
GMO's 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts Still Favor Non-US Markets
Most global equity markets declined in the first quarter despite the corporate sector generally reporting reasonable fundamental data. As a result, GMO's 7-year equity forecasts mostly improved over the first quarter. Even with these improvements, International and U.S. equities are still forecast to have flat to negative real returns over the next 7 years, with Emerging equities remaining an exception, forecast to have a positive real return of 1.9%.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Strong Earnings Growth Already Reflected in Stock Prices?
The economic calendar is normal, with an emphasis on housing. Earnings season begins in earnest, with widespread, high expectations.
Don’t Abandon International Diversification
To address questions about the benefits of international investing and diversification, we don’t have to look too far back in time.
Which Has the Bigger Economy: Texas or Russia?
You’ve no doubt heard that everything’s bigger in Texas. That’s more than just a trite expression, and I’m not just saying that because Texas is home to U.S. Global Investors.
Why U.S. Stocks May Still Not Be "Cheap Enough"
Prospects for a trade war are having an impact on markets, but for bargain hunters, stocks are still expensive. Russ suggests looking outside the U.S.
March Validated February’s Initiation Of A New, Higher Volatility Regime
The high level of volatility in February persisted through March as markets digested the implications of tighter monetary policy, troubles in the technology sector and the prospect of a tariff-induced trade war. The global equity market notched its first quarterly loss and its highest volatility since Q3 2015. Another Fed rate hike in March further tilted the yield curve to its flattest level in more than a decade. The S&P 500 Managed Risk Index saw its equity allocation reduced down to 67% heading into April.
Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees in the Search for Portfolio Diversifiers
The evaluation of alternatives introduces an extra dimension into the equation that investors don’t need to think about with traditional equity funds. It’s the concept of capital efficiency.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $18,495 for an annualized real return of 12.36%.
State‑Specific Municipal Portfolios: When Do the Benefits Outweigh the Costs?
Recent tax reform has increased the dialogue around state preference municipal portfolios, and some municipal investors are inquiring whether state-specific or state preference portfolios are a good fit in the current environment.
No, Washington Is Not to Blame for the Volatility
Many are pointing a finger at Washington for the recent spike in volatility. But, as Russ explains, the catalysts lie elsewhere.
The ESG Conundrum: Environmental, Social and Governance Factors for the Fixed Income Investor
Implementing the use of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors into the investment process presents different challenges for fixed income and equity investors.
Turn Turn Turn
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
Beware of the Misinterpretations of the CAPE Ratio
While U.S. equity valuations clearly are at historically high levels, is the outlook as bleak as it seems? Perhaps not. Let’s see why that is the case.
Go West, Young Investor…But Go Wisely: Intelligent Investing in an Unintelligent Landscape
Investing requires bearing risk to reap rewards, but there is no definitive causal relationship here. Just because you might be willing to pack up your wagon and head off into the sunset doesn’t ensure you’ll be rewarded with wealth. Today investors should be particularly diligent in assessing risk before setting off on any journey.