Most Americans keep their retirement savings in an employer-sponsored 401(k) or in a traditional IRA that works the same way. To manage that money well, it is critical that the account’s benefits are understood: What is the net, after-tax outcome when you access your money?
May’s “flash” index of U.S. manufacturers registered a sharp decline to 50.6. This is only a preliminary reading, but if it turns out to be accurate, it would mark the slowest growth in the domestic manufacturing industry since September 2009
Productivity growth is vital to the economy and for our well-being. We take a look at recent and long-run trends, marvel at the progress of artificial intelligence, and explore diverging growth among nations.
Recent statistics on student loan debt have found some rather alarming trends. Not only are many parents prioritizing the financing of college for their children over their own retirement, but some are still paying off their own student debt—even into their 60s.
In talking with clients, colleagues and friends, it occurs to me that a lot of adults (especially investors) have heard terms like the “Greenspan Put” or the “Bernanke Put,” but I also observed that most people don’t really know what they mean.
Trade is back in the headlines, and on Twitter, with volatility sensitive to every tweet, tariff escalation and retaliation; but a look at the actual economic implications is in order.
Tariffs have had a negative impact on the U.S. economy, but a relatively limited one to date. Pain is obviously felt more in some areas than others, but the cumulative impact is growing and a continued escalation in trade tensions would further dampen growth.
With the S&P down a 2nd week, it’s important to remember that this decline comes on the heels of a very strong 4 month rally. This is to be expected, because no rally can go up forever without making a pullback/correction along the way.
I recently traded emails with someone who is provably smarter than me. He was very interested in buying a SPIA with payments linked to inflation, which is also called a real annuity. Real annuities are often depicted as perfect for a retiree. But after obtaining some quotes and running an analysis, I concluded the idea was “nuts.”
The CAPE 10 provides us with valuable information (as do other current metrics). However, it’s important that the information be used in the right way, as misusing it can lead to bad outcomes and the failure of plans.
There is simply no proof that outcomes have improved, or that risks have diminished from the proliferation of new ETF products. Instead, this has been little more than marketing to appeal to over-saturated advisors who desperately seek the next “story.”
Russ discusses why volatility has not been more severe, even though growth has softened.
Read the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
We believe that full portfolio control is more critical than ever in today’s investment landscape. Here’s why.
A collapse in the corporate bond market could rival the sub-prime debacle a decade ago, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
Why should emerging-market investors exercise caution in a rising market? With big unresolved challenges, we think it’s prudent to target companies with solid fundamentals and stable business models to overcome macroeconomic uncertainty and build a resilient portfolio for the long-term.
There is a strategy for creating titles. Used properly, it cuts through the noise and gets your content noticed. Once someone reads your content, strategically chosen subheaders within the body of your post keep them reading.
To be sure the time and effort you spend isn’t squandered, avoid these blogging mistakes – and learn from these 10 examples of how advisors built a great blog.
Some volatility has returned and we believe a pullback in U.S. equities is a healthy development in terms of both investor sentiment and valuations. But some cracks in economic growth may be emerging, and inflation could start to rise given the tight labor market, so investors should remain disciplined with an eye toward rebalancing in the face of volatility. Trade remains a weight on the confidence of business leaders, and if the dispute with China continues to escalate, stocks and the economy would likely suffer further.
Defined benefit plans, usually those sponsored by state and local governments, labor unions, and a dwindling number of private businesses. Many sponsors haven’t set aside the assets needed to pay the benefits they’ve promised to current and future retirees. They can delay the inevitable for a long time but not forever. And “forever” is just around the corner.
The rising cost of health care has been a political hot button issue for years, and Franklin Templeton’s 2019 “Retirement Income Strategies and Expectations (RISE)” survey revealed it remains a top concern today.
There’s a behavioral finance model of finance that colors investors’ decisions. Read our takeaways from Roger Ibbotson’s (and et al) study — Popularity: A Bridge Between Classical and Behavioral Finance...
Investors often ask how it’s possible to allocate capital to European stocks given the political risks that abound. We think the answer is to combine disciplined stock picking with risk-management tools that look for unintended threats to a portfolio.
There are five deadly mistakes that turn off prospective clients and squander your resources.
One might view the very comparison of present stock market conditions to 1929 market peak as exaggerated and preposterous, but then, one would be wrong. The fact is that on the valuation measures we find most strongly correlated with actual subsequent long-term and full-cycle market returns across history (and even in recent decades), current market valuations match or exceed those observed at the 1929 peak.
The April Employment Report was not as strong as it seems, but still consistent with moderate growth in the overall economy, tighter job market conditions, and moderate wage growth. Wage growth is likely being offset by faster productivity growth (although results will vary by firm and industry), restraining inflation pressures from the labor market.
A recent comment from Chamrath Palihapitiya last week suggests that may be the case. An award to an aspiring economist who wants to study ending recessions. But are #recessions a bad thing?
Apart from the 2014-15 supply shock, oil prices have proven to be extremely elastic more recently with only modest changes to either supply or demand having an outsized impact on oil prices. We look into the implications of that and find that oil prices could possibly rise a fair bit further this year even if they are already up 40% year-to-date.
I attended an advisor summit in Chicago this past week. On stage was a good friend from S&P Dow Jones Indices. He referenced an article S&P published last fall about poor quality in the popular “leveraged loan” segment of the corporate bond market. Dull, I know, but hang in with me for a short few paragraphs, I promise this week’s missive gets better.
In the decade since the global financial crisis, many investors have either actively steered—or ended up with—a large portion of their portfolios in investments tied to economic growth, namely stocks.
I will talk about the four different types of content you can create and what is unique about each one.
We believe the U.S. stock market will come down to a clash between one very positive forward-looking set of facts and a very negative set over the next ten years.
In today’s episode of Market Week in Review, Head of AIS Business Solutions Sophie Antal Gilbert was joined by Chief Investment Strategist, Erik Ristuben. Together, they talked U.S. GDP, earnings seasons and Iranian oil waivers.
We discuss a very limited form of moat – one driven by a low-cost advantage that is not a result of scale of operations.
U.S. equity market gains since the Christmas Eve 2018 low have been impressive, and we don’t think a recession is in the near-term future—but sentiment is extended and investors should be cautious about chasing gains at this point; either in the United States or emerging markets. A near-term pullback would likely be healthy and could afford a better opportunity for investors who are looking to add equity exposure. On the other hand, those investors whose portfolios are now holding an outsized equity allocation could use the latest strength to rebalance back toward targets.
The Treasury Department will sell bonds and run up the debt. That’s a given. Then there will be a recession, as there always is, and then the Federal Reserve will take interest rates down to the zero boundary (otherwise known as financial repression and the devastation of savers), followed by unprecedented amounts of quantitative easing… just like Japan has done.
One thing is for sure, investing means buying and selling, and these two activities aren’t free. Regardless of how promising the strategy looks on paper, its benefits will be reduced to some degree through its implementation. A worthy goal, therefore, is to limit the toll implementation takes on a strategy’s execution.
Non-fundamental demand shocks caused by naive retail investor fund flows help explain the momentum factor.
Advisors take pride in building, cultivating and nurturing their relationships with clients. But how do you form this type of connection with a person who is likely just researching you or your services online?
Should advisors be pushy about selling or be more discreet in our approach?
Before Glass-Steagall was abolished, financial institutions accounted for 20% of total corporate profits. Over the last 18 years, that amount has doubled to 40%. Banks do not innovate; their profits represent a missed opportunity for someone else to innovate.
Bill Sharpe has focused the most recent phase of his career on retirement-income analysis. A big part of that work has been the creation of an online textbook covering the various subjects related to retirement planning.
The “flight to passive” continues, with passively managed funds gaining $695 billion in inflows in 2018, versus $85 billion in net outflows from actively managed funds, according to Morningstar.
The US dollar is on the cusp of making a major move. The question is which way will it go, higher or lower? The directional movement of the US dollar will have significant asset performance implications once the tug of war between dollar bears and bulls is resolved.
With the run-up to the 2020 elections already underway, President Donald Trump’s tax cuts have triggered the biggest partisan rift in two decades and could play a big part in whether or not he is re-elected.
Investors were dour heading into 2019 and while the mood became sunnier in the first quarter, there’s still plenty for investors to ponder and many potential threats to the relative calm.
The division between active and passive strategies has devolved into a two-legged stool. A stronger investment environment needs a clear third option: the enhanced passive category.
Recession fears resurfaced at the end of 2018 as a combination of negative data surprises, communication blunders by the Fed, slowing growth overseas, and rising trade tensions triggered a selloff in risk assets that led many in the market to fear a recession was imminent.
It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of the risk. Although stocks have largely recovered from their recent pullback, given valuations and recent market behavior, it is useful to keep an eye on these factors.
Markets are caught between incoming data that point to slower global growth and forward-looking factors that suggest improvement later in the year. With the pause in U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes, we expect modest recovery in global cycle conditions.
