The Asset Allocation Channel

The Case for Owning Gold

Thomas Kertsos is a portfolio manager and senior research analyst at First Eagle Investment Management. He is the manager of the First Eagle Gold Fund (SGGSX), which, as of June 30, has returned 5.37% since its inception, on 8/31/93. That is 645 basis points better than its benchmark, the FTSE Gold Mines Index (-1.08%).

Mid-Year Outlook: Be More Selective in the Second Half

After a strong first half to 2017 for equities, the message for the remainder of the year is to look for returns more carefully in the second half says Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors. The “country factor” will be key: We believe investors can no longer rely on a rising tide of cyclical data to lift all boats.

An Active Look at Small-Cap Investing

Overall, we believe small-cap stocks in emerging markets offer attractive prospects for active managers. A multitude of mispriced securities, market inefficiencies and a paucity of research provide considerable investment opportunities, in our view.

Dynamic Asset Allocation for Practitioners Part 1: Universe Selection

In 2012 we published a whitepaper entitled “Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer” in which we built upon the simple, robust momentum framework proposed by Mebane Faber in his 2009 study “Relative Strength Strategies for Investing.”

Fund Manager Allocations

Global equities have risen 7% in the past 3 months and 16% in the past year, yet fund managers continue to hold significant amounts of cash, suggesting lingering doubts and fears.

The Geekiest (and Most Important) Number Nobody Is Discussing

Russ explains why investors should pay more attention to the stock-bond correlation coefficient and understand its impact on investment portfolios.

How Conservative Should Investors Be Given Economic and Market Conditions?

We have created an adaptive regime-based investment framework that generates multi-asset and equity-sector-rotation model portfolios. The investment objective of these model portfolios is to combine downside protection with upside participation. Many firms say they do this – but our process integrates macroeconomic and financial cycle risk.

Building the Perfect Barbell

Investors who want to reduce risk and maintain a steady income might consider a barbell strategy that pairs interest rate–sensitive bonds with high-yielding credit assets. But first, it’s important to strike the right balance.

On My Radar: The HY Market… A Leading Indicator

At a conference in Chicago this week, following up on last week’s letter, Keep Dancing but with a Sharp Eye on the Tea Leaves, an advisor client asked me what my favorite “tea leaf” might be. When one of the greatest investors of our time, Ray Dalio, tells us to keep an eye on the exit door we should take note. But how? And when?

“Mother of All Bubbles” Keeps Gold in Focus

Today I want to discuss reports that global debt levels are at all-time highs, and what this means for your investment decisions going forward.

Quarterly Strategy Update: Structural Rotation

This quarter, we look at two important structural changes that appear to be underway: a normalization in US and European monetary policy and a normalization in crude oil inventories.

Sizing Up Markets—and Your Investment Strategy

Today’s risks are clear: stock valuations are high, credit spreads are tight and interest rates remain low. A modest tilt toward return-seeking assets still makes sense. But investors should also be willing to look beyond traditional stocks and bonds.

Revisiting the Traditional Emerging Market Equities Allocation Framework

Bhartia, a portfolio manager on GMO’s Emerging Markets Equities team, and his colleague Mehak Dua, explore the benefits of combining a risk-based approach with valuation in an asset class that has grown considerably more complex over the last three decades.

More & More Americans Having to Work Past Age 70

Nearly one-fifth (19%) of Americans age 70 to 74 were still in the workforce as of the end of June, according to the latest jobs report from the Labor Department on July 7. Some are working because they are healthy and enjoy their work. Most, however, are still working because they haven’t saved nearly enough for retirement.

Just more of the same…

Some good data below so I won’t draw out this intro. Stay focused overseas. Keep an eye on earnings which will hopefully be better than the reception that the big banks received on Friday. (But don’t worry, the bank disappointments were interest margin and loan growth caused, not credit related.)