Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.

Treasuries rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole cemented expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month.

Are we going to have a recession? Are we already in a recession?

With recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, inflation moderating back to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, and expectations for rate cuts, we believe the winds are shifting in the U.S. fixed income market.

Before the pandemic hit in 2020, a decade-long bull run in the stock market saw the 60/40 portfolio slowly fall out of favor. With market volatility returning, that 60/40 split appears to be making a comeback.

If interest rates decrease over the next 12 months, as the market expects, long duration bonds could potentially provide equity-like returns for investors.

Robust U.S. stock momentum hit a slowdown in the third quarter, even as strong company earnings results rolled in. Fundamental Equities’ U.S. and Developed Markets CIO Carrie King weighs in on the incongruence with three reflections from Q2 earnings season.

It’s widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, perhaps by as much as 50 basis points. That would potentially provide a much needed positive jolt to bonds and fixed income ETFs.

Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.

Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.

The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.

Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.

Chair Jerome Powell will usher in the next chapter in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle on Friday, when he’s expected to set the table for an interest-rate cut while reassuring investors that policymakers can stave off a sharp economic slowdown.

The worst of the housing affordability crisis is behind us. But the past two years have shown that housing isn’t a bubble that is likely to pop overnight, nor can prices be forced lower in the short term with government intervention. Rising incomes, falling mortgage rates, more construction and thoughtful policy will slowly chip away at the affordability problem.

We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.

Since the release of ChatGPT, mega-cap technology companies poised to profit from AI-enhanced software tools or cloud AI-model training capabilities have seen a surge in their stock prices. Yet, many have yet to realize significant AI-driven revenue growth, let alone a substantial impact on their bottom lines.

As recently as the beginning of this year the market pundits were predicting up to six Federal Reserve rate cuts to the short-term Federal Funds Rate. Shockingly, the pundits’ expectations have not come to fruition. Predictions based on the sentiment of the day fill the twenty-four-hour news cycle on multiple outlets.

On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Capital Group Municipal Income ETF (CGMU) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.

Join the experts at Eaton Vance for a webcast discussing best ideas for fixed income positioning going forward.

Strategas’ Todd Sohn highlights the industry’s chase for record inflows and discusses everything from recent ETF filings to market concentration risk. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang talks new ETF launches, small caps, REITs, and much more.

Given the inevitable ups and downs of the financial world, the joy of missing out on the frenzy might be a strong component of long-term financial and emotional wellbeing.

I have received a lot of blowback from my recommendation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) drop the Fed Runds Rate by 150 basis points (bps) over the next several weeks. Certainly, the data has come in stronger than I (and many others) have anticipated. Particularly surprising was the drop in jobless claims, now nearer to the midpoint of my 200k to 240k range after breaching the upper limit.

Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.

A recent article co-authored by Stephen Miran and Dr. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, accuses the U.S. Treasury Department of using its debt-issuance powers to manipulate financial conditions.

While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!

Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.

Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market is going to move a certain way. They reposition their portfolios accordingly… just in time to find out the information was wrong. Oof.

Investors including JPMorgan Asset Management, M&G Investments and Aviva Investors say they seized on the retreat in riskier assets at the start of the month to bolster their holdings of emerging-market bonds.

Decisions made by the Treasury get much less attention than those made by the Federal Reserve, but they can be even more consequential for interest rates — and the entire US economy.

Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.

The current economic landscape is fraught with uncertainty, and the potential for higher inflation continues to pose a real threat to market stability.

June’s rate of inflation showed, for the first time in several years, an important slowdown in shelter costs, something that economists, us included, have been expecting for a very long time but had not materialized.

Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.

Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.

Earlier this year, around the time Nvidia Corp.’s market cap eclipsed that of the entire S&P 500 energy sector, I wrote about whether oil and gas stocks might offer a decent hedge when AI-fever breaks. The past several weeks have offered a test.

Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.

New-home construction in the US fell in July to the lowest level since the aftermath of the pandemic as builders respond to weak demand that’s keeping inventory levels high.

At the end of next year, most of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are set to expire. If nothing is done, taxes will go up. Both presidential contenders say they won’t let this happen and have promised to extend many or most of the law’s changes.

In a part of the US market for exchange-traded funds that has become known for increasingly risky products, a new offering has debuted that stands out in the crowd.

A popular yen-centered carry trade that blew up spectacularly two weeks ago is staging a comeback.

If rising layoffs and weakening consumption are going to snowball into a US recession at some point, my interpretation is that the mass of macroeconomic ice crystals is still only about the size of a marble.

Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.

The recent U.S. Treasury yield rally is compared to a similar rally in Q4 2023, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

As much as my two-pronged dividend strategy works in all markets, we still need to acknowledge that politics influences the market. Sometimes it’s a tangible impact like big swings in the price of oil. Other times it’s just investor sentiment moving the market.

We manage risk within our strategic, long-term allocations based on diversification across equity, fixed income, and alternative assets.

The BlackRock Flexible Income ETF (BINC) launched less than 15 months ago and is already approaching $4 billion in AUM.

Is private equity a problem? To what extent could this class of investment funds, which manages almost $9 trillion worldwide on behalf of everyone from wealthy individuals to California teachers, cause or propagate the next financial crisis?

The inflation numbers this week — both for producer and consumer prices — have served to reassure markets in two distinct ways: confirming continued progress in the battle against high price increases and supporting the ongoing shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus from its inflation mandate to its employment mandate.

Your portfolio can be the key to managing cash and maintaining flexibility.