GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.

The recent U.S. Treasury yield rally is compared to a similar rally in Q4 2023, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

The inflation numbers this week — both for producer and consumer prices — have served to reassure markets in two distinct ways: confirming continued progress in the battle against high price increases and supporting the ongoing shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus from its inflation mandate to its employment mandate.

For years, the emphasis within fixed income investing has been to seek security-specific alpha in an illiquid bond market where no single security significantly impacts portfolio returns.

Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?

Bond investors pared back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts slightly as data showed US inflation ebbed further in July, reinforcing the case for a quarter-point reduction next month.

The headlines suggest catastrophe for the global food supply: Biblical heatwaves, floods, storms and wildfires. And yet, in the world’s breadbaskets, the weather has been fair this growing season — so good that we’re facing an oversupply of key agricultural commodities and thus much lower prices than in 2022 and 2023.

A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be.

Common wisdom is that consumers are pulling back on spending, but some green shoots are sprouting that might break ground as big retailers prepare to report second-quarter results.

Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.

For plan sponsors, the trend toward de-risking often leads to a simplification of the equity manager lineup in the return-seeking portion of the portfolio.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he’s skeptical that inflation will return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, citing risks including deficit spending and “remilitarization of the world.”

US producer prices rose in July by less than forecast, reflecting the first decline in services costs this year amid an ongoing moderation in inflationary pressures.

The tricky last yards of closing in on — and then maintaining — the hallowed 2% inflation target that all the major central banks adhere to requires a change of tactics. Over the past two years, a mantra of economic data-dependency has been drummed into us, keeping interest rates higher for longer.

Last Monday morning, I tried to shake up the conversation about how far behind the curve the Federal Reserve (Fed) is currently by suggesting an inter-meeting 75 basis points (bps) cut and another 75 bps cut in September.

The Bank of Japan needs to proceed cautiously.

Pretty much every month there’s one week that has the most important economic reports. For the month of August that’s this week. The reports this week include consumer price inflation, producer prices, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and unemployment claims.

During volatile times, it is important to maintain perspective, stay focused on your long-term objectives, and avoid knee-jerk reactions based on the latest twists and turns in the market.

The benchmark indexes for emerging-market equities and currencies, respectively, moved in opposite directions Monday, deepening a trend that emerged last week, when their short-term correlation was interrupted for the first time in 21 years.

One of the most widely followed gauges of the stock market, for decades a reliable indicator of future returns, has led investors astray in recent years. Its misdirection comes down to the freakish earnings growth of big technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. But there’s a way to revamp this market barometer as worries about elevated expectations and prices grow.

The recent decline in mortgage rates on stronger evidence that the Federal Reserve is poised to ease policy has fueled hopes of better times ahead for companies tied to the housing market. That’s likely true, but the evidence of the past few weeks suggests it’s already too late for a revival this year.

Slower employment cements the case for the Fed to start a series of rate cuts.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

I can't let this month pass without noting a significant anniversary: This is the 25th year I’ve been writing Thoughts from the Frontline. You can visit the archive and see every issue since January 2001.

On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.

On Monday, global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets. The S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years.

When the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mortgage rates fell below 3% in 2021 and many households refinanced or obtained new loans.

Emerging-market currencies are set to clock their biggest weekly gains of 2024, led by a rise in Brazil’s real on expectations its central bank could raise interest rates later this year.

China’s two-speed economy and the internationalization of the renminbi suggest long-term opportunities may be found amid near-term challenges.

It looks like investors have been adding shares of Amazon.com to their carts in recent weeks.

Multi-asset strategies must adapt to a promising—but changeable—environment for generating income.

When the Federal Reserve lowers its key short-term interest rate, the impact isn't uniform across the financial universe.

Everybody loves a good comeback story: Seabiscuit. The Mighty Ducks. 493 stocks in the S&P 500 index.

A large majority of economists surveyed see only a quarter-point decrease in interest rates coming in September — a finding that’s at odds with calls from some large Wall Street banks for a jumbo cut at the next meeting.

Back in June, a mystery investor made a record wager on long-dated Treasuries, creating waves in the ETF market where trading pros seek clues about sentiment on Wall Street. Now the firm behind that bet has revealed itself, and says its recession call is finally coming to fruition.

In this PIMCO Perspectives, we explore the dispersion playing out across monetary policy and financial markets.

The growth of bureaucracy around the world has led to a proliferation of rules. This creates multitudes of problems, one of which is that the state has made understanding what it is doing impenetrable, boring, nuanced, and technical.

After absorbing the US Federal Reserve's repeated assurances that a “fundamentally healthy” economy gave it ample time to decide on when to cut interest rates, the market was caught by surprise when new data suggested otherwise. Such is the danger of signaling a consensus where none exists.

The early August sell-off could represent just the market taking a breather after seven months of fantastic returns and could be right back on track, albeit with additional volatility.

Has the US Federal Reserve gone too far in its fight against inflation, tipping the world’s largest economy into a damaging recession?

Hastily, investors have turned their worry about inflation into worry about a recession. The catalyst was Friday’s unexpectedly disappointing unemployment number.

The US Federal Reserve appears to have finally brought about the recession that it engineers whenever unemployment is low and the president is a Democrat. If it costs the party the White House in November, may its leaders use their time out of power to reflect on the unwisdom of their decades-old bargain with Wall Street.

Until recently, the prevailing market narrative since October was that the Fed was in a "pivot" to eventual rate cuts.

For bond investors looking to the near- and longer-term, Matt Eagan stepped through considerations and opportunities in the global market.

Friday’s jobs report has put a damper on economic sentiment for the moment. But much hype has been made about the so-called “Great Rotation.”

Andy Rothman provides four reasons why he’s stubbornly convinced that Xi Jinping will eventually overcome his stubbornness and make the changes necessary to put China back on track to reach its potential growth rate.

One of the very popular technology companies in recent years has been CrowdStrike, Inc. It provides cybersecurity to numerous major technology companies including the top Artificial Intelligence (AI) players.

Turmoil in the markets has renewed fears that the US did not escape history after all, that a hard landing — a recession — is coming. Whether this is all a blip from a rising yen or a justified reaction to an actual weakening of the US economy is still unknowable.

Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low.

Fiscal conservatism has more or less vanished from America’s political landscape. Government borrowing, despite the strong economy, continues to push public debt to record levels – and the presidential contenders and their parties say scarcely a word about it.