The cost of a college education continues to rise, and along with it, student debt. Roger Michaud, senior vice president and director of college savings for the Franklin Templeton 529 College Savings Plan, and Mike O’Brien, director, Program Marketing, Global Client Marketing, look at how mounting student debt could have a long-term impact on one’s future.

John Williams, one of the newest members of the Federal Open Market Committee, wrote an article titled “The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?” where he summarized his views on real neutral interest rates.

In this month's Global Economic Perspective, our Fixed Income Group opines on rising energy prices, US Treasury yields, emerging-market currency pressures and global economic growth.

Data mining is a huge risk with factor-based investment strategies. Many factors have proven to not work in practice. Even the most popular factors, like value and momentum, may prove less effective going forward.

The verdict remains out as to whether recent initiatives in India, such as the note ban and the Goods and Services Tax, will constitute significant steps forward in the country’s quest to become a modern and globally competitive industrial economy.

With the rapid development of single country ETFs, capturing factor alpha at the country level may prove to be an efficient, practical alternative to individual stock selection. In this study, we look at how effectively our internally-developed EM stock selection model can guide country overweights/underweights. Back testing shows that stock-level factor alpha can indeed be captured at the country level.

Last week’s Barron’s cover story asked whether U.S. value stocks are primed to break out of their “funk” after 10 years of underperformance vs. growth stocks. Many of the “growth” companies that dominate growth indexes/portfolios and look more “expensive” are actually the winners of secular changes that have occurred while value indices/portfolios are littered with casualties of the change.

First Eagle’s Global Fund (SGENX) is its flagship fund, with over $55 billion in assets. As of April 30, 2018, since inception (1/1/79), the Fund has returned 13.15% annually, versus 9.67% for the MSCI World Index. Over the last 15 years, it has been in the top 2% of its peer group. I spoke with its managers, Matthew B. McLennan and Kimball Brooker, Jr., on May 1.

A more challenging investing environment requires a more disciplined and patient investing approach. The next few months could continue to be choppy, but a U.S. and/or global recession still appears a ways off, which should keep the bull market—here and globally—intact.

I’ve been getting lots of questions about whether the value premium still exists. Today I’ll share my thoughts on that issue. I’ll begin by explaining why I have been receiving such inquiries.

Global growth has been accelerating, but there are a few potential headwinds that could cause it to stall. Three of our senior investment leaders—Ed Perks, Chris Molumphy and Stephen Dover—recently participated in a panel discussion on the potential impact of trade tensions, inflation and other issues on their radar.

New developments in fiscal policy, the labor market, and the neutral interest rate suggest that the expansion could extend into the latter half of our recession range.

The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

Since tax reform was passed the corporate earnings jump has been extraordinary…but is the good news already priced in to stocks?

The first quarter of 2018 started out like a lamb but went out like a lion as long-dormant volatility began to roar. Issues like inflation fears, trade tensions and geopolitical risks contributed to market turbulence, leaving many investors wondering whether these issues will put a damper on global growth—and end the US market’s nine-year bull run.

The economic calendar is normal, with an emphasis on inflation data. The week will begin with analysis of the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting, the wisdom of Buffett and Munger, and a multi-hour CNBC program including Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates.

The traditional 60/40 model no longer can be expected to deliver the same type of results. A new model is for investors to move toward more of a risk-parity portfolio, with assets more equally divided among stocks, bonds and these new alternatives.

As concerns about inflation spread, it’s time to gauge how different types of stocks will respond. Smaller companies in niche markets may be better positioned to cope with rising prices—especially in consolidating industries.

Oil prices are rising. We explore the causes of this recent trend and the effects it will have on markets across the world.

Call it the news of the year, perhaps even of the decade. For the first time since the Korean Peninsula was divided in 1948, leaders of the two warring nations met late last week in what had the look and feel of a jovial reconciliation between two estranged family members. Kim Jong-un of North Korea and President Moon Kae-in of South Korea made a number of important, though tentative, breakthroughs, including an agreement to denuclearize the peninsula and a pledge to revisit several infrastructure projects that would help bring some economic unity to the two Koreas.

Elon Musk is possibly the most interesting man in the world, in our opinion. His nobility comes from his past as a founder of PayPal, but his popularity only grows in this era as he seeks to tackle big projects that include the car business, space, mass transit and other subjects.

The economic calendar is huge, including the most important monthly data and plenty of earnings reports. With a Fed meeting on the calendar and Tuesday’s decline attributed to the ten-year note touching 3%, the punditry will be asking: Will economic data drive interest rates higher?

We believe The New Neutral of lower-for-longer equilibrium policy rates remains a valid anchor over the medium term. The key drivers of low equilibrium rates – including demographic trends and the high level of leverage in the global economy – have not substantially changed since the financial crisis.

We are constructive on Chinese equities despite tensions over trade. We see protectionist threats as largely negotiating tactics, while Chinese reforms, a stable growth environment and a solid earnings outlook support equities.

This week, the economics team takes a look at NAFTA, past and present.

I’m bullish, but I don’t expect bitcoin to test $20,000 again in the short term, especially before July. That’s when G20 finance ministers are scheduled to present their recommendations on how cryptocurrencies should be regulated.

We all knew volatility couldn’t stay low forever, even with solid global growth and low inflation. Rising volatility is common in the late stage of the economic cycle, and negative headlines have been dominating market sentiment.

The last time we wrote about the US dollar London lnterbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) was in 2016, when the spread between LIBOR and the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rate increased due to market dislocations leading up to US money market fund reform. Now in early 2018, we have seen LIBOR rates rise and LIBOR-OIS spreads widen again, causing us to ask the same question — what’s up with LIBOR?

We are growing accustomed to wide daily swings in the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Triple-digit moves in the latter and double-digit changes in the former are no longer reasons for elation or alarm. The volatility can result from an unexpected economic report or a tweet from the White House.

As his 60-year tenure attests, Dan Fuss is one of the most respected bond investors. In my interview with Fuss last week, he explained why it would take either a geopolitical crisis or an economic collapse to drive rates lower. Fuss also said investors should exercise caution in bond ETF markets that are exposed to liquidity shocks.

Written in 1606, Shakespeare’s words are just as relevant today. Tweets and eye-catching headlines dominate the news cycle and many conversations, but when you parse them for impactful content, you realize it’s mostly just white noise.

With sky-high valuations in the US stock market, and what we believe is a tech bubble that has dangerous implications for other areas of the market, we suggest four actions investors can take now to avoid the inevitable bursting of the bubble, and which will likely benefit their portfolios’ long-term performance potential.

The increasing costs of health insurance borne by employees and employers alike has spawned a variety of plans and strategies to help manage the expenses. Among these are health savings accounts (HSAs), which first came onto the scene in 2003.

Technology companies are known for innovation, and it doesn’t take long for a revolutionary new technology to take hold and become a part of people’s daily lives. In my view, investors shouldn’t be threatened by technology. Rather, they should be skeptical of companies not utilizing technology to its fullest potential.

Hedge funds, as represented by the Barclay index, can effectively be viewed as equity replacements. Further, the proper benchmark for equity hedge funds is target volatility strategies.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report the advance estimate of 1Q18 GDP growth on April 27. These figures will be revised, but the underlying story is not expected to change much. Growth was likely moderate, not horrible, but far short of the lofty expectations that some had put forth at the start of the quarter. Nobody appears too worried about that.

The tax efficiency of the Value factor can be improved by reducing exposure to dividend-yielding stocks. Improving the tax efficiency reduces the performance in Europe and Japan, but not in the US. Reducing turnover can be considered for minimising capital gains and stamp duty taxes.

Advisors providing retirement recommendations will find it helpful to use a graphical approach to show the year-by-year progression of funds available during retirement.

In this issue, the Northern Trust economics team explores the challenges facing Ireland in Brexit, the continuing demand for eurozone debt, and wage growth within U.S. states.

Nearly nine years into the current economic expansion Federal Reserve policy actions appear to be benign, as even after six increases, the federal funds rate remains less than 2%. Changes in the reserve, monetary and credit aggregates, which have always been the most important Fed levers both theoretically and empirically, indicate however that central bank policy has turned highly restrictive.

Last week, we introduced this topic by discussing the Cold War. This week, we will continue our analysis with a reflection on markets, an examination of hegemony and a discussion of the expansion of globalization and the rise of meritocracy and its discontents.

This is the third of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates with moderate to higher yields in addition to the initial 20 that I presented...

The acceleration in U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in March was in line with expectations, and likely a welcome development for Federal Reserve officials after a surprising string of soft inflation prints last year.

Equities experienced heightened volatility during the first quarter of 2018, with the S&P 500 Index surging 7.55% from Dec. 31 2017, through Jan. 26, 2018, before dropping nearly 8% through quarter-end.

There have been some violent market moves recently, but it’s important for investors to keep things in perspective.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for April? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Northern Trust’s economic team recaps recent economic developments and shares our monthly outlook for economic growth, inflation, employment and interest rates in the United States.

This is the second of a five-part series presenting 50 dividend growth stocks that I have screened for current fair value. With this article I will be covering 10 additional dividend growth research candidates.

So-called “smart-beta” strategies hasn’t been all that smart lately – at least not for the last five years. This article will examine why, whether it was predictable and the likelihood it will work better going forward.

Investment is about valuation. Speculation is about psychology. Both factors are unfavorable here. We’re observing the very early effects of risk-aversion in a hypervalued market. Based on the deterioration we’ve observed in our most reliable measures of market internals, investor preferences have subtly shifted toward risk-aversion, which opens up something of a trap-door.