Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
Whatever the exact cause of recent volatility, the more significant point is that it was an opportunity to add credit risk amid a positive outlook for underlying fundamentals.
In episode 14 of the Alternative Allocations podcast series, Richard shares reasons why the current disruptive market environment offers a great opportunity for commercial real estate debt, such as better risk adjusted return potential, low to negative correlation to traditional investments, and higher income. Understanding the opportunity, Tony and Richard review the many roles that commercial real estate debt can play in client portfolios.
The forthcoming presidential election is certainly adding a healthy dose of intrigue into the municipal bond space.
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
Investors pursuing widely followed 60/40 strategies should consider swapping out bonds for commodities, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a mild pace and household spending picked up in July, reinforcing policymakers’ plan to start cutting interest rates next month.
The US economic data released in early August not only triggered a brief, but dramatic episode of financial-market volatility. It also fueled an abnormal degree of instability in forecasts by leading Wall Street economists, suggesting that they, like the Federal Reserve, may have lost their strategic bearings.
As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
Many recent studies have been done on the economics of different generations. Researchers want to know if Millennials and Gen Z are in fact worse off than their Boomer and Gen X parents. There are quite a few ways to look at this data.
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
The path for lower rates in the U.S. has finally arrived.
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
Rules are made to be broken, so I would call this a 50 percent starting place in your discussion with the client. I certainly wouldn’t recommend only a 50 percent equity portfolio to a young client with a high willingness and need to take risk or the same to any client who had a low willingness and need to take risk.
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
Is the Japanese yen carry trade back on? Tough question. We think it is, now that the Bank of Japan has toned down its hawkish rhetoric. More on that later. Still, even if we are wrong, the reality is that the market will be talking about the violent ructions of August 2024 for the rest of our careers.
US Treasury yields edged higher after resilient economic reports prompted traders to slightly trim their expectations for the scope of Federal Reserve easing this year.
In an election year, we are bound to hear a lot of commentary about the merits and drawbacks of both major candidates’ economic policies. History shows that while a president’s policies can make life easier or more difficult for various sectors of the economy, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy has much more impact on the economy overall.
HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.
The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market.
The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.
With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.
A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
My colleague Will Keenan recommended an outstanding book, The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King, by Michael Craig. The book is a short and entertaining read of how Andy Beal played the best poker players in the world heads-up. He not only gambled toe-to-toe, but he also reminded them that they were doing what everyone should think poker is: gambling.
Improve your income potential with a tactical, unconstrained strategy that sources opportunities across geographies and asset classes. BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund takes a risk-first approach while seeking to deliver a consistently attractive yield.
“What happened in 1971?” It is one of the most important and debated questions in US economic history, and new research suggests that the answer may be lurking a few decades earlier — in 1948, to be precise.
It’s been the ultimate no-brainer for more than a year: Park your money in super-safe Treasury bills, earn yields of more than 5%, rinse and repeat. Or as billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach put it last October, “T-bill and chill.”
One of the last remaining bright spots for Chinese consumption is rapidly fading, as the nation’s economic malaise takes a toll on demand for even the most accessible of goods.
When you master the art of trust-based selling, you’ll be able to create trust in a split-second and never feel afraid about losing a client again.
Happy National Cheap Flight Day! Yes, you heard that right—there is a national celebration day to mark the start of a lull in travel demand. Who knew this would be a day to celebrate? Regardless, it’s good news for consumers as airfares should continue their recent downward trend!
Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.
As tough as financial advisors claim to be, we still get nervous about “firing” clients, too. When we say “graduate,” that is our delicate way of handling an uncomfortable situation. It’s a cheap, but effective way to massage the misgivings that we have about terminating client relationships.
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
As a businessman and ex-business owner, the idea of firms ‘hoarding’ workers never made sense. As an economist, the idea of firms hoarding workers never made sense either.
Expectations heading into Nvidia Corp.’s Wednesday report are high, with analysts anticipating another strong consensus beat that could prompt the chipmaker to raise its profit guidance.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday removed all doubt that interest rate cuts are just around the corner. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said at his much-hyped annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, setting off a knee-jerk rally in stocks and bonds.
Mark Zuckerberg may have a history of copying of others’ ideas, but when it comes to navigating the generative AI hype cycle, he’s the one forging a smarter path.
For years, a Chinese company has dominated one of the most lucrative corners of the cryptocurrency universe. Rising political tensions, and the prospect of Donald Trump retaking the White House, pose an unprecedented threat to that reign.
There’s no shortage of market-moving events on the docket to keep Wall Street busy right now.
Over nearly three decades, I’ve been dedicated to the sport of running. For the last five years, I chased the elusive goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, my ultimate aspiration. It wasn’t until I sought the expertise of a professional coach that I finally achieved this dream.
An Oaktree Capital Management LP venture plans to seek an equity partner to help develop a Dublin project that’s expected to be valued at billions of euro when it’s completed, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
